Accelerating Future

Opposites day. The following is a comment dredged from right-wing blog Atlas Shrugs, a post entitled Super Weapons: The End of the World as we Know It:

As I noted in my email to you yesterday, there are people who discuss the “Singularity” who are nerds, Utopians, and weirdoes, but that doesn’t mean that it isn’t a real oncoming event. It just means that it is an oncoming event which is not as yet very defined, and therefore, it is, for some people akin to a conspiracy theory, or ghost story, they can tell each other to entertain themselves.

Forget about those people.

The truth is, we, as a human race, are on the cusp of becoming very powerful in three ways which we previously thought only God could be powerful -

1) Omniscience – we are increasing our powers of surveillance, and it is not anymore entirely inconceivable to think that eventually every human being on Earth will be tracked 24 hours a day.

2) Omnipotence – we are now able to desroy all life on Earth. Eventually the technology to do so will become more and more well known, and inexpensive and this power will move down the ladder from being the purview of a state to being within the realm of possibility of an individual terrorist.

3) Immortality – With the advent of bioengineering and the mapping of the Genetic Code, the DNA sequence, man is learning the “switches” which control the processes of aging and disease. Eventually, it is entirely conceivable that man will figure out how to make himself live indefinately. Considering how bored and angry so many people are with their 70 allotted years, imagine the problems an indefinate lifetime would cause.

You are correct to say “technology is advancing apace and we had better be ahead of the curve.”

Others use the term the Singularity to describe this field of interest.

I call it Pre-Futurism.

I believe we have moved out of the age of Postmodernism (which was always a transitory age, lacking any coherent ideology anyway), and into the Pre-Future Age.

The Pre-Future Age is characterized by the inevitability of technological changes which will bring about MASSIVE moral challenges for humanity.

We must learn, as human beings, how to take on the challenges of our new “Omnipotence, Omniscience, and Immortality.”

Previous ages in the history of man have been mediated by the texts of religion and philosophy. When we refer to the Renaissance, the period of the Greeks, the Age of Faith, or the Modern period, we are always referring to the idea that culture stuggles with certain ideologies; Greek philosophy, the Christian worldview, man and his art, Communism, etc.

The age of Pre-Futurism is the first age, since the dawn of history (the written word) in which man will be struggling with the elemental things of life.

In the pre-historic period, man was struggling with the physical elements of nature. Will it rain? Will the crops come, etc.?

In the Pre-Future Age, man is struggling against the limits of his own nature, of his own ability to be moral.

We will have to turn to God for the answers.

Seems like they have a bit of a clue.

If “Pre-Future” is now, then the actual Future ought to bring some amazing challenges, won’t it?

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Browsing the Methuselah Mouse Prize’s website, I came across a member of the Three Hundred, David Thompson, that works with the dead daily. Here’s what he had to say:

I am a funeral director by trade and have seen more than my share of death. It is never pretty, and some of the things I have seen are terrifying. If you have ever thought about how peaceful someone looked in a casket, let me let you in on a little secret, they didn’t look that way before we embalmed them. I have yet to pick someone up from the morgue that looked glad to be there.

The day will come for most of us when death approaches and we will go through a list of things we wish we had done. If only I had started my diet earlier, why didn’t I keep my new years resolution to exercise? Don’t let wishing you had donated to the Methuselah Mouse Prize be one of the last things that goes through your mind.

Before you know it one of my friends or I will be coming for you, put us out of work before we do.

Chilling.

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Tyler Emerson reports on the newest changes with the Singularity Institute, including new offices in San Francisco at the Letterman Digital Arts Center, courtesy of Clarium Capital:

…and the hiring of the new Director of Development, Allison Taguchi:

…who has an amazing 12 years of fundraising experience, working with UNICEF, US Department of Education, US Department of Defense, Oakland Military Institute, Boys & Girls Clubs of America, SeaStar Foundation, University of Hawaii Biotech Research Center, Rotary International, University of San Diego, and the Mitsubishi Foundation. Now she’s working for the Singularity.

Not to mention the huge success of the recent Stanford Singularity Summit:

Meanwhile, SIAI interns Nick Hay, Peter de Blanc, and Marcello Herreshoff are down in Santa Clara with Eliezer Yudkowsky, working on reflective decision theory problems, among other things:

Herreshoff on left, Hay on right.

The ultra-rare pictures of SIAI interns are courtesy of Google images.

How to react to all this?

To describe the situation in layman’s terms, the Singularity Institute is up to its waist in win right now. But it needs more help from readers like you to have a chance at its lofty goal – Friendly AI.

SIAI is one of the world’s leading AGI research institutes, a real powerhouse. See job openings here.

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The U.S., Indian, Russian, Chinese, and Japanese governments are spending billions of dollars on something they call “nanotechnology”. The leaders of these countries are calling nanotechnology critical to the future of their national economies and security. But what is nanotechnology? To them, it involves any branch of materials science or manufacturing that invokes extremely small particles or coatings. These particles or coatings, when added to typical everyday products like sunscreen, can result in marginal product performance improvements. For example, there are the infamous nano-pants.

Because governments are pumping billions into the area, it pays to call your work nanotechnology, but is it really? When Eric Drexler popularized the term in the 1980s, he wasn’t talking about stain-resistant pants, but rather molecular manufacturing – dense arrays of molecular arms building macro-scale products by working in parallel. This is “bottom-up” manufacturing, building products atom by atom, rather than “top-down” manufacturing, where we take large chunks of matter and chip at them until we get what we want. The difference in performance and speed is predicted to be phenomenal.

Very few researchers are actually working on molecular manufacturing, the “true” nanotechnology. And very little of this government money I’ve mentioned actually gets to them. But they do exist, and are supported – but more frequently by working professionals who donate than by huge governments handing out grants. These researchers recently got together and put up a new website – Nanofactory Collaboration – that outlines some of the key milestones to be overcome before we can have a desktop molecular manufacturing system, and invites researchers to join the effort.

Nanofactories will be profoundly transformative when they roll out from these researchers’ brains to the labs and then to store shelves. It is currently unknown exactly how much work will be required to implement a nanofactory, and the technology could be as far as two decades away, but one thing is certain – when these machines do arrive, they will usher in a new Industrial Revolution, and in hindsight will be seen as far more significant than the invention of the atomic bomb.

The core researchers leading this collaboration are Robert A. Freitas Jr. and Ralph C. Merkle, located in the SF Bay Area and Atlanta, respectively.

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From the Singularitarian Principles:

The Singularity holds out the possibility of winning the Grand Prize, the true Utopia, the best-of-all-possible-worlds – not just freedom from pain and stress or a sterile round of endless physical pleasures, but the prospect of endless growth for every human being – growth in mind, in intelligence, in strength of personality; life without bound, without end; experiencing everything we’ve dreamed of experiencing, becoming everything we’ve ever dreamed of being; not for a billion years, or ten-to-the-billionth years, but forever… or perhaps embarking together on some still greater adventure of which we cannot even conceive. That’s the Apotheosis.

If any utopia, any destiny, any happy ending is possible for the human species, it lies in the Singularity.

There is no evil I have to accept because “there’s nothing I can do about it”. There is no abused child, no oppressed peasant, no starving beggar, no crack-addicted infant, no cancer patient, literally no one that I cannot look squarely in the eye. I’m working to save everybody, heal the planet, solve all the problems of the world.

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So the term “Artificial Intelligence” is now 50 years old. It’s been getting a lot of attention this month thanks to that fact. But what bothers me is, even if we could build a human-level AI today, we’d have no clue how to ensure that it stays nice to humans once it gains the ability to reprogram its goal system. So a successful breakthrough in AI could hurt us easily more than it helps us.

Also troubling is that anyone who gives this issue much thought seems to go off in wacky-and-wild directions or blindly anthropomorphize the dickens out of AI. For example there’s this guy.

It seems like there are several fundamental, indispensible insights into the structure of this problem, which has been called “Friendly AI”. Oddly, it seems like they were uncovered all at once by a single guy, Eliezer Yudkowsky, who is possibly the only person on the planet who has thought about the problem long and hard enough to be qualified to talk about it. In most areas like this, there are multiple experts, each with something worthwhile to say, but when it comes to Friendly AI, people just seem to fall flat. Here are some of the common suggestions, and why they are ultimately wrong:

Suggestion: “Let’s hardcode a set of morals and ethics into the AI.”

Problem: Hard-coded morals are clumsy in their inflexibility, and tend to contain loopholes and ambiguities which lead to unintended consequences. For example, in an Asimov story, robots programmed with the imperative “protect the human race” started infringing on basic human rights by getting too invasive about protecting people. We forget that when we tell each other to follow certain moral rules, they are being understood by a human with a brain that contains a massive number of automatically inbuilt assumptions, considerations, heuristics, and pieces of common sense. This complexity is unique to our species, and wouldn’t just be there by default in an AI we build.

Suggestion: “Let’s train the AI with positive and negative feedback.”

Problem: This approach is far too easy to mess up if implemented without any supporting architecture. For example, an AI trained on pictures of smiling human faces might end up valuing depictions of smiles without knowing the underlying facts and subtleties about why smiley faces are supposed to be good. We might assume it will figure them out automatically, but this is anthropomorphic. Human morality is a foreign tongue to a mind built from scratch, and teaching such a mind about morality will be like teaching a bug how to do calculus – it can theoretically be done, but you would need the technology to actually modify the bug’s brain on the neural level and give it the cognitive modules to recognize the problem, come up with a solution, and communicate it somehow. The latter actually seems significantly easier than Friendly AI.

Suggestion: “The AI will get smart enough to figure out right and wrong for itself.”

Problem: Morality, as we understand it, is a medley of terribly complex conglomerations of beliefs, motivations, biases, and actions unique to our particular species. There is no objective morality out there. Sometimes it just feels there is, because our brains program us to take our moral beliefs very seriously. They just seem so obvious that we are blind to the terabytes and terabytes of neurological complexity and millions of years of evolutionary history behind that obviousness. If we made modifications to only 1% of that information content, it could lead us down entirely different moral roads, and we’d feel like those were the real Good.

Suggestion: “It’s okay, we can just pull the plug if the AI is bad.”

Problem: As AI gets more sophisticated, it will become capable of outsmarting us, finding its own power sources, fabricating or ordering new body/brain parts, inventing entirely new technology, outperforming the best human experts in every field, think and act thousands or even millions of times faster than us, and possess whatever other powers come with being smarter-than-human. An ape can’t predict what a human can do, and we can’t predict what a superintelligent AI will do. We can predict it will have goals (the ones we gave it, or the ones it gives itself based on self-revisions), and take actions based on those goals, but we can’t be certain the meaning of the goals will stay the same over time, or the physical consequences of executing these goals will be what we expect, or even compatible with our continued existence.

The quick fixes people think of when first confronting the problem will simply not do. Therefore, the human species has an obligation to hire people to think about the problem full time, until there is a satisfactory solution to implement. Of course there are those, like Melanie Swan, who think that Friendly AI is impossible, and no matter what goals we program into the first AI, they will be thrown out the window. Nick Bostrom disagrees, as do many others. If an AI throws its goals out the window, it will throw them out because other goals demanded it – not because the Universe reaches into the AI’s brain and changes its goal content.

There will be a lot of flexibility in the creation of AI goal systems. It will be possible to build a mind that cares about nothing but cupcakes, with its only goal being to preserve that goal. Even if this AI then goes on to read the entire Internet, it will not matter one iota. If a goal is totally self-preserving then that is the final word. Humans can be stubborn, but not as stubborn as a mind that is not designed to be open to social persuasion or human moral discourse.

Want to look at Yudkowsky’s ideas on the Friendly AI problem? One short version is here, with longer versions to be found in “Creating Friendly AI” and “Coherent Extrapolated Volition”. His ideas on the topic are constantly changing and improving, so if you want to see more, donate to SIAI.

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What follows is an abridged list of human maladies. May they all be destroyed before the century is out.

abscesses, acne, addictions, adenitis, adenoids, AIDS, albinism, allergies, ALS (Lou Gehrig’s disease), Alzheimer’s disease, amnesia, anemia, aneurysms, angina, anorexia nervosa, anthrax, anxiety attacks, aphasia, appendicitis, apoplexy, arteriosclerosis, arthritis, asphyxia, asthma, astigmatism, athlete’s foot, attention deficit disorder (ADD), back aches, bedsores, Bell’s palsy, beriberi, bipolar disorder (manic-depression), birth defects, blackouts, bladder infections, blemishes, blindness, blisters, bloating, boils, bone cancer, bone spurs, botulism, bowlegs, breast cancer, brain cancer, breech presentations, Bright’s disease, brittle bone disease, broken bones, bronchitis, bruises, bulimia, bunions, bursitis, calcinosis, canker sores, cardiac dysrhythmia, cardiomyopathy, carpal tunnel syndrome, cataracts, cellulitis, cerebral palsy, cervical cancer, cervicitis, chapped lips, chickenpox, chlamydia, choking, cholera, cleft lips and palates, clubfoot (talipes), cold sores, colic, colitis, colon cancer, color blindness, comas, common cold, concussions, congestion, congestive heart failure, conjunctivitis, constipation, convulsions, coronary occlusions, coughs, Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease, cystic fibrosis, cystitis, cysts, dandruff, dangerous plants and animals, deafness, deformities, dehydration, delirium, delirium tremens, delusions, dementia, dental problems, depression, dermatitis, detached retinas, deviated septums, diabetes, diaper rash, diarrhea, diphtheria, dislocated joints, dizziness, Down’s syndrome, droughts, dysentery, dyslexia, dysphagia, dysphasia, dysuria, ear infections, earthquakes, Ebola virus, ectopic pregnancies, eczema, edema, elephantiasis, embolisms, emphysema, encephalitis, endocarditis, endometriosis, enteritis, epidemics, epididymitis, epilepsy, Epstein-Barr virus, erectile dysfunction (ED), excessive ear wax, fainting, fallen arches (flat foot), farsightedness (hyperopia), fevers, fibrillation, fibromyalgia, fibrosis, fistulas, flatulence, floods, frostbite, gallstones, ganglions, gangrene, gastrinomas, gastritis, gastroenteritis, germs, gingivitis, glaucoma, goiter, gonorrhea, gout, granuloma, Graves’ disease, halitosis, hallucinations, hay fever, headaches, heart attacks, heartburn, heart murmurs, hematomas, hemiplegia, hemophilia, hemorrhages, hemorrhagic fever, hemorrhoids, hepatitis (A,B&C), hernias, herniated and slipped disks, herpes, hiccups, high blood pressure (hypertension), HIV, hives, Hodgkin’s disease, humpbacks (kyphosis), Huntington’s chorea, hurricanes, hydrocephalus, hyperactivity, hypercholesterolemia, hyperemia, hyperglycemia, hyperthermia, hyperthyroidism, hypertonicity, hyperuricemia, hypochondria, hypoglycemia, hypothermia, hypothyroidism, impacted teeth, incontinence, indigestion (dyspepsia), infarctions, infections, infertility, infestations, inflammations, influenza, insanity, insomnia, iritis, irritable bowels, ischemia, itches, jaundice, Karposi’s sarcoma, keratitis, keratosis, kidney failure, kidney stones, knock-knees, labor pains, laryngitis, Legionnaires’ disease, leprosy, lesions, lethargy, leukemia, lice, lipidosis, lipomas, liposarcoma, liver cancer, lockjaw/tetanus, lordosis, low blood pressure (hypotension), lumbago, lung cancer, lupus, Lyme disease, lymphangitis, lymphedema, lymphocytosis, lymphomas, macular degeneration, malaria, malocclusions, manias, mastitis, measles, melancholia, melanomas, meningitis, menorrhagia, menstrual cramps, mental illnesses, mental retardation, migraines, miscarriages (spontaneous abortions), mononucleosis, monsoons, morning sickness, multiple personality disorder, multiple sclerosis, multiple system atrophy, mumps, muscle cramps and spasms, muscular dystrophy, myalgia, myasthenia gravis, myelitis, narcolepsy, nausea, nearsightedness (myopia), necrosis, nephritis, nephrosis, nervous breakdowns, nervous tics, neuralgia, neuritis, neuroses, night blindness, nosebleeds, obesity, osteitis, osteodystrophy, osteoporosis, otitis, ovarian cancer, Paget’s disease, pain, palsy, pancreatic cancer, paralysis, paranoia, parasitosis, Parkinson’s disease, pericarditis, periodontitis, peritonitis, phantom pain, pharyngitis, phlebitis, phobias, pimples, pinched nerves, plagues, pleurisy, pneumonia, poisons, polio, Pott’s disease, premature births, premenstrual syndrome (PMS), prions, prostate cancer, psoriasis, psychoses, psychosomatic illnesses, ptomaine poisoning, pulled muscles, quicksand, rabies, rashes, Raynaud’s disease, resistance to curative drugs, retinitis, retinitis pigmentosa, retroviruses, Reye’s syndrome, Rh incompatibility, rheumatic fever, rheumatism, rhinoviruses, rickets, riptides, Rocky Mountain spotted fever, rubella, ruptures, salmonella poisoning, sandstorms, sarcomas, scabies, scarlet fever, schizophrenia, sclerosis, scoliosis, scurvy, seizures, senility, septicemia, severe thunder storms, shingles, shock, sickle-cell anemia, skin cancer, sleep apnea, smallpox, sneezes, sore throats, sores, spastic colons, speech disorders, spina bifida, sprains, stillbirths, stomach cancer, strep throats, strokes, styes, sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS), sunburn, sunstroke, swelling, syphilis, tabes, tardive dyskinesia, Tay-Sachs disease, teething pains, temper tantrums, tartar, tendinitis, testicular cancer, thrombosis, tidal waves, tinnitus, TMJ, tonsillitis, tooth decay, torn cartilage, tornadoes, Tourette’s syndrome, toxemia, toxic shock syndrome, transplant rejection, trauma, tremors, trench foot, trichinosis, tropical storms, tuberculosis, tumors, tunnel vision, typhoid fever, typhus, ulcers, uremia, urethritis, uterine cancer, vaginitis, varicose veins, vertigo, viruses, vomiting, warts, whooping cough, wounds, yeast infections, yellow fever

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The above is from the recent CNN article on the impact of the Internet. Out of the 3% of people that said the Internet has made their life worse, my guess is that a third of them are just joking, a third of them are people over 65 who are frustrated, and a third of them are people sad that the Internet made them addicted to porn (seriously).

The poll is interesting because it shows that there exists at least one technology that is almost universally loved. Of course, there is surely more than one. Other technologies we love include writing, cooking, building, transportation, manufacturing, energy, and many more. Yes, the listed technologies are quite broad, but when we dislike one variant, we generally tend to like another. For example, we might dislike nuclear power but enjoy solar.

The idea that there can be a technology everyone loves means that, in the future, there are likely to be more invented. Will there be a point at which we say “enough”, like Bill McKibben? I think so, but that level will be different for different people, which will inadvertantly segregate themselves based on these decisions, which may lead to a movement to develop a standard technology level that everyone can accept.

Of course, this speculation is based on the assumption that we don’t blow ourselves up or governments don’t artificially restrain technological progress. (The former being significantly more likely than the latter.)

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