Brian Wang’s Technology Predictions
One of those people who really 'gets it' when it comes to nanotechnology is Brian Wang. He's been active with the Foresight Institute for over a decade, and more recently has been an invaluable voice on the CRN Global Task Force. I just came across his Predictions for a Technological Future, a short piece that was a part of Rocky Rawstern's NanoNews-Now. Here is a sample:
Bulk nanomaterials predictions
M5 Fiber 9.8 Gpa 2008-2011
Carbon nanotube fiber inexpensive and with over 50GPa tensile strength 2014-2018
Gecko mimicing wallcrawling suits for military and enthusiasts 2008-2012
Bionano
Customized cells 2010-2014
20%+ efficient genetically engineered algae ponds to generate hydrogen 2011-2016
Almost all fish (for food) comes from massive ocean ranches (over 100 ranches, each larger than a cubic mile in area) 2015-2025
Future Crime: Genetic modification of baby DNA to pass false paternity lawsuit 2010-2020
Conventional tech predictions
Free voice communication dominant 2007-2011
Wireless superbroadband (50-1000Mbps) 2009-2012
Fiber to the home (100Mbps-1000Mbps) 2010-2015
Nextgen communication (1000Mbps-10000Mbps) 2013-2020
HALE super antennas and long duration balloons 2009-2012
You can read the rest by following the link. His advanced nanotechnology blog is also a superb source of scientifically grounded information. There's only one problem I have with his predictions - as with many futurists, they seem to largely ignore the possibility of superintelligence. Superintelligence is a different beast than all other technological advances, because unlike inanimate products, superintelligences can invent things on their own, including ways to make themselves more effective. And when they really get going, they will get going fast. The second humans stop being the underlying driver of progress, all bets are off. In Hofstadterese, this is called JOOTS - jumping out of the system.
August 3rd, 2006 - 13:31
> superintelligences … invent things …..make
> themselves more effective….
> get going fast…. this is called JOOTS
> jumping out of the system.
Invention, self-improvement, and speed do not make for JOOTS. To do that, you need to truly step out of some rule system. Superintelligence may well do so, but this does not follow from the preceeding statements, as the words “this is called” seem to imply.
August 4th, 2006 - 01:01
Thanks for linking to my predictions piece.
In regards to superintelligences:
Definitely expanding what we already have with expert systems. As good and in some cases superior AI performance in specific and narrow contexts. Linking contexts and databases via webservices and next generation architectures.
Getting a generalized learning system that will be able to get up to speed on a lot of useful technology to bootstrap itself to both greater capabilities and to enable faster technological development. I think this is a tougher set of goals. I also think the system will benefit from people helping it to run and perform better.
Achieving the kind of success with true superintelligence is a big societal impactor and accelerator of developments. Things would start happening faster. How it plays out depends on the system that gets developed.
I was surprised by the recent live monitoring of mouse neurons and the proteins they make. So more rapid reverse engineering of the brain could enable true AI sooner. I may not be appreciating all of the ways that superintelligence will happen sooner. I will try to give it more consideration for my next version.
I will be working to expand and update the predictions. I need to add metamaterials and synthetic biology. I continue to get more optimistic about quantum computers.
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