Disclaimer: if this post bothers you, please do spend some time coming up with potential countermeasures. The point is to encourage people to think about these types of risk in more detail, so we can implement solutions before the unthinkable happens.
Assuming a 1-megaton nuclear weapon, what are the optimal delivery points to maximize global damage and chaos? We are assuming a 1 megaton bomb due to simplicity – this yield is about twice that of the most powerful fission bomb produced by the US, the Mk 18, which used 60 kg of enriched uranium. With nanofactories, building extremely high-quality centrifuges will become easy, making large quantities of enriched uranium accessible to any organization with uranium ore. We will be able to do with a few centrifuges what previously required hundreds or even thousands.
A few facts about uranium: uranium ore is more common than gold, mercury, silver, or tungsten, and is found in substantial quantities worldwide, including in southern Australia, Africa, and the Middle East. It is the 48th most abundant element in the earth’s crust. Pitchblende uranium (1% pure) is available on eBay for approximately $20/kg. The US Department of Energy has stockpiled 704,000 metric tons of uranium in the form of hexaflourine solids.
In this scenario, it does not really matter who is dropping the bomb. The point is to create as much mayhem as possible. This analysis leans towards detonation targets that do damage to the United States in particular, both because the US has many enemies, and because many countries are economically and politically dependent on a smoothly-functioning US. The attack might be a set-up for a larger operation, occur in the context of a war, or simply be an isolated event. Potential orchestrators of the attack include rogue states like North Korea or Iran, criminal organizations, jihadi organizations, or more sophisticated groups like circles of well-educated and wealthy Americans exploiting abrupt technological transitions to gain power.
In roughly ascending order of severity, the options are:
6. Destroy a large portion of Tehran, Iran.
The Israelis would immediately be blamed, and Iranian troops would likely be dispatched to Israel under half an hour after the event. Many other countries including the EU and the US would get involved, and the result would be a very long and very expensive war. Iran’s GDP is approximately 10x that of Iraq, and if other Muslim countries like Syria, Pakistan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey got involved, the West would be dealing with a fanatic multinational force with plenty of resources. Think of the earth as an egg, and the fault line between Muslim radicalists and Christian radicalists as the breakage formed when the egg is cracked.
5. Nuke Washington, D.C.
When Congress is in session, of course. Although Washington, D.C. is a city of great political significance, it is not a critical economic cog relative to other large global cities. At the very least, every member of Congress would be wiped out, along with thousands of important ambassadors, lobbyists, political thinkers, and of course the Administration. Eliminating Washington, D.C. is not the worst thing a terrorist or rogue country could do, as there have been extensive plans in place since the Cold War for establishing a shadow government in case of this eventuality. It would throw the American people into a frenzy significantly greater than 9-11, however.
4. Destabilize an oceanic shield volcano next to a methane clathrate deposit.
This one is subtle. A couple weeks ago Phil Bowermaster posted about the risks of methane clathrate. Essentially, when this stuff melts, it is 20 times worse than carbon dioxide when it comes to contributing to global warming, and can be found easily in half-kilometer-thick deposits on the ocean floor. There are undersea mountains with precarious peaks that have been slowly destabilizing over thousands of years, and with the right placement, a nuclear blast could start a catastrophic landslide. If the result is as massive as large historic landslides, it could displace more than 100 cubic kilometers of rock, creating a debris trail covering tens of square kilometers. The kinetic energy of the avalanche could melt 40+ cu km of methane clathrate, potentially kickstarting a global warming feedback effect, with all its nasty ramifications. Beneath the methane clathrate is even more methane in gas form.
Fictional expositions of the possible effects of severe global warming can be found in John Barnes’ Mother of Storms and Clive Cusser’s Fire Ice. For the first one, think of four storms like Giant Red Spots constantly raking the earth’s surface for years on end, and for the second, tsunamis followed by complete global climate change. This target is only rated 4th out of 6 because of a relatively low probability that global warming would actually be accelerated all that quickly. If it were successful, however, it might be better placed in 2nd place.
Here is an excerpt from a website on volcanic landslides:
Volcanoes appear to be permanent fixtures on the landscape, but in fact are inherently unstable structures composed of both strong (thick lava flows) and weak (fragmental and hydrothermally altered) materials. Large-scale collapse of volcanic edifices, first witnessed and documented at the start of the 1980 Mount St. Helens eruption, is now known to be a common volcanic process. Large volcanic landslides can occur with volumes exceeding a cubic kilometer at continental volcanoes and several orders of magnitude larger at oceanic shield volcanoes. These collapses can produce extremely mobile debris avalanches that can travel at high velocities in some cases for tens of kilometers beyond the base of a volcano. This process, once thought to be extremely rare, has been documented at hundreds of volcanoes worldwide. Repeated episodes of growth and collapse have occurred at many volcanoes, and large-volume volcanic landslides have been found to be the most common catastrophic destructive process at volcanoes.
3. Nuke New York City, particularly Manhattan.
Here, people are packed so closely that a million casualties from a nuclear attack, even if “only” a 1-megaton nuclear attack, is harrowingly realistic. According to this nuclear weapon effects calculator, the thermal radiation radius (3rd degree burns) of a 1-megaton nuclear blast is ~11.7 km. Calculating the area from the radius gives us 430 square kilometers of people with 3rd degree burns. The blast radius would extend well into adjacent boroughs. A million deaths would wipe out 1/300 of the American population. A more impressive 10-megaton explosion would triple the blast radius. The global psychological and economic effects of such an attack are unknown, but would obviously be very severe.
2. Knock off a chunk of Cumbre Viejo at La Palma in the Canary Islands.
Explosions on mountaintop, rocks into ocean, waves into coast. Walls of water into cities. You get the idea. The wave goes around the globe three full times before it dissipates. Not sure if this one is worse than blowing up Manhattan.
1. Nuke the Yellowstone Caldera.
Hundreds of cubic kilometers of magma at high pressure. A five kilometer cap that limits eruptions to only every million years or so. A well-placed explosion that destroys that cap in the space of a few seconds. A lava plume ten times taller than Mt. Everest, followed by perpetual and global night that lasts for years. This one requires a nuke slightly larger than 1-megatons – 20-megatons ought to be sufficient.
“When a supervolcano goes off, it is an order of magnitude greater than a normal eruption. It produces energy equivalent to an impact with a comet or an asteroid. You can try diverting an asteroid, but there is nothing at all you can do about a supervolcano.” – Dr. Ted Nield
“The eruption will throw out cubic kilometers of rock, ash, dust, sulfur dioxide and so on into the upper atmosphere, where it will reflect incoming solar radiation, forcing down temperatures on the earth’s surface. It would be the equivalent of a nuclear winter. The effects would last for four or five years with crops failing and the whole ecosystem breaking down.” – Robert B. Trombley, Ph.D.
The question is, why would anyone go this far? I can think of many possible motivations, and being psychotic is by no means a necessary prerequisite for wanting to do something like this. There’s this near-universal cultural misapprehension that you have to be crazy to do something horrible. To the contrary. You need only be ambitious, and elitist enough to disregard human lives. The first motivation which comes to mind is the creation of an Aristoi class:
Aristoi comes from ancient Greek and means “the best”. The term was used to describe the noblemen in ancient Greece, those of a status above the common people. Aristoi were members of the aristocracy and regarded as closer to God.
Aristoi is a 1993 science-fiction novel by Walter Jon Williams. The novel describes a technologically advanced society with a rigid hierarchy of social classes. The top class, the “Aristoi,” are given the ultimate responsibility: that of managing nanotechnology.
With the right tech, living in conditions of clouded skies for a few yearswould not be difficult. I’m not talking tech from hundreds of years into the future, but only a couple decades. When you can be on the surface and everyone else is forced underground, it isn’t hard to start establishing global superiority.
Update: Yes, I know that other major cities are also potentially damaging targets, but it would have been silly to include more than three when I was also focusing on bombing natural features, y’know?
Update #2: This post has received over 100,000 views in the week since it was posted, bringing home the point that everyone already knew: controversy sells. Usually I write for transhumanists, not the general Internet community, so I may have said a few things that sounded crazy to many people. To remove further distractions, those things have now been deleted. This post was discussed on Google Groups, at the Immortality Institute, on Metafilter, and the SL4 mailing list. Here are the google results.
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Nice Article Mike. I linked to it and submitted it to Digg.
I am not convinced about the Iran scenario. Isreal actually doing the nuking would probably hit all of its enemies at once. Only Pakistan would be able to respond nuclearly. I do not see the scenario playing out. I also do not see the opposition you describe as 10 X Nazi Germany. Even if that is true. If the 10X WW2 Germans lasted longer and came up against massively nuclear superior force then they still lose.
Tokyo could be a on the list. Economic crisis. Pull money out of the USA to rebuild.
Saudi oil fields.
You are sick, dont you have other things to think about then this?. Your description of the environmental effects of exploding nuclear weapons in vulcanos and oceans deaps are most probably false. Your idea of causing tsunamis by exploding nuclear weapons is totaly unrealistic. Nuclear weapos are maybee powerfull but there are not powerfull compaired to forces of nature such as earthquakes.
Why would anyone nuke Tehran, what would the purpose be?
Don’t you have anything better to do than read this article and make dumb accusations about things I’m sure the author/other readers has/have considered?
Uh, you can’t think of a reason some folks might want to nuke tehran? Cuz I can.
Wow! Interesting, not “Nice”…
Had a nightmare recently Michael?
Did you eat or drank something that does not fits you?
So, yes, this is worrying but SO MANY other problems are worrying, which one to pick?
Our Islamic friends caring for us?
http://www.haloscan.com/comments/dirtydingus/JPcomments/
Our Israeli & US friends “managing” the Middle East?
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=viewArticle&code=CHO20060726&articleId=2824
Our beloved Oil companies loosing their marbles
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/specials/chi-oilsafari2-htmlstory,0,3163462.special
Time to BOOST the Singularity a little bit may be?
Or we shall have to be REALLY, REALLY smart.
http://gadfly.igc.org/papers/cornuc.htm
It’s much easier to tell people what they want to hear than to tell them what they need to hear.
This is “Why It’s Hard to Debate a Cornucopian”
http://resourceinsights.blogspot.com/2006/07/why-its-hard-to-debate-cornucopian.html
Smile…
Knock off a chunk of Cumbre Viejo at La Palma in the Canary Islands.
Explosions on mountaintop, rocks into ocean, waves into coast. Walls of water into cities. You get the idea. The wave goes around the globe three full times before it dissipates. Not sure if this one is worse than blowing up Manhattan.
…………………………………………
Yes, it is. MUCH worse! Look at the wave heigth in New York (Manhattan would buy it anyway), Boston, Baltimore, Washington DC (The Ches Bay focuses the wave), Norfolk, Virginia Beach, Maimi, New Orleans (diffraction effects)…
Very sobering, Mike. And disturbingly plausible. The end of the Cold War and the potential for nanotechnology has overshadowed the ongoing problem of nuclear weapons. It’s a shadow that now perpetually looms over human civilization.
Ummm, you would need WAY less than 1 megaton (a few kilotons, maybe) to split that volcanic island – the crack is already there and it is REALLY close to wiping out the US Eastern seaboard (delay time for wave propagation to the US on the order of 9 hours). I haven’t checked Europe and Africa…
You are sick, dont you have other things to think about then this?
I’m quite healthy, actually. My aim is to get people to stop watching television and start thinking of ways to cancel out these risks.
What about nuking Oprah Winfrey? Think of the mayhem amongst her gimungous fanbase! Think of the ratings implosion suffered by King World Productions! Oh, the humanity! :)
One of which would wipe out big chunks of the UK in pretty short order with no way people could stop, or even mitigate it?
It’s easy to stop, with nanofactories or lots of conventional explosives. You just blow up the mountain bit by bit, letting it fall into the ocean incrementally, or create a huge cushion out of low density foam adjacent to Cumbre Vieja, and let it slide into the water slowly. The fact that you aren’t thinking of alternative solutions shows that you are accepting the show’s conclusions without critical analysis – so my comment stands: stop watching television.
Jean-Luc Delatre:
You realize you are linking to an *old* mirror of Wikipedia with your references.com Denial link?
Michael Anissimov:
Pretty good list. I thought you’d miss the Yellowstone supervolcano, but you didn’t; on that subject, it’s too bad that the Siberian supervolcanos have plugged themselves. Incidentally, have you checked Exit Mundi for some other ideas? (http://www.exitmundi.nl/exitmundi.htm)
I have to agree with the others that I don’t think nuking Tehran would be #1 on such a list. I mean, Iran supposedly doesn’t yet have nukes, so that limits the multipliers available to such a shot, and most of the outrage would be in the minority Shi’a anyways.
Now, I’d prefer nuking either Mecca or Moscow. If one did a nuclear shot on Mecca in the right place, one’d render a large fraction of the most holy places for all Islam (Sunnis, Shi’a, and Sufi alike) a glassy patch in the sand, and if you timed it for the peak of the pilgrimages… “during the month of the Hajj, the city of Mecca must cope with as many as four million pilgrims.”
I don’t think I will need to elaborate further on the consequences of the immense casualties on a NYC scale or the resultant religious furor.
Moscow is an interesting possibility both because it is a large city and capital of a major country, but because Russia is a nuclear power which has notoriously lax security on its arms. If Russians could be outraged enough (and nuking Moscow ought to do that if nothing else), they might start engaging in nuclear terrorism of their own.
You do realize that is another nation that you are proposing to “blow upâ€, right? The fact that you aren’t thinking of all the consequences shows that you are not informed on the complete situation – so my comment is: watch more NEWS and stay away from the cartoons.
One would imagine, should someone approach said other nation with facts showing that the mountain *will* fall into the sea and kill untold hundreds of millions as well as destroy the mountain anyway, that said nation would be only too happy to accept a well-thought-out alternative that would end in much less death.
Why on earth would you think anyone would try this by force except as an absolute last resort?
Sheesh, not too dark, eh?
Didn’t see anything about EMP. Think I read somewhere that a sufficiently powerful a-bomb at the correct altitude would disrupt the electrical grid and most electronics (unshielded) of the entire US. Less deadly/physically destructive, but massively disruptive on a global scale.
Peace out,
Slyborg
Didn’t see anything about EMP. Think I read somewhere that a sufficiently powerful a-bomb at the correct altitude would disrupt the electrical grid and most electronics (unshielded) of the entire US. Less deadly/physically destructive, but massively disruptive on a global scale.
……………………………………………
Very, very bad for the technologically-based especially if you enhance the pulse a bit (cesium-group metals, perhaps?) and focus on the financial centers.
Look around NOW at nations that currently exist. Does that look like something that ANY would accept? Heck, they can’t even agree to “stop shooting†Nice dream, though.
Oh, believe me, I did. And you know, I couldn’t find a single instance of an imminent recognized natural semi-global disaster that the world was having difficulty dealing with. Global warming was the closest I can get to that, and that’s by far not accepted as factual by the majority yet. Nice strawman argument, though.
The numbering is confusing. I first thought that you meant #1 as the most severe option, and others seem to have been similarly confused. Would have been better to start from #6 and count down to Yellowstone at #1.
Michael -
I appreciate that you’re trying to stir up a reaction in people such that they consider the bigger risks facing humanity. However, I’m afraid that this particular approach results in attention focused on controlling the particular (nuclear) technology and its sensational effects, rather than on the more subtle and more imminent problem of building an effective framework for wisdom over increasing scope.
- Jef
There are many distrubing trends in addition to these.
Network effects (e.g. telecommunications, internet) are making us connected, meaning that a destabilization in one area affects us all.
Population density is increasing on the coasts, which is the least sheilded from tsunamis, hurricanes etc, all of which will become more common with global warming.
The higher population the worse the problems. e.g. a 8 lane highway can service normal loads during noon, but this is like .01% of the population. If everyone were attempting to get on the roads, nobody moves, then people break down and then nobody CAN move, including emergency services/etc.
In an sci-fi world where unfriendly AI has figured out fusion doesn’t need oxygen/etc. All of these scenarios are possible if it’s tired of competiting with us, or thinking it can reengineer things.
Mk. 18 is a 0.5 megaton bomb. And 0.5 is concidered to be the absolute limit to pure fusion bombs.
Excellent work! I am surprised that some people would use the phrase “You are sick”. I personally find parts of your work to be scientific valid and of course of interest. To throw off on any research work, regardless of how unusual it may be presents a narrow thought process. I do not see such things happening but the concepts are valid. Lets be factual, the results of Professor Einstein’s equations and their actual results in the creation of the bomb are far more ‘sick’. However this is science and it will continue until man’s thought processes stop.
Carl Edwin Lindgren
Maru:
You realize you are linking to an *old* mirror of Wikipedia with your references.com Denial link?
This same text occurs nearly unchanged at many places I picked the one which gave the most readable format (for my browser…)
slyborg:
Didn’t see anything about EMP.
OK, here is your link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starfish_Prime
Jef Allbright:
I appreciate that you’re trying to stir up a reaction in people such that they consider the bigger risks facing humanity. However, I’m afraid that this particular approach results in attention focused on controlling the particular (nuclear) technology and its sensational effects, rather than on the more subtle and more imminent problem of building an effective framework for wisdom over increasing scope.
Well, that’s the trouble, not specifically with Michael but with all techno-drunks Singularitarians or otherwise, they tend to overlook or even dismiss non technological factors.
Actually, non technological factors overwhelmingly PRIME technology.
- Finance, no funding no technology.
- Public opinion, NIMBY.
- Antiquated moralism, no stem cells.
- Corporate vested interests and inertia, no stirling engines.
- …
This list could be extended ad libitum.
Anyway Michael, this is SUCCESS, never had so many comments on a thread, eh?
OK, here is your link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starfish_Prime
Thanks for the link, Jean-Luc.
A little web surfing led me to studies being done into “High-altitude ElectroMagnetic Pulse” [HEMP!?]. Didn’t find a consensus on optimal detonation altitude and yield, but it looks like you wouldn’t even need a full megaton -to take out the US grid coast-to-coast- even if your warhead exploded high in the upper atmosphere. Lucky[?] for us there are few aggressive states with this capability. Of course, it only takes one…
Michael: I’ve heard about the frightening possibility of scenarios #1 and #2 occuring [without the megaton "assist"] in the indefinite future. Kinda puts the pressure on to get ‘uplifted’ ASAP.
Great topic BTW, judging by the provoked responses.
Carpe Diem,
Slyborg
Anyway Michael, this is SUCCESS, never had so many comments on a thread, eh?
Not really, the smartest people in this thread have left the shortest comments, meanwhile you and James are insulting me, saying I should “stop watching cartoons” or that I am a “techno-drunk”. You are unfairly judging my entire worldview from a single post.
As to blowing up the mountain with the agreement of the nation involved: If you look at it as a construction project, it becomes a lot more saleable. “Hi, we noticed you have this mountain that’s about to fall, and you’re also on an island with limited land area. Would you like us to come in and turn the mountain into landfill for you, gratis?” (Ted Kaehler suggested this, with the additional suggestion of constructing an airport on the new land.)
Chris
Fascinating read. One offhand comment bothers me, though:
“Also – dangers that you probably don’t even understand in much detail – nanoweapons and AI – are radically more severe than the nuclear dangers outlined here, if less mediagenic.”
I understand both in detail, enough to know that they’re both still very pie-in-the-sky in terms of destructive potential. Nuclear weapons are very real, today.
Excellent post. I agree that Mecca is a better target than Tehran if you want to start a religious war. I also think that Beijing would be better than Washington, as it would cause more chaos among a larger populace.
Isn’t there also a supervolcano in Indonesia?
James and Jean-Luc,
Your writing needs work. Insults just don’t read well. They make it very easy to dismiss your writing as childish and unimportant.
Assuming you want to improve your skills, read back over your posts after a day or two. Try and get a sense of the tone you convey.
Good luck,
Macca,
Interesting article, which certainly highlights the dangers of nuclear weapons – they can destroy us in ways most people don’t even know about. It makes an excellent case for complete nuclear disarmament. The dismantling of nuclear weapons would make an excellent source of fuel for nuclear power plants, while at the same time creating a safe way to dispose of fissionable material. This solves several problems simultaneously. It does leave the major question of how we might persuade countries with nuclear arsenals to give them up. A huge amount of global political reform would be needed before nations would be in a position to trust other nations to the degree that they would not feel any need to threaten them with nuclear weapons.
As should be apparent by now, following the terrorism of 9/11, the Gulf War, and the current wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Lebanon, the Arab-Israeli conflict is the most dangerous of the global political problems, and it generates an unlimited range of other conflicts (remember that when Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait in 1991, setting off the whole chain of events that has resulted in the mess that we are in today, he explained that he was doing so, in his words, “to liberate Palestine”).
I believe that the nation of Israel has every right to exist, legally, morally, and historically. Nonetheless, the creation of Israel in 1948 was supremely impractical and has caused nothing but disaster ever since. We are only talking about a population of 5 million Jews in Israel, not an enormous number compared to typical national populations. Even at this late date, it is possible for them to live elsewhere – not as an admission of being wrong, but just to solve the problem. And the whole world can help them to do this — certainly, the whole world has a stake in the resolution of this long-standing conflict.
The way I see it, the nation of Israel as it presently exists could be put up for sale as a large real estate transaction. If such large amounts of land as the Louisiana Purchase can be bought by the US from France, or Alaska can be bought by the US from Russia, then the much smaller territory of Israel should also be possible to sell. I imagine a consortium of middle eastern countries, such as Saudi Arabia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates etc., who would be interested in making such a purchase and who have enough money (from oil revenues) to be able to afford it. As it turns out, peace is actually a lot cheaper than war. More money is spent trying to destroy Israel, than the cost of simply buying it.
The proceeds of the sale of Israel could be used to finance the creation of a new Israel in a new, more workable location (I am inclined to move Israel to my own country, Canada, but the specific site is open to discussion and obviously is a very crucial decision that should not be made too lightly). In the new location for Israel, the mistakes made in 1948 would not be repeated. No territory would be seized or expropriated, it would simply be purchased. I am sure that suitable sites do exist.
And with enough money it is possible to completely replace all the housing, industry, office buildings, roads, farms, trees, infrastructure of every variety, that were given up by leaving the current location of Israel. It may or may not be possible to duplicate the existing coastline and port facitlites (if Israel were re-located in Baja California we could have a very similar coastline). Even if the sale of Israel fell short of the necessary amount of money, other nations should be willing to contribute more money to help make this happen. After all, the US currently spends many billions of dollars a year in foreign aid, trying to stabilize the middle east, even aside from the many more billions of dollars now spent fighting wars which are, in various ways, an outgrowth of the unresolved Arab-Israeli conflict. The UN has an abvious interest in creating peace. This would be a cause well worth some extra expense.
The issue is always raised, when I suggest this, that there is a religious obligation for Jews to live in the Holy Land that was (supposedly) given to them by God himself, as reported in the Torah. Hence, Jews can’t relinquish their claim to that specific piece of territory. However, I have studied Judaism and I believe that the highest ideal expressed in that religion is respect for human life. Since the ongoing Arab-Israeli conflict (and its various side-effects) has taken and continues to take a terrible toll in human life (both Jewish and Gentile) this is a matter which must be taken very seriously from the perspective of the Jewish religion. If it is necessary to leave Israel in order to save lives, then that supercedes any other religious principle. Furthermore, irreplaceable religious relics such as the Western Wall can be moved. Jews can leave Israel and take their religion with them. This would be a great triumph for Judaism, not a defeat. It would demonstrate that Jews can rise above violence and the mentality of revenge and vendetta which has taken over middle eastern politics; Arabs may prefer to pursue their objectives through violence, but Jews can be better than that.
This solution has the advantage that it finally and completely solves the whole Arab-Israeli conflict so that there really is nothing more to fight about, and it does so without killing anyone, without robbing anyone, without dispossessing anyone, without harming anyone, without insulting anyone’s religion, or causing any disadvantage to anybody. What about the new host nation in which the new Israel would exist? I see only economic advantages for that nation. The contruction of the new country alone would be a huge economic stimulus, and the new Israel would itself have a vibrant economy that would create a lot of business in its new location. Providing that the new terrority is sold voluntarily and without coersion, there is no reason to object (obviously, if the new Israel is created by forcibly evicting existing occupants from the new territorty, we would just be making the same mistakes all over again).
Of course, such a solution would inevitably appear to many people as a surrender to Arab violence. But let’s be honest about it, we can quite legitimately regard it as a long-overdue correction of the mistake made in 1948 of creating Israel without the agreement of the other people living in that region and thereby planting the seeds of the terrible conflict which continues to rage, even as I type. Jews can be big enough to admit to that mistake.
This would be necessary first step toward creating a more peaceful world in which people could feel safe in giving up their nuclear arsenals. Many other steps would also be needed, however. World peace is not an easy proposition. But without it, the world is doomed. It’s worth working toward peace, however complicated that struggle may prove to be. Otherwise we have no future anyway. War, even if never turns into nuclear war, will continue to waste our resources and divert our attention from the more real and fundamental ecological problems such as global warming, which will eventually destroy us if we do not do a lot better job of solving them. The world really does not have a lot of time left to get it’s act together before it is too late, and the remaining resources are inadequate to solve the growing problems. It may still be true (as was predicted as long ago as the 1960′s) that the human race will become extinct and cockroaches will inherit the Earth. (One might also argue that cockroaches couldn’t do any worse a job of running the planet than we have.) If that is not the kind of future that we really want, we had better start taking very serious steps to turn things around.
The second necessary requirement for a better world, after moving Israel to a new location, is to bring a complete end to the wasteful and destructive war on drugs. Let’s just allow people to use the drugs that they want to use, legalize them and collect sales tax on the drug economy instead of wasting endless billions of dollars which, much like the endless billions of dollars being wasted on war, are needed to address more urgent issues such as global pollution, disease, hunger, etc. If drug-users harm themselves thereby, well, surely they are the owners of their own lives. It is not the business of governments to run eveybody’s lives anyway, that is mere Puritanism, and it doesn’t work in the 21st century.
With just those two basic reforms, the world would be in a position to really make things better. (I can suggest more as well, but let’s start with these.) — dp
Jean-Luc Delatre Says: Putting aside the feasibility for a moment, why not looking for solutions
If it is not feasible, it is a dream and not a solution. I recommend that you “get real”
Also “A mountain = a nation ???” No, where it is. Look at the Canary Island chain. And, just for fun, you may investigate a similar situation (without the crack) in the Hawaian islands (hint: the wave would be aimed at Asia and Indonesia) and consider how THEY (as well as the U.S.) would respond to the suggestion of blasting chunks of the island into the sea (NOT creating landfill).
BTW Macca: If I hadn’t presented papers in a few conferences, lead workshops and gotten a few things published in independent magazines as well as participated in Toastmasters for years, your August 10th, 2006 at 8:07 am post might be taken more seriously. But I have and it is not. You may benefit from the knowledge that you are not the intended audience, and one should always write for the audience. Please feel free to “dismiss your writing as childish and unimportant.”. Fortunately, I am not writing for either the childish nor unimportant, so you may feel free to ignore them. You may, of course, continue your self-evaluation.
Ref the Super Tsunami: Don’t forget the massive icebergs as the polar cap breaks away from the narrows it is attached to in Canada, Greenland, Siberia… and the multihundredmile iceber impacts on shipping or as they run aground in places like Hawaii, or the gas prices that will soar after the refineries are all (check their locations!) destroyed, or the goods prices as most of the ports and their train/crane/… facilities are wiped out, the impact on the space program after almost all non-military launch facilities are demolished, or the Internet when it is restricted to the continent it is on (the points where the cables go into and out of the sea…) are pulverized and the satellites up are the ONLY ones left until their LEO orbits decay (other than the ones in geosync orbits)…
It would make the loss of Manhattan look like a ‘by the way’ (especially to Europe, for instance).
And there are more than one potential slip island. NOT just in the Atlantic, either. And for “oh yeah”, check the wave altitude (yeah, altitude!) of that one that happened in Alaska a while back…
James W. Meritt:
If it is not feasible, it is a dream and not a solution. I recommend that you “get realâ€
James you are a bit too harsh and likely have the OPPOSITE biases of the cornucopians.
I actually said “why not LOOKING for solutions”.
Before “getting real” i.e. making a feasibility assessment you have to devise solutions, and, YES, throw off 99.99% of them but not BEFORE looking.
Ever investigated creativity?
If you are interested I can provide some links but no point doing that just for arguing.
Re: … you are not the intended audience
Difficult to say WHO is the intended audience, this is an Internet blog!
wouldnt nuking antartica cause more damage? i mean it would greatly increase the temperature on a wide area and melt a LOT of ice, raising sea levels world-wide and flooding nearly every country
I’m not convinced of #6 being Tehran. Certainly, it’s in the top ten, but past Islamabad (since Pakistan already has nuclear weapons) and Mecca? Mecca during the Hajj has 2.2 million people in a very close area, all relatively wealthy. The entire muslim world would be through into shock.
Overall, I hadn’t thought about the dangers of unsetling the earth’s natural features. Great article!
(For those who would consider this a perverse topic, you are never again allowed to read Stephen King or Michael Crichton. :)
Here’s a fun one a friend told me about that apparently came out of a uestion period at a physics conference. Don’t know if it’s true or not:
Nuke Jupiter. Set the gas giant on fire. Congratulation, your now have a solar system with 2 suns.
Remus Shepherd :
Isn’t there also a supervolcano in Indonesia?
Yes, Toba, “even better” than Yellowstone :
http://volcano.und.nodak.edu/vwdocs/volc_images/southeast_asia/indonesia/toba.html
Why Michael did not choose this one?
Probably not scary enough to Americans, who cares about Indonesians.
OTOH it would have been even more “educational” because that one already nearly wiped out mankind, only about 10000 survived 73,000 years ago:
http://www.andaman.org/BOOK/originals/Weber-Toba/ch3_explosion/textr3.htm
But this had some positive points :
“Toba promoted a new, cooperative way of life that wasn’t widely practiced, if at all, before then. Toba made what would be the final step in becoming human like us.â€
http://www.las.uiuc.edu/news/2005spring/05april_toba.html
To keep with the optimistic line ;-) may be the next disaster will contribute to our betterment as a “sapiens” specie.
Interesting, but you’ve sorta forgotten a few incredibly potent sites. The three gorges dam, for example, shouldn’t hold up well to a blast. Not quite a natural feature, but the potential for economic and human crisis ranges from powerful to genocidal. Similar things could be said about the Hoover Dam, but the resovoir is smaller and the river that flows out is pretty dry now, so there’s plenty of buffer space.
The #1 idea, blowing up Yellowstone, should be disqualified because you admit it would require more than one megaton.
If it’s OK to use 20 megatons, it might skew the results somewhat, because so many more possibilites open up. Be consistent.
very interesting article.
i read an article a few weeks back that described a scenario of “if the coldwar had gone hot”.
Very interesting.
This just in. . .
BUSH AND CHENEY DROPPED IDEA OF USING NUCLEAR WEAPONS
AGAINST IRAN AT INSISTENCE OF JOINT CHIEFS’ CHAIRMAN PACE
By Sherwood Ross
President Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney abandoned a plan to include “the possible use of a nuclear device” to destroy Iran’s uranium-enrichment plant at Natanz because of Pentagon opposition, investigative reporter Seymour Hersh has said.
“Bush and Cheney were dead serious about the nuclear planning,” a former senior intelligence official told Hersh. But Joint Chiefs of Staff’s Chairman Marine General Peter Pace “stood up to them,” he said. “Then the word came back: ‘O.K., the nuclear option is politically unacceptable.” Hersh termed this a “major victory” for the military, but one that has left “bad feelings” between it and the civilian hierarchy in Washington.
In an article published in “The New Yorker” magazine, Hersh reports senior commanders inside the Pentagon “increasingly challenged the President’s plans” on grounds the nuclear attack likely would not succeed in destroying Iran’s nuclear program and “could lead to serious economic, political, and military consequences” for America.
The possibility of using tactical nuclear weapons to destroy Natanz’s buried laboratories was held to be “politically untenable” as the device could “vent fatal radiation for miles,” Hersh wrote. Natanz is about 200 miles south of Tehran.
Instead, the Air Force has proposed dropping large “bunker-buster” conventional bombs in quick succession on Natanz to “generate sufficient concussive force to accomplish what a tactical nuclear warhead would achieve, but without provoking an outcry over what would be the first use of a nuclear weapon in a conflict since Nagasaki,” Hersh wrote.
This approach, however, might fail owing to the enormous heat generated by the first bomb would liquefy the soil, one Pentagon consultant said. “It will be like bombing water, with its currents and eddies. The bombs would likely be diverted.”
Besides, as Hersh noted, over the past two years “the Iranians have been shifting their most sensitive nuclear-related materials and production facilities, moving some into urban areas in anticipation of a bombing raid.”
Robert Pape, a University of Chicago professor who has taught at the Air Force’s School of Advanced Air and Space Studies, is quoted as saying Natanz is “a very large underground area, and even if the roof came down we won’t be able to get a good estimate of the bomb damage without people on the ground.”
“We don’t even know where it goes underground, and we won’t have much confidence in assessing what we’ve actually done. Absent capturing an Iranian nuclear scientist and documents, it’s impossible to set back the program for sure,” Pape said.
One Pentagon adviser told Hersh America’s allies fear a U.S. assault against Iran would place them in jeopardy. The Iranians, he said, “have agents all over the Gulf, and the ability to strike at will.”
Last May, the Emir of Qatar learned during a visit to Iran his country, the site of the U.S. Central Command’s regional headquarters, “would be its first target in the event of an American attack,” Hersh wrote. Qatar, a leading gas exporter, operates offshore oil platforms which would be extremely vulnerable in the event of war.
Some Pentagon officers oppose an attack against Iran at it could heighten the risks to U.S. forces in Iraq. “What if one hundred thousand Iranian volunteers came across the border?” retired Army Major General William Nash asked. And Navy officers worry about “suicide water bombers” attacking U.S. aircraft carriers in the Persian Gulf.
Nash, now a senior fellow at the council on Foreign Relations, said U.S. bombing of Iran “would be seen not only as an attack on Shiites but as an attack on all Muslims. Throughout the Middle East, it would likely be seen as another example of American imperialism. It would probably cause the war to spread.”
The U.S. military has also dissented from a bombing campaign against Iran in the absence of specific intelligence evidence “of clandestine activities or hidden facilities,” the magazine article said. One high-ranking general told Hersh, “We built this big monster (WMD) with Iraq, and there was nothing there. This is son of Iraq.” The New Yorker article appeared in its July 10-17 issue.
#
(Sherwood Ross is an American columnist and magazine writer. Contact him at sherwoodr1@yahoo.com)
Nice article. You pretty much got all the hot spots for world wide catastrophy covered. However, number four seems a bit tough to accomplish. There aren’t many unstable volcanic areaqs underwater that are easy to get to. The sheer depth of most of these volcanic hot spots would prohibit any attempt to get a nuke down there, and who knows if the nuke would even function under such a HUGE amount of pressure. I mean the average human can only get down to about 200ft or so on regular compressed air before they get all nitrogen narcosis-ey (aka rapture of the deep) and have to either come up or forget they are under water and try to breath without their regulator. So you’d have to have some sort of submarine that could take alot of pressure and a nuke that could operate in those conditions. Considering that you are trying to do this on the cheep, I don’t find number four feasible. Could be wrong though.
I have an article on the same thing…kinda. Only, its about stability via nukes not instability. I call it “The Israel Problem” and have only one solution, albiet a complicated one. I’d enjoy your input.
Other obvious places people have suggested:
* Bejing
* Paris
* Rome / Vatican City
* London
* Tokyo
* Moscow
* Silicon Valley
* Mecca
* NORAD
My only complaint is that the material in this post will likely be used by alarmists rather than visionaries; you hope for change, yet you know you’ll just ruffle some feathers. In any case, thank you for the interesting read.
REPLY TO #54:
NORAD? (Which nobody, that I read, had suggested.)
Isn’t NORAD buried so deep in the Rocky Mountain range so as to be intentionally impervious to surface trauma such as a Nuclear detonation?
Reference: “…designed to protect the headquarters of the North American early warning and control network (jointly operated by the U.S. and Canada) from nuclear attack.”
http://www.brook.edu/fp/projects/nucwcost/box3_3.htm
I would assume that the NSA would be easier to affect externally than would NORAD (and, thankfully, that itslef would not exactly be “easy” … just “easier”. That’s a satement I would liken to saying: “bench pressing an SUV would be ‘easier’ than bench pressing an M1 Abrams Tank”).
And on that note… I would say: “bench pressing an M1 Abrams Tank would be ‘easier’ than nuking NORAD”.
Correct me if I’m wrong.
500 meters of granite isn’t bad, but it’s nothing to count on with a multiple-pronged strike. The Soviets sucked at getting the bombs directly to their targets. So they compensated with increased yield. A 50 megaton nuke, like the Tsar Bomba, is extremely powerful… the air blast radius is 26.3 kilometres. Multiple smaller nukes, one after the other, would also be able to burrow through 0.5km of granite quite easily.
Nanotech will allow us to build much larger nukes, although there is a point of diminishing returns. Multiple smaller nukes can usually do the job better than one big one.
“BUSH AND CHENEY DROPPED IDEA OF USING NUCLEAR WEAPONS AGAINST IRAN AT INSISTENCE OF JOINT CHIEFS’ CHAIRMAN PACE”
Funny how traditionally during the cold war we always envisioned the military as the ones pushing the nuclear option while the President and the civilian politicians in DC were the voices of restraint, understanding the disasterous political consequences.
I don’t understand how an “Accelerating Future” will consist of 6 places to nuke.
How can we be accelerating if we are still bombing or nuking?
This has been going on for centuries.
The bomb has become more complex but the behavior has stayed the same.
I would prefer, “6 ways to becoming aware”.
Wishful pseudoscience behavior, I know.
Anna:)
Oh yeah, Nuke Iran. Sure everyone would think Israel did it. Lets get real for a minute. You think we could launch a missile from anywhere and it not get detected by another nation? Lets see, how about dropping a fat boy from a high altitude plane? Hmmm. What about the Chinese satellite that monitors that airspace? You think they won’t know what the hell’s flying up there? I’ll do you one even better; if we get caught dropping an unprovoked nuke on another nation, even our allies won’t be allies anymore. You’ll see the U.K., Germany, France, and every other member on the U.N. Security council gear up for a nuke strike on the “rogue” U.S. almost overnight. I’ve got it now, lets have some Navy Seals hand carry a small nuke into the city and nuke it that way? Hmm 8:00 p.m. Nuke Iran, 8:05 p.m. CNN sends me an alert email saying “US NUKES IRAN! CNN working to confirm”. 9:30 P.M. Michel Moore starts shooting his next documentary. 10:00 P.M. Geraldo live interviewing Ann Coulter who explains that the liberals must have done it so we should nuke them also.
Lets get real Mike. You’re obviously a smart guy. Stop surfing FAS.ORG and find a cure for male pattern baldness.
JL
You think we could launch a missile from anywhere and it not get detected by another nation?
Not missile, truck.
Michel Moore starts shooting his next documentary. 10:00 P.M. Geraldo live interviewing Ann Coulter who explains that the liberals must have done it so we should nuke them also.
I can just tell by the way you talk that you watch too much mainstream media.
Lets get real Mike. You’re obviously a smart guy. Stop surfing FAS.ORG and find a cure for male pattern baldness.
Never been to fas.org, and don’t tell me what to do.
Well i think you left out other potential candidates.
1) Mecca and Medina,
2) and your #2 would have been better place along the british channel(underwater perferably) as opposed to the Cumbre Viejo
3)The polar caps
hey salamander4322, great choices, but hitting the english for no reason, how about exploding in space.
>1) Mecca and Medina,
>2) and your #2 would have been better place >along the british channel(underwater >perferably) as opposed to the Cumbre Viejo
>3)The polar caps
To Michael Anissimov
Although I agree that people need awakenings, at some point, I don’t fully believe that by zapping them with negative scenarios leads them to better beliefs.
Just an opinion
Anna:)
Although I agree that people need awakenings, at some point, I don’t fully believe that by zapping them with negative scenarios leads them to better beliefs.
Anna, potential negative scenarios are reality, and we ignore them, we screw ourselves.
*zap zap*
Michael:)
Anna writes:
Yes I agree.
“Anna, potential negative scenarios are reality, and we ignore them, we screw ourselves.”
*zap zap*
Michael:)
At the same time, not everyone understands the same scenarios and may interpret it many different ways, leading to misunderstanding, causing racial, political and nukes/bombs scenarios, I don’t see how this is beneficial?
Please eplain.
Anna:)
At the same time, not everyone understands the same scenarios and may interpret it many different ways, leading to misunderstanding, causing racial, political and nukes/bombs scenarios, I don’t see how this is beneficial?
Anna, if you don’t speak fluent English, I can’t very well understand you on here…
Even if half of people misunderstand, it doesn’t matter, because they can’t do anything. The people that do understand are those that I care about, and by looking at the comments on this thread, many do understand what I was getting at, which is all I wanted! If people want to get racial/political, I really don’t care. They can do that in the privacy of their own apartments or houses.
-Michael
Technology DOES NOT solve psychological/social problems.
Technology solving problems is the premise of this blog. If you disagree, then there are hundreds of other blogs out there more suitable to your worldview. I refuse to allow you to comment here if you will disagree with every single post, which is totally in the cards, considering that our worldviews are completely different. If you don’t agree with my fundamental axioms, please LEAVE!
Micheal,
My parents are fluent in English:)
Micheal wrote:
Anna, if you don’t speak fluent English, I can’t very well understand you on here…
Even if half of people misunderstand, it doesn’t matter, because they can’t do anything.
Anna writes:
That’s gibberish. Half of anything creates the other half.
Anna writes:
“Have you looked up the term “scenario”?”
Let’s assume from an AI perspective:
Why are you telling people how to 6 way nuke somebody?
What’s the point?
Are you trying to teach humans how to destroy themselves?:)
Just because “they” understand; doesn’t mean it’s the understanding.
PS. In passing, you didn’t get 50 percent of the vote, based on percentage:)
Thanks for the article Mike.
I am a fan of the blog and your active interest in our future.
However I always ahave a very mixed response to advertising great disaster scenarios onthe internet. There are a lot of people who would love to pull one of these off! – NO NEED TO TELL THEM ABOUT IT!!
How about an article about the massive nuclear arsenal STILL harboured by many powerful nations, specifically USA, Russia and China.
Interesting but you make the fatal mistake that sooooo many others make: a 1 megaton bomb is not that powerful.
Destroy some cities? Yeah, 6, 5 and 3 are ‘sensible’ options. You can’t do 4, 2 and 1. You definitely can’t do 1. If a supervolcano is equivalent to a civilisation ending asteroid impact, which it pretty much is then that’s an energy release equivalent to 300 gigatons of TNT. You really think a 1 megaton nuke will set that off? They can only just sink a ship in the sea.
See the destruction in Hiroshima: those houses were made out of sticks and paper. Heat will kill people but the physical destruction power isn’t great enough for the earth moving purposes you require.
cheers
The Brand-Spanking New Three Gorges Dam in China. Wait a few years till a large chunk of their State-run industry is dependent on the power it generates. Wait till millions move into the seemingly permanent valley. Scary.
Who ever wrote this should burn in hell while being raped by hitler.
Why on Gods gren earth would you give terroist a recipe to destry the world this is simply wrong.
Wow very interesting. You kind of think like a terrorist, why is that? Also, nothing like posting it out there on the WWW and giving people ideas! What are you thinking? Obviously not much. (or too much on the other end of the spectrum)
First of all, the Mark 17, not the Mark 18, was the most powerful weapon ever developed by the US. It weighed 21 tons and the only weapon that heavy that could be hauled by an aircraft. A B-36 could haul 2 of them, a B-52 could haul only one, since the forward bombay doors were not long enough to load a second one. Russia made a 58 megaton weapon and fired it off in the early 1960′s, but it was too large to transport and deliver in a bomber.
You tend to over-estimate the usefulness of using such a bomb on calderals,, or in large areas of methane clathrate. Even though there is a possiblity of upsetting these areas, the pressure waves from the blast could also seal it. In the instance of beds of methane clatharate, the only reason it exists is because it is under tremendous pressure on deep ocean beds. Firing such a weapon off above it or in it would only increase the pressure and cause it to crystalize even further. However, as the 1950′s underwater test showed, the rain of radioactive fallout would be much greater and would be much more of an immediate threat. You would have to deploy a nuclear weapon under it to get it to boil up to the surface for methane clathrate to subliminate into the atmosphere to do any damage, and that could be a major technical hurdle of getting a weapon that deep below the suface of the ocean. Same can be said for breaching any dorminate volcanoes, the nuclear weapon has to be placed deep enough were it will open it, not seal it. The 2 nuclear tests in the Aleutian Islands back in the early 1960′s proved that point.
Last of all, if you are going to use nuclear weapons of that size, they are really only good for the largest mass population centers or “large urban renewal projects”. Strategically, it doesn’t pay to use them to disrupt the environment since it has dire consequences for the people who use the nuclear weapons too. Even if they were to survive the immediate consequences, they would not be able to occupy or utilize the land they captured for their own benefit, and the radioactive fallout and changes in the environment would seal their fate too. Just look at the land around Chernobyl today. Hardly anyone occupies it today except for the very poor who have no place to go. If you are going to declare war and reap the benefits of your war booty, it makes much better sense to use selective biological weapons.
As far as nuking anything goes, I think I prefer the slow, indirect damage that prolongs human suffering, rather than going for the immediate kills. I’d suggest hitting the major IRS processing centers to totally cripple the U.S. government’s ability to raise revenue. Then hit the Suez and Panama canals to wreck them, followed up with dirty bombs to render the areas inhospitable to any kind of reconstruction efforts. This will impair shipping for decades. Then some nice high altitude airbursts over London, New York, and Tokyo to generate enough electromagnetic radiation to destroy electronic financial records, computer infrastructures, and cripple world trade. That ought to leave a lot more people alive to suffer.
I thought this was an article to establish which of the many places we as Americans would like to nuke first ! Oh well all I have to say is if we would turn the mideast into a sheet of glass the rest of the world would stop and think about it for ahwhile.
Just an addition to what I previously submitted. AS far as the political motives for “nuking” certain areas of the world, there are many. But bye in large, it may humble people for awhile but doesn’t really satisfy the problems at hand. After a generation or two, the problems will come back to haunt people all over again. Mankind doesn’t seem to have the aptitude for making changes without violence and conflict, and seldom work on preventative measures instead of reacting to outcomes. For instance, the only reason why we have problems in the middle east is directly relaed to our presence in the area for oil. Before 1950, we had no problems with the Middle East, today we do, simply because we did not need their oil until after 1950. Had we continued to not deal with the middle east, we would not even be a target of mayhem and destruction for them, Iran would not even have the capacity or money to build nuclear arms, Iraq and Afganistan would not be an issue, and probably not even in our high school geography books! With no money flowing in, they have to rely on servicing other parts of the world for revenue, but in all we would have effectively broken the backs of the OPEC cartel, their importance to us, roll back their economies to pay for their hate and destruction of the west, and take the air out of the right wing religious zealots. It would be much more effective in many ways than dropping a nuclear bomb. They can continue to fight their religious wars between the Sunnis,Shites, and Jews, but then who would care if they killed each other off at that point. It would simply serve as population control for an otherwise overcrowded region of the earth that doesn’t have any resources to speak of, outside of oil and camels. So, in summary, one can say not only is money the root of all evil, but is oil too! It is best just to walk away from the Middle East and let them fight it out among themselves over that worthless piece of desert real estate. In the meanwhile, we need to become self sufficient again. In one grand swoop, we could solve our enegy problems, the environmental problems, or national revenue outflow, or national debt, and deficit trade, and that will put an end to terrorism for the US. So, with that said, why do we even need to deal with them, let alone nuke them? They can continue to hate and envy us, but they would be powerless to do anything about us, even if they had nuclear weapons. The rest of the world wants to get away from their nonsense too and would be happy to align with us if we came up with solutions to the energy issue, (not to mentin dumping GW Bush and company), and would be buying from us, not from them.
As for bombing Washington D.C. that is everyone’s prime target. There is no better target in the world come to think of it. While Russia and China had targeted the Capitol building as ground zero for any nuclear exchange, I think many Americans would be happy and supportive of any rogue country or terrorist to target the IRS building as ground zero. I even think our fore-father’s who wrote the Constitution 223 years ago would be appalled at the abomination Washington DC has become and would support nuking it without hesitation.
Heat will kill people but the physical destruction power isn’t great enough for the earth moving purposes you require.
Looks like you’re right about this one. Lucky for us, huh? The Yellowstone caldera could still become more dangerous down the road.
Your statement that “the thermal radiation radius (3rd degree burns) of a 1-megaton nuclear blast is ~11.7 km” is a little agressive. I doubt terrorists could pull off an air burst. However–point taken. Wall St GZ is very clearly the most destructive location for a 1MT bomb. I’ve also seen Port of LA mentioned–apparently the economic impact would be tremendous. See also the MIT document “Nuclear Crash,” written during the Cold War to show how many carefully placed small nuclear weapons (e.g. at refineries) would send the US back to the Stone Age.
Mike
You’re not kidding – we do need to think like the bad guys. Whatever we can think of, so can they, no matter how far out it seems. Coming up with solutions ahead of time makes sense instead of playing catch-up the way we have been with these parasites. If we can get ahead of them, we could save a lot of lives.
Economic impact of hitting Manhattan is overly stated, I think. Sure there’s a lot of business that gets transacted there, but in the aftermath of Sept. 11th, all businesses maintain off-site storage of key data. Take out Manhattan and business could setup shop in Jersey or PA in less than a month. The terror aspect would be terrific, but hopefully by now the terrorists realize that they’d just piss us off again – and they really don’t want to do that. Say what you want, but the US did depose the government of 2 nations following Sept. 11: Pakistan and Iraq. I aslo think your overestimating the amount of damage/chaos caused by taking out DC. For about a month things would be hairy, but we’d get it together quickly enough and kick the $@%@ out of whoever was responsible. The real danger comes from the natural sources you mentioined. And I agree that the greatest amount of socio-political chaos would come from taking out Mecca during Hajji. THAT would be nasty.
Michael, well presented! I believe that if Iran, or its bona fide proxy, were to send missles with WMDs into Israel, then Israel would “go nuclear”. But a single missle to Tehran would not do it;as you point-out, it would permit another attack by Iran. No, I’m afraid 5-6 cities in Iran would vaporize instantly, to crush any fantasies of retaliation. The remaining Islamic countries would scream, cry, and wreck U.N. buildings abroad, but no one will F– with Israel again.
Hmpf! Looks like both our plans were sussed by reality!! Liquid explosives on planes = our ideas for chaos lose.
I hate reality.
Cheers.
I would nuke the internet. Don’t give me any of that crap about redundancy, either. You hit the right tube, and poof. That’s what my staff tells me, anyways.
Imagine the mayhem if all the blogs were gone.
Your geography isn’t even close. You mentioned the Yellowstone Caldera in Wyoming but showed us a representation of the Long Valley Caldera which is in California! I hope you don’t mistake Tehran with Topeka….
this fits perfectly with my plans for world domination. if you should survive the aftershocks, take great pride in knowing that you aided me in the greatest destruction known to mankind!
Was interesting reading. How bout this scenario. Do we have a neuton bomb? and would we use it?
Teheran: won´t work. your scenario will not come true. too many political and military factors that are uncertain.
Washington: possible
Methan Thingy: too difficult for a group to realize. maybe possible if government of a rogue state organizes it. possible effects still controversialy discussed by several scientists.
NY: possible
La Palma: see above “Methan Thingy”
Yellowstone Caldera: see above “Methan Thingy” + it lies in the States. I don´t think the United States would kick themselves out into space. :)
But effects are common knowledge.
Can’t stand it anymore, gotta respond.
#78. – Do you really think that some islamo-fascists are gonna stumble across this blog and yell “Eureka”, or whatever that is in Arabic? My guess is that if you ever have watched ‘Armageddon’, ‘Deep Impact’ or ‘Disaster Week’ on the Discovery Channel, you could have quickly come to the same conclusions as posted here.
If you really wanna wreak some havok – go move an asteroid to collide with a region. That we theoretically have the technology to do (and are one of the only, if not the only, nations who could). A small iron asteroid roughly ‘only’ the size of a house, like the one that hit in Winslow Arizona 50,000 years ago would do the trick. That size would be ‘easy’ to build up speed and pilot it in over a course of a couple of years as to hit a specific region.
An instaneous half-mile wide crater, about 500 sq miles vaporized, 10,000 sq miles set ablaze. Shockwave felt for thousands of miles. Regional nuclear winter. All the umph of a high end nuke, without all the radition.
And if done covertly, it becomes an act of nature and NO ONE gets blamed.
Scary I know, but if you are gonna consider these scenerios, you should think about all of them.
Nice if you want to create physical destruction, but consider this:
8 High Energy Neutron Bombs launched into geosynchronous orbit with synchronized detonation.
The EMP wipes out every chip on the planet all at once, with the exception of hardened military gear.
Just imagine the civilian chaos.
Have a nice day,
~ hayduke
Jean-Luc Delatre Says:
Technology DOES NOT solve psychological/social problems.
Alas the techno-drunks don’t understand that.
Anna wonders:
This is quite contrary.
You are analizing psychological/social problems and then telling someone that they are techno-drunk.
How is being critical any form of beneficial behaviour?
Anna writes:
Nukes might not have been the best topic but criticism generates the same psychological/social problems.
How is this better?
Just Curious
Anna:)
Anna says:
How is being critical any form of beneficial behaviour?
Beneficial to WHOM?
I don’t feel I am in charge of the education of the techno-drunks (well beyond Michael).
I just want to dampen the frenzy a little bit, I expect this to be benificial to me and even THEM.
but criticism generates the same psychological/social problems.
There is unfortunately NO WAY that you can counter such trends, short of lengthy “psychoanalysis like” interaction, which will no get thru blog discussions.
I agree that critiscism is a “cheap” solution, can you suggest something better?
I mean, thru Internet interactions.
JLD
guess what..the wta-talk moderator banned this message of mine from being posted.. so I am posting it here.
**********************************
Dear Assimov,
I had some degree of respect over your excellent grip of future eventualities until this point. I know you expected this comment on your blog but I wanted to post here so that people can understand why violent messages or links to such should not be welcomed or posted in a forum which promotes the ethical use of futuristic technologies including advanced nanotechnologically mediated nuclear energy generation.
Being a responsible and ethical futurist means a great deal of social responsibility. You cannot just state something so obviously violent and hope to call yourself a brilliant futurist. It is downright cruel to factually break down the huge loss of lives and carefully constructed societies and trivialize them with your supposed calculations on GDP and senatorial losses.
Of course a nuclear weapon causes damage. All people who attended school basically know this. duh.
What you could have done is to explain how to avert such a disaster. Why cannot you think in those lines ?
I urge you to please refrain from posting links to such violence presented in an indirect manner on a decent forum such as this.
Your description of possible scenarios to destroy the world with nuclear weapons is borderline terrorism. I have to state that.
Anyway, several paperback novels and movie storylines already have made extremely better calculations.
Assimov, your writings will be making implications in the immortalist and transhumanist movements in the coming centuries only if you write responsibly. Go read Kahlil Gibran’s “The prophet” if you want to know how to write about the stark realities of life.
ummm.. .where is the moderator ? :-P
Best Regards,
V.R.Manoj.
********************************************
So..that was the message.
Hi Michael, we will indeed have nuclear war and it will start on the date September 12,2006. The region that will be hit is around the River Eurphrates. Please read this site.
http://yahweh.com/PWMags/DefaultPW07_8_2006.htm
( copy and paste)
Peace
I suggest that we nuke the entire middle east,our men are over there fighting a “civil war”..I just returned from New York City on Aug. 11th 2006 under yet another terrorist threat, yet where will our military be? Guess.. Iraq and Isreal fighting for their rites. This angers me to the point of hate, and I do not like to hate, and I especially do not like to think that all of them are bad, but how much are we going to do for them while they are still attempting attacks on the US? We need our men HERE not over THERE…we need to protect ourselves.
Well done. Certainly an important article, and you have done a good job of analyzing the risks. I have to commend your lateral thinking — I completely forgot about the Canaries!
When our relocation finishes, you shall recieve a Trackback for your excellent writing.
~ Corbin
Sometimes the Unknown is scarier than the known. That’s the “beauty” of terror.
Imagine a terrorist with a small nuke or dirty bomb informing the media there will be a bomb going off in a US city in 6 hours. After the detonation kills 10,000, they threaten to set off another in an undisclosed city every 6 to 10 hours.
The whole US would look like Beirut after the kind and considerate leaflets were dropped.
Imagine millions of SUVs packed with the kids and the obligatory 2 dogs leaving every American city, going to where?
Imagine real estate prices in American cities not to mention the stock market, chaos and the logistics of feeding, housing, watering, medical care suddenly for 100′s of millions of people. All this accomplished with one sloppy bomb.
How well did we handle Katrina? Remember the embarrassment of convoys of Mexican troops with Mexican water and Castro offering to help? I think Bangladesh was sending food.
Multi megaton nukes from Iran and N. Korea delivered by missiles are the least of our worries.
Hard to imagine beauty in Terror but if there is, it’s the resultant chaos from not knowing who, what and where they do next.
Breckandy
Re: Cumbre Viejo and Yellowstone
Why use nukes, when a Tesla earthquake generator is so much cheaper and easier to construct? Blueprints are available.
To inveigh upon the public as a challenge to insecurity, fear, and hopelessness does not warrant graphic interpretations.
Verbal utterances regarding destruction is unacceptable as a living member of this planet. The high incidence of sociopathy in human society has a profound effect on those who live on this planet. The presence or absence of conscience is more siginifanct than that of gender, intelligence or race. The prevalence of psycopathy within a universal population must be addressed as a personality trait within a human society. Though small in number, this segment of humanity makes an extremely significant contribution to macrosocial evils as they are behind the structure of human society.
People suffering under pathocratic governments must rebuilt their social system by understanding the past and the future. Realistic apperception of the past and understanding its errors and evils must be a precondition to building a better future. Our moral responsibility must become a law of nature.
I’ve always favored the idea of turning Jerusalem into a glowing sheet of trinitite. It would erase the possibility of the Christian Eschaton and the Judaic Messianic scenario simultaneously. Mecca is a fine idea, done simultaneously, as well as Rome. Knock out the Big 3, nothing good has come of any of them.
Then we can free Charles Manson and make him the Emperor of Las Vegas.
I could probably give some great suggestions about interactions via the net or in person but I don’t think this blog would be the place to start talking about them.
Thanks anyhow:)
On a final note.
Although I don’t like the topic you chose, I do think your writing skills are really good and I really liked the idea of “getting people away from the television and start thinking”.
Thanks
Anna:)
You are overrating 1 Megaton or underrating the targets.
this a lot of pseudo-scientific BS
you CANNOT make a bomb out of uranium 238, it’s not fissile, doesn’t matter if you own all the mines in the world. You have to enrich it first and it’s the hell of of job. That’s why so few countries have A-bombs. It’s far easier to use plutonium as a decay product from nuclear power plants. On the other hand the technology of manufacturing the bomb is not given to anybody. For example the one of manufacturing neutron reflectors. Becaus you don’t find polonium in the next Walmart. Oops,I forgot that Osama have plenty of “nanofactories” in his caves. What I know is that matter doesn’t shrink. 60kg is 60 kg. Nano-Nano.
Since the American population is about 300 millions, one million deaths leaves 299 millions alive. So the 1/300 is only spin for people unable to do maths. That’s a far better ratio than WWI.
a standard THERMONUCLEAR military nuke is 150-500 KILOTON. A megaton explosion is a stupidity since not even the military have such weapons in use. The biggest test the US ever did was 15 Mt, and never did again (it was a mistake).
of couse even a 10 Kt explosion (Hiroshima) would have tremendous consequences where it hit, but the psychological ones would be the worse. The damage would be about the same than the Israeli have caused recently in South Lebanon, minus radioactivity (that would vanish in some years).
WTF have clathrates, super volcanoes and Canary Islands to do with nuclear explosions ? nothing. It’s only disputed theories, not esthablished facts.
this article is nothing but fearmongering. Buy yourself a shitload of tinfoil and start confecting hats. Or stop working for Homeland Security, if you have any decency.
and don’t forget to confiscate shampoo bottles on planes.
Ok, your a freak!
But so am I. Why do I get the strange vibes like this is some kinda of goverment way to see who is into seeing things geting nuked?
But if I get a vote on a target it would be all them whiney assed fuckin demacrats!
Disturbingly humurous and somewhat informative as well.
I can’t wait for the next article,
“Six more places to nuke when you’re just kidding around”
Sorry for the final note again.
I forgot.
The pictures, diagrams and drawings where nice.
Anna:)
What about the Fight Club Idea. Destroy a city that plays host to any countries major credit companies and that country goes ballistic. Just thought I’d throw my two cents in.
We should destroy the planet Saturn. It is a malign astrological influence.
It would be good if we could find a way to resurrect William Burroughs and Frank Zappa.
Nanotechnology might help with this one.
You get “interesting” visitors , hey Michael?
Better than critiscism, isn’t it? :-D
You will have to cleanup three times a day!
Interesting stuff, man. Hope no Christian Zionists (their explicit or more tacit supporters et al) are reading this!!!
Wouldn’t the possibility of several smaller nukes spread among numerous locations cause even more severe panic among a populace?
what am I (we) suppossed to do IF (or when) a nuke hits?? I am 50 and I THINK I rememeber we had siren tests in my home town (40 yrs ago) and were instructed where to go prior to attack (missiles inbound) to where food and water was stored. USUALLY IN a school basement or convention center etc. My dad built a “bomb shelter” in our basement.
Rememeber the “emergency broadcast” tests every week that stopped years ago??? We aren’t ready for ANYTHING. (I understand Russia is very advanced on preparation/execution?? Feedback???
Just curious.
Micheal,
What are your thoughts on transhumanism?
I was reading wta declarations:
(5) In planning for the future, it is mandatory to take into account the prospect of dramatic progress in technological capabilities. It would be tragic if the potential benefits failed to materialize because of technophobia and unnecessary prohibitions. On the other hand, it would also be tragic if intelligent life went extinct because of some disaster or war involving advanced technologies…
I recently just read about transhumanism and
was wondering what your thoughts where?
Thanks
Anna:)
What are your thoughts on transhumanism?
I identify as a transhumanist, and this blog usually focuses on transhumanist issues. I was on the World Transhumanist Association’s Board of Directors for a while, and have played a part in the formation and upkeep of several transhumanist organizations.
Speaking of terrorists targeting places that will be the most devestating either in number of deaths or most horrific to those who survive…. What’s up with this most recent alleged plan to blow up the Mackinac bridge in the UP of MI? Yes, it’s a big, pretty bridge – but why? Who would really care that much? It’s in the middle of nowhere and really, how many would actually be affected by blowing it up? Maybe they’re not as smart and savvy as we think they are…
Nice article, but might I offer a few small corrections? The most powerful bomb the US ever built was the Mark 17, which was a three stage bomb that could only be carried by the B-36. Yield was a little over 20 megatonnes. Our standard bomb, the B-61 is variable yield according to the pits inserted in the primary. Yield tops out at 1.2 Megatonnes, but the average yield is only about 80 kilotonnes. Unless you’re trying to crack the Soviet C3I complex at Zhiguli, megatonne yield weapons tend to be a waste.
The most powerful bomb was the Soviet “Ivan the Terrible” which was a derated 50 megatonne bomb. It was originally designed as a 100megatonne device, but Sakarov was afraid of igniting the atmosphere with it, so they derated it. They detonated it once at Sary Sagan and it scared em so bad that they never built another.
The most effective use for a megatonne range bomb would be for a NEMPSHOT, not a countervalue attack on an urban area.
One last thought. Everybody is worried about uranium separation. That’s the last thing you want to worry about. Everybody who has ever wanted a bomb in a hurry used Plutonium. And you can get Plutonium or breed Uranium 233 from Thorium 232, using a cheap fractional crit, graphite moderated slow breeder. Those are quick and cheap to build and easy to hide. And I’d be spending more time looking for those than I would centrifuges.
Very valid point you brought up, but if you wanted to bring across your point a little bit more strongly you should have included your hypothetical solutions with your hypothetical problems.
Given our demonstrated tendancy to over-react, I think you could detonate it on a remote atoll, and still reduce the world to airport strip-searching, republican-voting idiocy.
Michael Shirley Says:
August 14th, 2006 at 5:07 pm
The most powerful bomb was the Soviet “Ivan the Terrible†which was a derated 50 megatonne bomb. It was originally designed as a 100megatonne device, but Sakarov was afraid of igniting the atmosphere with it, so they derated it. They detonated it once at Sary Sagan and it scared em so bad that they never built another.
………………………………………….
Wasn’t a 1GT ‘device’ tested underground by the Soviets? I recall the debate over the “crack the continental plate”…
More:
http://digg.com/world_news/Nuclear_War_Starting_in_9_Days
No Sir. Ivan was the biggest. It was also more advanced in design than our Mk-17, and when they tested it, a weaponized version was dropped from a TU-95 bomber. (The BEAR- a four engined turboprop machine.)
I’m not sure what a gigatonne range device would do. I am sure that I’d not want to be anywhere near it when it went off.
Really big bombs are a lot like the Columbiad coast defense mortars that Rodman built before the Civil War. They’re a reducto ad absurdum. Most bombs average around 80kt unless you’re planning on cracking the old Soviet C3I complex at Zhiguli. Then between one and five MT is optimum, with repeated hits.
Tsar Bomba is the standard name, not Ivan, despite that being the codename:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tsar_Bomba
Gigatonne bombs could definitely exist, and they will probably be built and detonated in the next couple of decades, if the world starts to fall apart.
I am sure any nuclear device of great magnitude could be built, but as Michael Shirley eluded to earlier, they are not very practical, nor are they very mobile. In today’s world of sattelites, electronic survellience, and intelligence gathering, assembling and hauling the big stuff around is more of a liability than an asset. Today’s wars have to be executed with stealth and speed. Terrorist groups also need the infrastructure to build and deliver them. So, to them, big does not equate better. Getting something on target to do maximum damage is much more meaningful to them and to the military than deploying monster nuclear weapons to overcome margins of errors. Notice that the US military has invested alot in pin-point navigation systems and cruise missles over the past 20 years, rather than making nuclear weapons. With those improvements in delivery, they are as effective with conventional explosives, if not more so, than making up an expensive nuclear weapon for the same use. Terrorists are all too aware of these technological advantages. So, some of the scenerios you have suggested would have been something to seriously think about 40 years ago, today they are not practical in the minds of anyone unless they have the resources and technology to do it. That practically excludes everyone one on earth except two parties to accomplish such a thing, the two old cold war antagonist, the US and Russia.
Another thing to consider if you are trying to pry into the minds of potential terrorists: To some people, nuclear weapons have taken on the aura of a male’s idea of trophy women. For sure, nuclear weapons are coveted, impressive and awesome, the big bangs make a statement of power, and having them gives you a certain status, respect and prestige among others, much like intoxicating sex appeal. (You hear this same analogy applied to sports cars alot). However, these torphy toys are totally useless if they can’t be delivered to the intended target. That is what both North Korea and Iran are working on now that has the US so “roused”. Sometimes the intended targets are mobile and that complicates the logistics even further for the would be terrorists. So, the weapon of choice would not necessarily be the nuclear option, but something that is easier to obtain, and more often overlooked.
For instance, liquified natural gas in container ships could destroy any port in the US every bit as well as a nuclear weapon could. If you like big bangs and huge fireballs, this will do it. The only thing you need is something to punch a hole in the hull of a ship and a simple match.
If you want to shut down most all the oil coming into this country to immobilize the US, a small amount of explosives at the refineries either in Houston and or crashing a ship in the oil terminal in Valdez and New Orleans will bring this country to its knees. Terrorist could buy second hand submarines for a several million, arm them with conventional torpedoes and mines and sink enough ships at the Straits of Harmouz to block any tanker passage in any given day before the US Navy could come in to sink the offending sub, (which would also add to the litter on the bottom of the straits and either block or restrict the passage). The oil termainals at Abu Dabi or in Kawait would do nicely too.
If you simply have no regard for the people you are targeting, why not use biological agents to progressively wipe out a whole population. Even though biological weapons have a limited shelf life, they are easy to carry and dispense on to a plane or ship, since TSA has no way of searching for that. A terrorist could infect the everyone on board so they become potential carriers to other places when they land. If you manage your flight or holiday cruise well with your travel agent, you can hit every major airport in the US within 4 days before you, yourself, would die from the exposure to the biological agent. By then CDC, Homeland Security, the FBI, and everyone would be stumbling around for the next 7 to 10 days trying to figure out where the agent came from and whether it was from a terrorist organization or not. Casualities would continue to mount unabated since no one in this country has stockpiled enough serum to innoculate against any of the known agents. Biological weapons leaves no calling cards.
You could also use biological weapons like rusts and, smuts, and fungi to destroy our ability to raise food supplies throughout North America and starve us into submission. The Japanese under Lt. Gen. Shiro Ishii M.D. experimented with both of these ploys during from 1932 to 1945 and they could have very easily destroyed our food supply during WWII by sending these agents over in balloons!
Then there is Tesla and his technology. Tesla was an inventor who was ahead of his time. He was the first to realize you could mess up the ionosphere and disrupt communications, knock down planes, and screw up electric grids if enough electrical energy could be passed into the ionosphere and disrupt the earth’s magnetic field. It will do everything a nuclear blast in the upper atmosphere would do proportional to the physics involved. His Colorado Springs experimental tower did just that to Colorado Springs in 1899. The HAARP project in Alaska that DoD built is based on the same Tesla principals. Sweden and Russia have larger facilities that do the same. Anyone can with a mild interest in electronics can build what Tesla did using 19th century materials and his technology. What is more, from a scientific standpoint, it might actually be alot of fun picking up where Tesla left off.
So, stop and think about it, why the exclusive scenerios for nuclear weapons? With a little imagination and other tried and true technologies, there is really no need for any terrorist to go to all the trouble of obtaining a nuke and all the potential hazards that come with it.
So, stop and think about it, why the exclusive scenerios for nuclear weapons?
Great post! The scenarios were exclusive for nuclear weapons in this one because that was the focus of this particular post, obviously.
you guys are all dumb. stop being so dumb
instead of individual sites, i would group similar ones together and rank them based on probability of effecting similar results for mayhem. something like:
1. religious icons/locales – mecca, israel, rome, etc.
2. supervolcano locales – usa, indonesia.
3. cities: (nyc, london, beijing), (teheran, tokyo), (boston, sf, mexico city), etc.
Nuke Mecca. You think Muslims are pissed off now? This would bring the global jihad to the forefront without any doubletalk. Though the blast would not be significant on its own, the repurcussions would be unrelenting, eternal terrrorism, until all dhimmis are converted/killed or all muslims killed.
V.R. Hanoj,
“What you should have done is explained how to avert such a disaster”.
Michael Anissimov,
“Diclaimer: If this post bothers you, please do spend some time coming up with potential counter measures. THE POINT IS TO ENCOURAGE PEOPLE TO THINK ABOUT THESE TYPES OF RISK IN MORE DETAIL, SO WE CAN IMPLEMENT SOLUTIONS BEFORE THE UNTHINKABLE HAPPENS”.
Perhaps if Mr. Hanoj were paying attention he would have realized that “thinking in those lines” was precisely what you were doing.
Michael,
Thanks for adressing the hard topics. What I see is a pattern of the dissenters on this site showing fear of doing just that. You seem to understand quite clearly that it is not just up to the government to come up with all the answers and I applaude that. In fact by the truest definition “We the people” are the governemnt and have at the very least a moral obligation to work towards a safer, healthier and more successful Country. With that in mind I once again applaude you for your efforts to start an intelligent discussion with the goal of doing just that and commend your patience in dealing with the ignorants that only want to slander something for lack of comprehension.
None of these scenarios would result in the extinction of our species.
None of these scenarios would result in the extinction of our species.
The Yellowstone caldera could come awfully close. But yeah, thanks for pointing that out. In the future I will probably go over the real existential risks.
so many of you people post postings without reading what this guy is saying, first off, hitting Tehran is not #1 but #6 on the list and he counts down to #1, read carefully people! Also, this guy isnt doing anything but pointing out issues that may be very serious, and all you who think it to be crazy to sit and write things of this sort should know that many people are preping as we speak to think of counter measures. The yellowstone scenario is very very serious and doable! I actually thought of it yesterday as I watched a Discover channel program on it and when I searched for related sites this came up. The only thing I feel is that with all the recent problems and likelihood of us all dying soon, it all makes me live a more quality-oriented life because I seriousely think pretty soon some group will do something to dramatically alter life on earth and kill millions in the process. So live and love the ones close to you while you still can!
Just out of curiosity, how many reading this far have touched, or even seen in person (besides me, of course) a nuclear weapon?
Jim
Just out of curiosity, how many reading this far have touched, or even seen in person (besides me, of course) a nuclear weapon?
Send me your story!!!
Jim wrote:
Just out of curiosity, how many reading this far have touched, or even seen in person (besides me, of course) a nuclear weapon?
Micheal replied:
Send me your story!!!
Anna’s questions:
Micheal, have you touched or even seen in
person a nuclear weapon?
Have you seen the devastation in person what
a nuclear weapon can do?
Your disclaimer says:
Disclaimer: if this post bothers you, please do spend some time coming up with potential countermeasures. The point is to encourage people to think about these types of risk in more detail, so we can implement solutions before the unthinkable happens.
Anna replies:
Why bring up a point if you, yourself, have no countermeasures?
If you want to encourage people, you do not help them to know how to blow up the planet.
You write countermeasures to encourage people to not blow up the planet.
That was my point:)
Anna:)
Why bring up a point if you, yourself, have no countermeasures?
I DO, JESUS. IT WOULD BE AN ISSUE EVEN IF I DIDN’T.
The countermeasures are here:
singinst.org
lifeboat.com
Micheal wrote:
I DO, JESUS. IT WOULD BE AN ISSUE EVEN IF I DIDN’T
It will always be an issue.
“The bombs get bigger but the behavior stays the same”
You are bringing up an issue that already exists and that always has but using technology to say that it will be because of technology.
Small bombs existed first, then bigger bombs became available. So what?
How is this beneficial to any cause?
Encouraging people to promote technology has nothing to do with the possibility that we will nuke ourselves.
Bigger bombs will not lead to benefit behaviour.
If you can contradict me, I would like a better response than “Jesus”, he can’t respond, he’s dead:)
Anna:)
I still think we should unite as a planet and destroy Saturn. Not only is it a perverse astrological influence, but it is garish, like Paris Hilton.
My apology Micheal,
Here I was thinking that some freak was trying to teach humanity how to blow themselves up.
A quick link to your site would have made a huge difference in understanding your point of view.
Great site.
Anna:)
I’m surprised that Mumbai isn’t on your list. Not only would the human casualties be horrific, it would very likely start a nuclear war between Pakistan and India.
Nice read! A very interesting topic indeed. Very plausible things that I think are not that far off. I firmly believe that in my lifetime (I’m 30 now), the world will see a terrorist nuclear attack, most likely in the USA somewhere…
i dont think if a 50 megaton bomb like tsar bomb was to drop on new york it would destroy the whole of it i think nuclear bombs are a waste of time to make they aint powerful enough
Oh, they’re pretty powerful. Have you ever tried to repel a nuclear blast? Believe me, it’s not easy. ;)
Some nice ideas but I think you miss the point that terrorists will want to damage the US while at the same time protecting/promoting their own country. Sending the world into a nuclear winter isn’t a happy happy joy joy situation for the majority of terorists so I don’t think it would happen.
Nuking weaknesses in the natural landscape is interesting but probably wouldn’t get the go ahead because of the risk that it wont work. If you drop a nuke in a large empty park and the volcano doesn’t explode then you’ve wasted your time. Drop the same nuke in the city and you’re not reliant on a chain effect. X million dead, simple.
Posessing a nuke and getting it anywhere near the enemy is a hard enough thing to do, you wouldn’t want to waste it on an acme falling anvil type scheme.
How could you put something that disturbing on the web. I am a young kid and just looking at that makes me realize why my mom tells me not to go on the web because stupid people like you put stupid idiotic things on the web! boy you are a jjjeeerrrrkkk!
you are a jerk stupid head i want u to die how could u put something that mean on a website maybe someone will bomb u up! dieeee stupid jerk die
Funny how people are complaining about seeing this on the web, hmmm free flow of info…. isn’t that internet? Or maybe its a set of tubes.
It would be unfair to say you should not have written this, but it is just to unfair to all humanity for people to have these sort of aspirations.
I know there are people who would envisage this as an ambition for them, to get rid of the ‘lower class’, whle elitists all enter subterranean shelters to wait out the final solution.
What I am worried about is the matter of Global Nuclear War. The need to disarm the world immediately is so great. The relieving of that pressure would allow many scientists to focus on much more important projects (like planetary defences).
Saying that nuclear power is important for the global economy is rubbish. We have a perfectly good fusion reactor already in existence. It’s called the sun. In a country like Australia, where 85% of the land is desert (6 545 000 km2) with 99.9 out of 100 years of clear skies, solar power is entirely achievable.
This would not take decades. Without spending a cent on Nuclear technology (except dismantlement), it would take maybe 5 years to be powering Australia with solar energy. With our close proximity to Asia, and utilising the Gobi Desert as an auxilary source, Asia could be powered by the sun within a decade, maybe 15 years. Thats over half the world population.
Infrastructure implementation would be accelerated by increased funding, diverted from nuclear spendings, and maybe even a little less pending on military endeavours (US$2.7 trillion every ten years in the USA alone – at least thats what they are admitting to).
When are humans going to realise that we have the sentience already to achieve this? I am all for AI, I want robots in our everyday life (not those evil self-replicators), but human endeavours should chart our course, not ‘trans-human’.
I have faith in one thing above all else: the compassion and empathy of a human being. We are all capable of amazing and great things. The nuclear future we have ceated in the past 68 years is abominable, and a shameful discredit to our species.
We are not just protectors of civilization now, we must protect the whole geosphere fom a menace without peer – ourselves. Humans must realise that borders are imaginary, whether they be drawn on a map, imposed on development, or supposed to exist on the frontiers of space.
The whole universe is connected, and our solar system, despite it’s seeming isolation, is really an approximate model of the whole universe. We do not need to reach out into the universe, we are already in it.
We only have one life, no matter what creationists or evolutionists say, and immortality is not a realistic goal for humanity (not to say it is unattainable, but is it ethical?). It is time we started practicing these qualities we envisage for our AI friends, qualities of value for EVERY life, human or otherwise.
We need to start assesing our future as a world community, not as an association of ‘United Nations’. I have seen no Unity in my short life, only war, plague and famine, all human induced.
Call me utopian in my outlook, but what is wrong with Utopia? When all the world needs now is love, imagination and creativity, why do we instead seek war, introversion and generic stylisation of our society?
What do you want?
I want cheap nuclear power reactors, which consume less space, and cost less per kilowatt hour, than any other alternative.
There are problems with America throughout the world, reasons which we youngsters do not understand, only their passion to rule the world. Saddly, communist was banished, and democratic Russia was born. Russia is free now, their nationalism is free. Russia was ruled by jews, the bolsheviks were jews, stalin was a jew, trotsky was a jew, i believe lenin was a jew. These jews hated Russians, the reason i do not know, but many people were exiled to Siberia. You do not understimate Russia, not because they got thousands beyond thousands of nukes pointing to every single American and Canadian town! But Russians are intelligent, more intelligent than Americans. But they know political to strike, and Americans one day will pay for their consequences. Sadly, your country had this passion of “negro slaving”, which is absurd and foreshadows the state in WW2, with hitler. There are many secrets in this world..of the evil countries, that join pacts. The vatican, probably the most secret organization there is, has dark sides, beginning in the dark ages. They are brainwashers, they do not care what you are, if ur not roman catholic, you must die or become a catholic. REMEMBER, Russia is watching, Bush’s facsist, ethnic cleansing of the world, will tick somebody off some day, and thats when the last thing your going to see is 10′s of thousands of nukes destroying ur beloved fascist country, since george washington, the communist walked on ur lands!
‘I want cheap nuclear power reactors, which consume less space, and cost less per kilowatt hour, than any other alternative.’ – Michael Anissimov.
There is no point in saying that these reactors cost less, there is still the problem of the 400 000 years or so that the waste takes to cease to be radio active. Just because Australia sells Uranium to the world, doesn’t mean we have to take the waste back and dump it in our desert. Solar power is the future. With the limited technology we have today we could still build solar stations that could remain operational for centuries with the right amount of caretaking. Nuclear industry is not at all desirable in a future ecumenical society, as it is too susceptible to radicalism, and a danger to security.
Why is the U.S always the target? Common….Can’t someone just nuke the middle east for once? Them and any other terrorist nations. Oh, I almost forgot. Nuke all the communist nations too. (Execpt Cuba. Too close.) ;D
With countrys like Iran and N.K gone. What? Hear that guys? Sounds like the start world peace to me. ;)
Smart comments NoneYa, why stop there? Don’t we have other foes to wipe out? Honestly…, and Ned, who cares what faith people have? I’m sure that there is evil in the world, but remember, Judge not lest ye be judged. I think we need to stop trying to kill each other and wake up to the fact that we’re all in this together. C’mon, people, get together. Be happy, live long and prosper.
And anyway, people of all faiths come in many different extremes. Not every one is a fundementalist (don’t care if thats how you spell it). Like I keep saying, we are all human, and we all deserve respect, dignity, and life essentials. Use your intelligence and say yes to tomorrow, and no to yesterday.
wow
You are a bit off on your weapon payload values.
Russia detonated a FIFTY megaton bomb in the eighties. The project was known as TSAR BOMBA, King of Bombs. It is the largest weapon ever detonated.
The largest the US has detonated is a 20 megaton bomb, however we possess the technology for a much more powerful explosion.
In response to some of you talking about your nuclear power issues, consider this. Nuclear power is MUCH CHEAPER to produce. The waste takes up MUCH LESS space, and it can be made relatively safe. Yes, the waste takes thousands of years to degrade into lead, however, we can get rid of the waste in many ways. Bury it in a mountain, shoot it off into space. Leaving earths orbit will become much easier in the future. You could stick it on the moon, or send it in towards the sun. No damage done there.
1 Megaton is considered the limit to nuke power for TACTICAL uses, however much more powerful bombs can be made.
Did you ever consider a neutron bomb? A neutron bomb detonated in the right area would kill almost all life, and knock out all electronics, while causing MINIMAL physical damage.
Looking past physical damage and economic disaster, you have to take into account mental warfare. The more you scare, infuriate, and disencourage people the more damage you do. Destroying the statue of liberty would be a powerful effect on American minds. Destroying mecca would completely enrage muslims. Or maybe destroying the vatican?
There are so many more possibilites than what you have listed here. If someone with the wrong intent and the right inteligence was to get their hands on a 1 megaton bomb, they could very well throw the world into a state of chaos.
Once again, solar power IS cheap once the infrastructure is there. And, unfortunately, when taking into account the waste produced by nuclear power, atomic energy just isn’t worth it. Go solar. It’s a non destructive, ethically sound option.
Some countermeasures, hey? What sort of countermeasures exist for these types of events? Other than elaborate shelters or genetic adaptation, there aren’t many. One good one is nanobots that can clean up fallout and repair damaged buildings. These could be used if NYC or Washington et al were nuked. The methane clathrate, gain, nanobots into the atmosphere to convert the gases into less volatile compounds. The caldera, this one is tough. How can you mitigate or prevent the effects of that from having an extreme impact on humanity? Underground shelters, sure, but the loss of life in the USA and Canada from such an eruption would be terrible. Millions would be buried in ash and lava. Some coutermeasures include research into stabilising and/or closing up the magma chamber beneath the caldera. Is this sort of engineering possible, even with future tech? The Iran bit is quite simple, don’t just nuke Tehran, nuke the whole sub-continent…ok, that was a joke. But once again, counter measures for the whole war in the middle east could be for all nations outside the region to step aside, remove the remaining nuclear arsenal, and let them fight out thier own war. There is no real need for ‘western’ intervention in the middle east, and most ‘western’ intervention (including Russia and China) has only intensified the fighting, and made it a global problem.
Nanobots and free religion are two major factors to consider for coutermeasures, and indeed pre-emptive measures, for these and other potential hazards to human life.
I like number #2, given half a chance this one will do it all by itself and soon – no nuke required – this volcano is already very unstable. Whereas #1 will require a decent nudge as you stated.
Tsunamis are nasty brutes, with Cumbre Viejo the Atlantic has probably the greatest present threat, and yet it only seems to be the Pacific and now Indian Oceans that really get monitored.
Mike, that is awsome, I think about this kind of stuff alot, especcially after I see the movie Wargames. Some of those I wouldnt have thought of, but now I can see why. But if you want MAD, Mutally Assured Destruction, you go for US, Russia, China, and India. Thats more than 14000 nukes involved right there. And those are the worlds supplyers of oil and other goods needed to run a nation.
Mike, how is it that the mega-tsunami generated when the western flank of the cumbre vieja slides into the Atlantic will circle the globe three times? Wouldn’t it stop once it hit the US and South America?
you are a sick minded terrorist!
Did Osama teach u this crap?
U.s has so many anti nukes
plus terrorists goal is to spread messages.
FREAK!!!!
go die
i should report you to police
Shock!
Mr. Q. sucks ass. ; D
Dumbass Ryan said:
>>> i should report you to police
For what, exactly?
What exactly is an “anti-nuke”?
And a terrorist’s goal is to spread fear, not messages.
Next time you feel the urge to spout off that verbal diarrhea you consider to be “insight”, don’t. You appear that much less stupid to everyone for your effort.
Basically, if you’re going to nuke someone then please make sure it’s the French :P
You are mad, my fellow, I tell you, absolutely mad! If those men of the eleventh could get their hands on this they would certainly take some of these plots into consideration. But perhaps a better scenario for global destruction is a Tunguskan-like alien body several miles in diameter falling from the sky and into land. We would enter through the same precise door the dinosaurs did on their way to the afterlife here on earth!
Well, no one else seems to want to ‘press the issue’ as much as I do. Countermeasures people, countermeasures. I thought mine were a bit of alright. By the way, one way to really mess with the USA government (ie not the actual population) is to destroy all of the Joint Defence groundsites like Pine Gap et al. This would take out a large amount of the surveilance capabilty of both the USA and Australia/UK.
Dude u r a dickhead, stop being such a little nerd
still enjoy reading the infrequent additions to the comments on this page. would like to thank michael for opening up this discussion. it’s something that has always been on my mind. i hate nukes, but am fascinated all the same
how about just using a 500megatonne payload..and drop it anywere…cause enough damage :)
There’s plenty of nukes available out there right now, you don’t need ultra-sophisticated nano centrifuges. All you need is a government like that of the this country, the USA, to give a nuke to terrorists. We helped them get the money and stuff they needed to do 911 so we could go to war in Iraq. Then bam we could stir up all the wars we need for that OIL.
See, we’re so dependent on oil. A lot of the rest of the world is too, but us especially so. And it’s bad.
Oil, is a limited resource. According to what’s called the Hubbert model, oil will not just run out one day. Instead it will get harder and harder to get at after a certain “peak” point of production. When the worldwide “peak” of production occurs is not known. It could have already happened and we’re on a jagged plateau. Or it could still be a few more years off. But it’s going to be soon, and it will be followed by a gradual decline and dropoff of production.
So then with places like the USA where consumerism runs rampant and people are resistant to change (as that would mean ultimately less money for the rich to indulge themselves), this loss of consumable will hit hard. Bam! Time for war to seize it so we can keep guzzling it. Give the terrorists a nuke? Sure. Bam, war.
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Dear Michael
Kill yourself.
Love,
New York Fucking City
“We are assuming a 1 megaton bomb due to simplicity – this yield is about twice that of the most powerful fission bomb produced by the US, the Mk 18,which used 60 kg of enriched uranium. With nanofactories, building extremely high-quality centrifuges will become easy, making large quantities of enriched uranium accessible to any organization with uranium ore.” – Michael Anissimov
You don’t need nanofactories or future tech for Megaton bombs, Michael.
Mike shot of Operation Ivy, yield 10.4 megatons, November 1, 1952 US
Tsar Bomba, yield 50 megatons (design capable of up to 100 Mt), October 30, 1961 USSR
W56 US service warhead ‘minuteman’, yeild 1.2 Mt – http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/W56
If you nuked Washington, The US would pick up the signal of the nuke and either get everyone out and gone, or send a missile out to blow it up over the sea. If it wasn’t airborne then it wouldn’t matter, but something to ponder.
Wow, you know these people dont read well, its not the nuke that would cause the Tsunami, its the landslide triggered by it, and these are very well thought out, nicely done.
nuke yellowstone and you’ll die too so good place to strike if u r a terrorist
Ok, when are we going to start?
(pd: just kidding)
Good job, well thought out. However, I would place the nuking of D.C. and the methane deposits higher. If this is going by “leans towards detonation targets that do damage to the United States in particular”, than there isn’t anything higher than killing off the entire legislative and exectutive branches, as well as most of the judicial brach, presuming they aren’t on holiday. But in relation to the world, the methane deposits or the Yellowstone caledra would definately be best.
Is the delivery from air or the ground? I only ask because if the delivery was from an airplane as opposed to a car it would nearly double the radius. I like this post :)
You are all stupid fucks. The terrorists saw this recipe how it;s called but.. they wouldn’t do that? Our politicians didn’t you see any difference betwen the two?
WOW!That was interesting…
You could utilize an air burst (detonation at under 30k) to have a far greater fallot radius, with the actual blast still being pretty destructive. While instant casulities would be far lower, you’d cause substantially more radiation damage. If gunning for human casulties, drop it over a country with high population densitity and no healthcare/hospital/etc system in existance would be able to deal with that many cases of raditaion poisoning.
A 1-megaton nuke with a cobolt jacket (to greatly up the fallout half-life) detonated in high altitude over any area devoted to crops or food production would be pretty economically damaging. Hit food production areas of China or Africa, and not only will all the crops be rendered un-edible, irradiated soil and fallout would prevent further growth for upwards of a decade, greatly dropping off food in the world, and setting back the targeted country for a very long time.
The really bad scenario would be nuking the moon sufficently enough to break it up, from the lack of tides and psychological effects alone, not to mention the chunks of the moon falling to earth. Be pretty hard to stop, too, what with most of the anti-nuke measures being set up around the key areas of countries, rather than the upper atmosphere.
… You must have a lot of spare time buddy… Sheesh… Yellowstone… Lord Above…
This was well-thought-out Mike, although you could have put more like an “EMP burst” or an “airburst” which would cover MASSIVE amounts of ground killing millions and destroying a lot or a strike to a sattelite disabling 90% of americas army and disabling missle targeting systems and making america unable to defend, making the U.S. easily conquered throwing world power out of balance, Over all I thank you for posting this, it is not “dark” or “sick” to write about this as others put, it is very helpful and intellegent.
JEESUS CHRIST! you guys are idiots, Mike is not “teaching people to blow us up” he is simply stating what could happen. What is “sick” or “cruel” about this?! Mike is simply posting effects and you retards are well, being retarded by saying he is somehow evil by posting this. Terrorists dont need a website to tell them how to nuke the world because there is no such website that can tell them what they dont already know and there is still the fact the terrorists DONT have WMDs, or we would all be dead. Tim America is in no way communist, you piece of crap, your just stupid. Thanks for posting this Mike.
P.S. screw you Ned, commy piece of crap.
Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt, Pakistan part of anti-Israel coalition? Never going to happen cause they wouldn’t want to upset the US. Egypt has never had close ties with Iran, all Saudi Arabia wants to do is sell oil to the US, Turkey wants Iran to keep the Kurds in check, not to mention it’ll be an Iranian oil transiting country (very profitable) soon, and it has more American bases than any other eurasian country. Not to mention the Turkish military would seize power in a coup the very minute the government declared its intent to join a muslim coalition against the West. Pakistan is way too far and way too poor to have any kind of remote interest in waging war on Israel.
A nuclear strike would upset Syria though, because Iran is their one major ally in the region, as well as Russia, who is very interested in Iranian energy.
Really, islam is much, much farther from being a basis of multinational alliance than people think because national interests are a much more compelling driving force. It’s a case of mass, uninformed, irrational paranoia.
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If Israel is hit, they will hit back with everything they’ve got. I think Iran knows that, but slimy little Ahmadinajab is crazy enough to try to usher in the 12th Imam by nuking Israel. He could try a double strike… Israel AND the US at the same time…you know, trying to knock out ‘big satan’ and ‘little satan’ at the same time.
Nuking Washington DC isn’t such a bad idea… at least we would get rid of the loons in Congress. But I jest.
If terrorists took out 5 major cities at once (think ‘Jericho’) just in the US… we’d probably be done. So much chaos would send shock waves through society that would shut everything down… look at 9-11. If you magnify that by 1000+, I don’t know if the US would make it. And we can disarm & talk until the cows come home… the radical terrorists and the little tyrants like Kim Jong Il in North Korea will forever attempt to make war with someone.
I never thought of nuking a natural formation, but from what you’ve said here, I can see how a terrorist group could consider such a thing. Heck, I never thought of flying a plane into a building… what kind of people think of these things anyway? You are right… people with no regard for life.
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The graphic of Yellowstone volcanic caldera is actually for the Long Valley Caldera in California. Get your fact straight before suggesting anything.
I’ve got another option: Destroy the whole US so the world will live in peace.
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but if you bombed mecca, or the plastien or whatever it is that the pope lives in, it would cause a MASSIVE world war, so the casualties would be very high
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hehe ?wietny artyku? :) zrobisz jeszcze karier?! Ja osobi?cie ubóstwiam Ci? czyta? i zawsze czekam na nast?pne wpisy :) mam nadziej?, ?e b?dziesz dla nas tworzy? cz??ciej!
Szkoda, ?e tak interesuj?cy temat zosta? potraktowany w tak p?ytki sposób. Oczekiwa?am czego? wi?cej, jaki? ciekawszych przyk?adów, bardziej jednoznacznej oceny. Generalnie, czego? bardziej wyrazistego.
A mi si? bardzo podoba! Wielki plus za takie przedstawienie tematu. Jestem stanowczo po Twojej stronie :D
Bycza strona, zdecydowanie godna polecenia. Prowadz? podobn?, ale nie pisz? tak ?wietnie… By? mo?e si? naucze czego? u ciebie :D
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No, tak, niby tak, ale czy to wyjasnienie tego terminu jest prawdziwe? http://pl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reklama_spo%C5%82eczna Jak do tego nawiazesz?
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