Solar/Kinetic Weapons in the News Wednesday, Nov 29 2006
risks 9:07 am
From IOL Technology in NZ:
Reports in the US suggest that ideas either on the drawing board, or else already in development, include killer satellites that could destroy an enemy’s satellites, a Common Aero Vehicle (CAV) that could swoop with hypersonic speed up to 3000 miles to attack a target, Hyper-Velocity Rod Bundles which would fire tungsten bars weighing 100kg from a permanently orbiting platform - and even a space-based laser that uses mirrors to direct the sun’s rays against ground targets.
I talked about rods earlier… also, I’m starting to get worried about trends in the direction of solar weapons, i.e., weapons that use the sun’s power to incinerate things. These have a lot of potential, and are potentially much stronger than nuclear weapons. It’s one of three superweapons that should be banned forever - nuclear (ICBMs), solar (beams), and kinetic weapons (meteors), with ascending severity. Following is a (rough) excerpt from a work in progress that reviews twelve major existential threats in detail, “Catastrophic Technological Risk”:
Solar weapons are a serious concern because there is both the tendency to underestimate what the world’s superpowers will be capable of within this area in the next 20-50 years, and the general feel-good sensation associated with solar power that makes it seem so utterly harmless.
For this risk, the biggest worry is the threat of an arms race between two or more powerful countries. Bigger, faster weapons and shields precipitate the creation of newer, bigger, and faster weapons and shields, still followed by weapons and shields that are yet bigger and faster, and so on. The only natural endpoints of such a world-endangering endeavor would be victory for a single country, which would probably consist of the creation of a system capable of instantaneously immobilizing an entire enemy nation, or an explosive, all-out war, which may include nuclear weapons, but would be post-nuclear in its scope and severity.
Solar weapons are especially attractive to militaries because they would trump nuclear weapons. Intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) are physical objects that must propel themselves to their destination – directed energy moves at the speed of light, and requires sophisticated active shielding to effectively protect against. At the highest intensities, shielding may be impossible, even in principle. This gives attackers a first strike advantage on the solar battlefield.
One might say that solar energy and directed energy are not the same thing, and that what I’m actually talking about is directed energy, not ‘solar weapons’ per se. But there is a reason I am talking about solar weapons specifically. Fossil fuels could not possibly produce the output necessary to power the weapons that are being foreseen here – it would simply be too expensive. Nuclear is definitely a possibility, but it’s easier to talk about ‘solar weapons’ than ‘nuclear-powered electromagnetic weapons’, so just consider the latter included in this category of risk.
In the past, directed energy has been plagued by various development problems. Most weapons only work when skies are relatively clear, though newer models attempt to be more flexible. Weapons of the future will circumvent the limitations of the past. The most powerful solar weapons will push aside air molecules before sending the primary energy arc down the channel, and this will all happen within fractions of a second, even when the target is dozens of km away. Infrared, auditory, electrical, laser, and particle-based superweapons are all conceivable. ‘Artificial lightning’ will be available to the military commanders of the future. This is not speculative – hundreds of millions of dollars went towards directed energy research in 2005, and dozens of projects are either on the drawing board or already in development.
Directed energy weapons will be mounted on ships, planes, jeeps, helicopters, even individual soldiers. The directed energy weapons of concern are in the TW range, and are likely to be mounted on ships, though next-generation power plants may offer MW/g power densities, allowing the superweapons to be miniaturized. A terawatt-level electric discharge would be equivalent to hundreds of lightning strikes, though the intensity of a lightning strike is not necessary to destroy most targets.
To imagine the long-term potential of solar weapons, consider concentrating the energy of a substantial area of sunlight (100 km2) within a 0.5 km2 area, causing the intensity of sunlight to be a hundred times greater (assuming 25% efficiency) in that region. Or, if it is night, projecting energy a hundred times greater than if the sun suddenly rose. Because air is practically transparent to thermal energy, there would be nowhere to run, except underground, or underwater. People on the street would be boiled alive in the intense heat. All moisture would on the air and ground would quickly be converted to steam, some with explosive force.
Welcome to the Future!

November 29th, 2006 at 11:28 am
I have been thinking about the potential of solar reflector mirrors for a while, and they have always seemed to me to be a very desirable replacement for nukes. Far more precise, no fallout, and essentially irresistable. Also intrinsically difficult to hide, intrinsically credible threats, and fantastically expensive. I doubt that you need to focus 100X solar intensity. Much less than that should be able to quickly ignite everything in the target area, which could be swept accross an arbitrarily large target area.
When not being used as weapons, such arrays could generate power via stirling engines or solar steam turbines.
Realistically though, it’s probably cheaper and more versatile to exert ground level control with small robots.
November 29th, 2006 at 2:48 pm
“intrinsically difficult to hide,”
The downside of this is that they could easily be blasted out of the sky once war is declared. Space mirrors are not known for their sturdiness.
“Much less than that should be able to quickly ignite everything in the target area,”
And how do we know this? We made it up!
Seriously, suppose you have a standard magnifying glass ten centimeters in diameter and a focal distance of 20 cm. The size of the image of the Sun will be equal to (focal distance * (diam. Sun / dist. Sun)), or roughly two millimeters. The Sun’s light will thus be focused on an area one ten-thousandth as large, and thus will be ten thousand times as bright. Go ahead and try to ignite something as flammable as a piece of cotton cloth with such a glass. I’ve done it before, and what happens is the cotton chars but won’t ignite, there isn’t enough heat available. The Sun would provide about ten watts, in comparison to an average candle’s forty watts, so there’s plenty of power; the problem is, I think, that there’s no way to use all the energy at a single point in time.
November 29th, 2006 at 3:10 pm
http://www.solardeathray.com gives a good idea of what a really small and simple array of mirrors can do.
Blasting many square km of mirrors out of the sky wouldn’t be so easy, especially if they were defended.
And how do we know this? We made it up!
Most people that bother to comment do actually put some rigor into their arguments, i.e., they don’t just make things up…
November 29th, 2006 at 5:07 pm
A fleet of nuclear subs can:
- blow up anything that needs to be blown up
- dispersed all over the world’s oceans, so it can’t be destroyed without the destroying the world
- be kept hidden until need (including during construction)
A cosmic death ray is not really “first strike” if you count the years it takes to build the thing, during which it’s completely exposed and vulnerable.
November 29th, 2006 at 6:25 pm
Nuclear subs can be detected with sonar and pummeled with missiles, and nuclear missiles can be deactivated before hitting the target. The oceanic battlefields of the future will be covered with smart sensors, and a sub is a huge object.
In space, there are few erosive forces for nonbiological materials, so fraction-of-a-mm-thick mirrors can be deployed. A single kg of mirror could cover ten square meters or so (assuming mirror thickness of 1/10 mm), and you’d be sending up several tens of tons of material, at least - enough to cover maybe a square kilometer. The material would be shaped into rolls and unfurled in orbit. Yes, we don’t have the tech for this today, but 10-50 years down the road, you bet we will.
Deploy ten of these systems in LEO/GEO, and you could probably triple light intensity in a square km area on the ground. As a reference, the Space Shuttle can carry about 20 metric tons into low earth orbit.
Bringing these down requires something that can make it into space, and somehow avoid being fried before it exits the atmosphere. Space launches are quite expensive, unless the cost comes down by a factor of 100 (which it could), you can’t afford not to succeed on the first or second try.
November 29th, 2006 at 8:26 pm
“Blasting many square km of mirrors out of the sky wouldn’t be so easy, especially if they were defended.”
You can’t just “blast something out of the sky” in space, as the center of mass will just keep orbiting. Such mirrors would have to be gossamer-thin to both be large and liftable, and so you would just have to knock out the structural supports and they would very quickly lose any semblance of targeting due to solar pressure and inertia.
“Nuclear subs can be detected with sonar and pummeled with missiles,”
ICBMs take at least twenty minutes to hit, providing plenty of time for an escape, and water is an excellent buffer for nuclear explosions. The largest bomb ever built, Tsar Bomba, had the power to boil only 0.03 km^3 of water; the radiation would be quickly absorbed, and shockwaves are not transmitted well in water (the motion of the liquid is an effective dampener).
“and nuclear missiles can be deactivated before hitting the target.”
Which is why the government spend over $20 billion on Star Wars with next-to-no results. Seriously, if you can deactivate a missile at will, you could simply shut off the enemy’s electrical power, and they would surrender very quickly due to the inability of civilization to sustain itself without constant maintenance.
“assuming mirror thickness of 1/10 mm”
Any realistic mirror system would be even thinner, and we have the technology today for much thinner materials (aluminized Mylar is only 0.005 mm thick).
“http://www.solardeathray.com gives a good idea of what a really small and simple array of mirrors can do.”
They got the same results as I did: charring but no actual ignition. And notice how the metal grid behind the various objects is always undamaged; most of the materials destroyed are organic, with low melting points (even hard plastic melts at a surprisingly low temperature, only around 120-160 C).
November 30th, 2006 at 12:20 am
Solar amplification on a large scale would be far more destructive, for a given level of amplification, than on a small scale. On a small scale you’re losing most of the heat generated to conduction and convection, but on a large enough scale the heat generated would be limited only by energy losses from radiation of heat, so with 100-fold amplification you could get close to 1000 degrees celsius (plug in 100 x 1350 W/m^2 into the Stefan-Boltzmann law to get 969 degrees; the emissivity cancels out insofar as it applies to both absorbtion and emission)
That being said, solar weapons, which require large scale engineering and are tough to hide, are less worrying than nuclear weapons that can be made secretly, and potentially delivered anonymously.
November 30th, 2006 at 10:53 am
Even if you knew the location of every enemy sub in the ocean, that would just put them on par with solar energy weapons in terms of visibility. And any technology that can deactivate a nuclear missile before it hits its target can also be used to deactive a big, slow rocket carrying several tons out into space.
OK forget the details. Here’s the situation in abstract form: A sub fleet is a collection of n objects, dispersed throughout the oceans, and which remains a threat as long as n>0. n is constrained only by your technology and can otherwise be made arbitrarily large. A cosmic death ray is a big shiny thing which needs to remain big and shiny to work, and its size is constrained by the intensity of sunlight and cannot be made smaller than some (very large) size, no matter what the technology.
November 30th, 2006 at 1:19 pm
“You can’t just “blast something out of the sky” in space, as the center of mass will just keep orbiting. Such mirrors would have to be gossamer-thin to both be large and liftable, and so you would just have to knock out the structural supports and they would very quickly lose any semblance of targeting due to solar pressure and inertia.”
Structural supports? Not required, or even desirable. Much effort is being expended to develop satellites which fly autonomously in very precise formations. Using this technology to create a vast space mirror, there would be no support framework, and it would be even more difficult to destroy thousands of individual mirror segments with no physical attachment to each other.
http://www.gsfc.nasa.gov/topstory/20010601eo1.html
December 3rd, 2006 at 2:11 pm
A couple of Tom’s technical points are incorrect.
With the magnifying glass example, the heat is rapidly being carried away from the (tiny) target point by convection (and to a lesser extent, conduction). Convective cooling does not scale up in proportion to the area undergoing heating; eventually cold air can’t be drawn in quick enough and the area just becomes blanketed in superheated air. I am also dubious about whether a 10x intensity increase is enough to do any real damage to manmade structures (though tracking that slowly across croplands might well destroy them), but you can’t just extrapolate the effects from experiments with a magnifying glass.
As for nuclear explosions in water, while it does indeed take a lot of energy to vaporise water, water actually transmits shockwaves very well. Submarine hulls are relatively vulnerable to sudden overpressures, which is why the US and Russian navies carry nuclear-tipped torpedoes (and formerly nuclear depth charges!) for use against targets where a direct hit is unlikely.