The pictured colony is certainly a big one. Kalpana One is currently my favorite space colony design, in terms of relative feasibility and usefulness. One might ask, “what’s the point of spending tons of money on building a space colony when Friendly AI could build us one for free, and when unFriendly AI could easily take down such a colony?” The reasons are, 1) governments will spend money on space colonization whether we want them to or not, so we might as well keep an eye on the field, 2) space colonies are an insurance policy against pre-AI disasters, 3) the prospect is inspiring in general, and even if such colonies are never produced en masse in the real world, they’ll still be featured in the fictional worlds we choose to inhabit.
The pictured colony looks really, really huge. Probably would weigh trillions of tons. Seems to be about 50km across at the torus, maybe 1000km across total.
2.5) They’re also an insurance policy against seed AI being much harder than the average Singularitarian assumes.
More artwork(including high-res)at NASA.
Personally, I’ve always preferred open-type O’Neill colonys, on aesthetic grounds.
This looks like something I saw decades ago. Having grown up as a space enthusiast it often pains me to see how little progress we’ve made in this field. I’m not saying we haven’t seen any progress, but it has been very limited and constrained by the shuttle and NASA.
I get the feeling that we’re on the verge of being surprised at a break out of the caged beast. Rutan’s winning of the Ansari X-prize may be the start of something very interesting.
Of course I’d have thought we’d be seeing such things like this colony flying a long time ago if I’d exprapolated the visions of the early space pioneers… So I’ll keep wearing my skeptical hat a while longer.
2.5) They’re also an insurance policy against seed AI being much harder than the average Singularitarian assumes.
No. Even if seed AI is extremely hard and takes 100 years, no quantity of space colonies helps protect you against rogue AI. Only Friendly AI can do that. What do you mean “insurance policy”? Insurance against what?
“What do you mean “insurance policyâ€? Insurance against what?”
Insurance, presumably, against nanotech and political disasters on Earth, if we don’t have FAI around soon enough to prevent them.
“I get the feeling that we’re on the verge of being surprised at a break out of the caged beast. Rutan’s winning of the Ansari X-prize may be the start of something very interesting.”
A hydrogen-powered scramjet engine has such a high specific impulse- about two to ten times a conventional rocket, depending on various factors- that the fuel need not be the majority component of the rocket. This and cheap replaceable heat shields (as compared to Apollo’s get-rid-of-the-whole-craft or the Space Shuttle’s absolutely-everything-must-be-reusable) should make cheap space travel very feasible. Same thing for NTR rockets. And keep in mind you get an additional factor of ten or so by cutting out the layers of government contracting and bureaucracy.
I mean, better protection against existential risk during that 100 years (i.e. a really long period during which “pre-AI disasters” might happen.) I realize space colonies are very unlikely to stop rogue AI. That statement was on some level just a reaction to an attitude that unfortunately I see occasionally (fortunately not around here) that we don’t need to worry about mitigating risks over more than the next few years because seed AI is going to happen Really Soon Now.
The thing about AI is that the impact is so huge, even a tiny probability of it happening in the next 20 years practically justifies exclusive focus. I’m concerned that people underweight the importance of AI because they think it’s not a “cool topic” like space, or doesn’t “sound feasible” like other technologies seen more frequently in the news. Whether it’s “cool” or “sounds feasible” is really beside the point – it’s still the most important risk, and antirisk, to consider.
The people that think AI could be around the bend, for the most part, have no emotional reason to want it to happen sooner. The arguments for the near-term feasibility of AI seem relatively solid. Huge toroidal colonies, on the other hand, would take a long time to build and plan, even with MNT.
If you have a billion dollars, does it make more sense to invest it in space colonies, which mitigate pre-AI risks only, or FAI, which doesn’t mitigate pre-AI risks, but mitigates all AI and other risks comprehensively? It makes sense to invest the majority in FAI, while investing the minority in space colonies to deal with synthetic life and nanowar type risks. The other facet to consider is that the government and private companies are certain to spend money on space development, while spending practically nothing on FAI, making FAI all the more important.
That statement was on some level just a reaction to an attitude that unfortunately I see occasionally (fortunately not around here) that we don’t need to worry about mitigating risks over more than the next few years because seed AI is going to happen Really Soon Now.
PS. If you read the literature on this domain, you’ll see that what I say hints at this view strongly. The type of people who say this stuff are Singularitarians, of which there aren’t many altogether. There may be other risks out there, but many others are working on most of them. There are a few that don’t receive enough attention, like synthetic life and MNT-related risks, which is why I try to mention and research them as much as possible… but in the end you can only really have impact in one area, and FAI is probably the most worthwhile area to have impact in. Not to say that I don’t encourage cross-pollination and discussion between people focused on different areas. (That’s the point of the Lifeboat Foundation.)
wouldn’t something so huge effect the tides of earth?
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