Existential Risks: Serious Business.

So there was a rumor, possibly false (although the linked page builds on a mention from a scientist that was actually attending the event), that a Dr. Pianka wanted to kill 90% of humanity with ebola. His statement is here. The gist of his statement is that he actually just wouldn’t mind if humanity is killed by ebola, but wouldn’t actively pursue it. Still, the point is that there could be evil supergeniuses among us. (Read his statement for more detail.)

This issue reminds me of an acronym that Phillippe Van Nedervelde used in his talk on existential risks and the Lifeboat Foundation at Transvision 2007 — SIMAD — Single Individual, Massively Destructive. He also pointed to the Unabomber, and showed a picture of him when he was a math teacher, looking just like a typical professor. There is a risk from radical, out-of-control nutcases like Al Qaeda, yes, but these people tend to have problems infiltrating truly relevant organizations or acquiring the complex knowledge necessary to do real damage.

In the case of AI and synthetic biology, the biggest risks will come from smart people who have a grudge against society, and even those with noble motives but insufficient caution or sense of professional ethics. After all, if it were possible for humanity to destroy itself, it would have done so a long time ago… right? Wrong. Selection effects ensure that we will always find ourselves in a civilization that hasn’t previously destroyed it.

In the comments section of a blog I was reading yesterday, someone had this to say:

Much of the problem faced by those trying to tell us about existential risks is the fact that we’ve been bitten to hard and too long by wolf-criers for the past six years. As a result, ANYONE who talks about dangers is likely to get the cold shoulder, regardless of whether 1) they are sincere as opposed to jockeying for power, or 2) whether the risk they’re talking about is actually real or not.

This does seem true, and admonitions about global warming may be partially to blame, as well as terrorist fearmongering (some of which may also, in fact, be well-founded). Anthropogenic global warming is a reality, yes, but I don’t think it’s an existential risk, especially not in the next few decades. Bombardment with warnings on anthropogenic climate change, as well as terrorist attacks, is desensitizing the populace to warnings of existential risk. I’m not saying such warnings are a bad thing, just pointing out the fact that they’re desensitizing us. The fact that the most severe risks have to do with technologies just barely beginning to roll off the assembly lines — advanced AI and robotics, and synthetic biology — doesn’t help matters either.

But, as always, you, the reader, can refuse to be a part of the problem. You can take existential risk seriously, and refuse to write off those who discuss these dangers, like Martin Rees and Stephen Hawking, as “Doomsayers”. For most of the past 10,000 years, catastrophic technological risk has been impossible. Even global thermonuclear war would be more likely to kill off 10% or 20% of the population rather than 99% or 100%. And if you care about the long-term future of humankind as a whole, killing a billion and killing everyone makes a hell of a lot of difference.

(Other good posts on this domain: Concept Funneling, Rapture of the Nerds, Not.)

Comments

  1. Joshua Fox

    There was a controversy over what Dr _Pianka_ (rather than Painka) really said. Worse, the misreporting may come from “Intelligent Design” creationists who want to associate pro-extinctionism with evolutionary science. Pianka has posted his own page about the controversy, including a statement of his true position, here http://uts.cc.utexas.edu/~varanus/eric.html

  2. Nick Tarleton

    “Even global thermonuclear war would be more likely to kill off 10% or 20% of the population rather than 99% or 100%.”

    This sounds too low to be including secondary starvation and disease due to nuclear winter and infrastructure collapse.

  3. Bob Mottram

    I like to refer to people who are fixated with protestations of doom as “millennial doomsters”. It’s a phrase I first started using back in the late 1990s when the “millennium bug” was going to bring civilization to its knees, as prophesied in numerous books and newspaper articles of that time often written by seemingly credible and serious-minded people.

    Given events over the last five years or so I think it’s entirely justified that people should be highly sceptical about claims of catastrophic scenarios or politicians claiming that they will protect the public from Emmanuel Golstein-like bogeymen.

    Many of the risks which you’ve outlined on this blog I think are legitimate concerns, although they’re only likely to become visible to the average man in the street a decade or more from now. Most concerning is the potential for use of bioweapons, and the ease with which these might be manufactured by people possessing only modest means and education. Personally I don’t see artificial intelligence as an existential threat, unless you use a very strict and narrow definition as to what constitutes a human, but there are still plenty of other dangers which will need to be navigated through in the 21st century.

  4. Jonathan

    This guy is a freak. How many people would have clapped if he had said that he plans on killing everyone in the audience? After all, it’s good for society. Helps free up potential jobs and whatnot. Nobody would have. People can be happy about the human race dying because it isn’t real to them.

  5. Martin

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mims-Pianka_controversy

    What seems more likely, that a college professor advocated genocide while a crowd of hundreds applauded, and a single guy in the crowd stood up for what’s right and moral; or the professor said something else entirely, something completely uncontroversial with which the audience agreed, and one lone idiot misunderstood him?

  6. Rik

    What’s more likely: a) that some professor advocated one plan out of many, which may have been extreme or b) that he, said professor, is obviously a member of an educated group, which is (still) shunned from power, one that cannot live with nihilism in evolution or the indifference of current pop culture and one that would jump at the chance to grap Power and Do Something?

    AGW should of course be reduced to worries about future energy supplies, future food supplies and improving the quality of the places we inhabit. The End.

  7. Anything, and mean anything! that comes out of the Discovery Institute is to be considered a lie until proven otherwise…and even then I wouldn’t believe it. These are the dinosaurs in the Garden of Eden guys.

  8. John Donohue

    I don’t know why this would be so far off to some people, rather the human race is at a point where it is very, very violent and that some more advanced types would consider a kind of extinction as culling of the species. I don’t exactly know since I wasn’t there, and these things tend to get misreported but it is also true that various elite
    groups have supported Eugenics, population control ect. While guising it in medical research et al.
    I would encourage the citizen who does want information and not just the usual dose of sensationsalism to investigate for themselves.

  9. Steve mcgrath

    There are pro-life Christan contractors in Iraq practicing indiscriminate killing. There are powerful fundamentalist groups (pro Zionist) influencing the country’s foreign policy in an attempt to bring on the end times. There are creationists masquerading as scientists trying to discredit genuine scientists. I think it is clear what constitutes an existential threat.

  10. Steven MacGrath

    Pianka has every bit the “God complex” that he lets on in his talks. When he feels threatened he hides behind the kindly grandfather facade.

    Ever since “Limits to Growth”, these self annointed annhilators have roamed the hallways of academia looking for soldiers of the extermination.

    Just another problem to worry about. Just because he’s got a degree doesn’t mean he’s sane.

  11. Pauline

    All this recalls to my mind episodes of *Millinium*, a Chris Carter show that explored the millinial thoughts, experiences, and actions of some individuals and groups as we approached the year 2000. I live in Seattle, where the show took place. The last shows of the 2nd season ended with a bird virus that was transferable to humans and was man made from ebola, entering the public in Seattle-Tacoma. As if that wasn’t scary enough, after some Al-Queda guy was caught on the Canadian-U.S. border with a bomb intended for the Space Needle celebrations taking place that millinium New Year’s eve, I made sure to not be in Seattle.

    Anyhow, anyone check out the Drake equation in relation to this discussion?

  12. I always liked the show MILLENIUM. It was a shame that it was cut short due to poor ratings and those of us following it were left wondering where they had planned to go with the series.

  13. Great post, Michael. You may be interested in my anonymous blog and my recent discussion of your post on it:

    http://www.hopeanon.typepad.com

  14. Bob Unwin

    Base-rate neglect is probably more frequent when combined with a confirmation bias.

  15. Jim F.

    Nobody reads James Tiptree, Jr. anymore, it would seem.

    ‘In her breakthrough short story “The Last Flight of Dr. Ain,”
    published in 1969, she writes with sardonic affection about
    a scientist who spreads a deadly virus in hopes of cleansing
    the world of humanity, making a startlingly sympathetic character
    out of a man with genocide on his mind.’
    http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/20/books/review/20Itzkoff.html?ex=1187236800&en=b789c11a90c96573&ei=5070

  16. I like to refer to people who are fixated with protestations of doom as “millennial doomsters”. It’s a phrase I first started using back in the late 1990s when the “millennium bug” was going to bring civilization to its knees, as prophesied in numerous books and newspaper articles of that time often written by seemingly credible and serious-minded people.

    Bob, like a million people were using terms with millennial in them around that time to refer to people who overreact to potential disaster.

    Given events over the last five years or so I think it’s entirely justified that people should be highly sceptical about claims of catastrophic scenarios or politicians claiming that they will protect the public from Emmanuel Golstein-like bogeymen.

    Meh, I totally disagree. We only have once chance at making it through this century, we might as well be worrying our asses off.

    Many of the risks which you’ve outlined on this blog I think are legitimate concerns, although they’re only likely to become visible to the average man in the street a decade or more from now.

    Synthetic biology is a risk today (this is not just bioweapons), as well as AI (though somewhat less likely right now, it will be more serious in 5 years). Remember, even if the probability of doom is 1%, it’s a big enough deal to drop everything and focus only on the risk.

    Personally I don’t see artificial intelligence as an existential threat, unless you use a very strict and narrow definition as to what constitutes a human, but there are still plenty of other dangers which will need to be navigated through in the 21st century.

    You don’t see an AI that kills every last human being on Earth as a threat?

  17. I think Global Warming is marginally the most likely extinction threat. This is primarily in terms of societal regression and extinction by other causes. If you wanna be banal about it, the #1 risk the last person on Earth will die from is starvation. When NORAD accidently plugged in a USSR 1st-strike in their computers, would the risk have been from AI or Nuclear War?

    It wouldn’t surprise me if some other risk is really higher than global warming. The reason Global Warming rightfully accrues much more attention than other threats is that there are actions we can take right no to lesson the threat. Of other risks, what can we do?

    For synthetic biology risks, the WHO, the CDC, Health Canada, etc., will listen willingly to any ideas. There is no need to keep any inspirations locked among a futurist community. For AI threats, I haven’t seen anyone in a futurist community suggest antivirus software or monitoring supercomputer processes. World e-commerce and militaries would happily accpet any such suggestions. With AGI, leading AGI researchers erroneously believe semiconductor chips can be conscious (this and uploading are why I’ve mostly abandoned futurists), thus poisoning the real threat of software accidents with the fake threat of mind intentionality. more importantly, there is no timeline. Some 1970′s futurist made a prediction a 386 computer might think, and now everyone in the community thinks AGI (as opposed to an unstoppable AI virus) may magically turn conscious in the near-term.
    With MNT, I respect the social commentary and nanotechnology overviews of the CRN guys, but their timelines of MNT in 5-20 years or whatever, are delusional. Diamond surface chemistry is actively looking for actuators and other such parts. That fact that there is only 1/2 a research group (as opposed to an IPCC style scientifc body) reflect how hard, primitive and expensive the research is. There is no conspiracy; many govnerment programmes and uninversities would love to fund research proposals suggested by any futurists. There aren’t any!!
    Peronsally, I think the biggest synthetic biology and AI risks come from insufficient industrial espoinage protocols (how Russia got the nuke). If I was to learn of industrial espionage, I would study to be a security consultant or I would volunteer my ideas to bioreactor owners and microbiology labs. Talking amongst one’s community is fine, but then making the jump to claim ignorance of the mainstream is identical to there not being a mainstream is absurd.
    This is harsh criticism, but I invested time in futurist communities thinking I was addressing human extinction threats when the real search was for yes people and career funding sources. I don’t want others to make the same mistake.

    My primary advice to avoid UFAI is not to build it unless other threats are greater. And if the belief is that MNT is coming in 5 years, that renders all analysis false; it would necessitate converting 3/4 of the world’s workforce to building SPMs for manufacturing, a societal calamnity since SPMs can’t presently be used for manufacturing. There is extinction threat mitigatation in futurist discussions and ideas, but it is nothing approaching the value of IPCC.

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