Dale Carrico’s Criticisms of “Superlative Technology Discourse” Sunday, Sep 23 2007
transhumanism 4:19 pm
On his Amor Mundi blog, which I read regularly, Dale Carrico, a lecturer with the Department of Rhetoric at UC Berkeley, frequently rails against what he calls Superlative Technology discourse.
For instance, in a recent post, which begins by saying:
“I always cringe whenever some “inspirational” business huckster barks into the mic or at the dinner table about how “innovation,” “production,” “enterprise” or whatever slogan the Amway mindset has latched onto at the moment has “no limits, man!” so, you know, we should all presumably become dot-eyed marauding maniacs and “go for it!” and “take no prisoners!” or what have you.”
He goes on to criticize:
To say right away, I completely agree with him that the idea of “no limits” is immature and oversimplistic. There must always be limits, otherwise there is chaos. Not top-down instituted limits, but bottom-up and organically implemented limits.
To simplify, the three technologies he criticizes are:
- mind uploading
- molecular manufacturing
- superintelligence
To respond to each briefly: if functionalism holds, and computer speed, memory, and brain scanning resolution continue to improve, then the feasibility of mind uploading is highly likely. If functionalism does not hold, then mind uploading isn’t ruled out, but you might have to get more creative to implement it. (I.e., running a 10^11 neuron biological brain on a 10^20 neuron biological substrate with greater flexibility.) Functionalism is defined by Wikipedia as follows:
“Its core idea is that mental states (beliefs, desires, being in pain, etc.) are constituted solely by their functional role — that is, their causal relations to other mental states, sensory inputs, and behavioral outputs. Since mental states are identified by a functional role, they are said to be multiply realizable; in other words, they are able to be manifested in various systems, even perhaps computers, so long as the system performs the appropriate functions. While functionalism has its advantages, there have been several arguments against it, claiming that it is an insufficient account of the mind.”
Therefore, arguments against the feasibility of uploading should be directed against the philosophy of functionalism, not the supposed motivations of those who believe uploading is feasible, such as myself.
In other words, attack ideas, not people.
To address the concept of “angelic nanoabundance”, this is what I would call superabundance — the notion that, given reprogrammable factories that can self-replicate from simple raw materials and (preferably solar) energy input, great material abundance could be achieved quite quickly. Nanotechnology is not even necessarily required to build such a device. RepRap, a project whose motto is “Wealth without money”, is a nascent example of such exponential manufacturing capability.
If exponential factories are indeed possible, then practical superabundance is quite likely. A single 1-kg factory, self-replicating once per day, could produce approximately two billion kilograms worth of factory in just a month, which could then be used to produce housing, transportation devices, infrastructure, electronics, and so on, in similar quantities in just one production cycle. This technology, if distributed widely and regulated intelligently, has the potential to wipe out poverty once and for all. The humanitarian potential is enormous, and this was acknowledged by several speakers at the recent CRN conference, including Linda Hopper, the founder of WorldCare, a leading charity.
No designer logos involved. Molecular manufacturing, as well as less sophisticated manufacturing technologies, could facilitate great abundance, and also great danger. Think about mass producing missiles that cost practically nothing.
To address the third item, superintelligence — whenever anyone talks as if Friendly AI or any other form of superintelligence will facilitate an “optimal” outcome, they’re being ignorant. (This includes anyone with the Singularity Institute who has ever said such a thing, though I don’t believe I’ve ever heard it implied.) Life is too complex and multi-faceted for there to be a thoroughly optimal outcome for anything. Preferences constantly shift, and satisfying a complex web of interacting preferences in a dynamic world is a huge task for any intelligence.
There could indeed be robots, or cybernetic organisms, or artificial intelligences, created in the next century that have powers some humans might consider “god-like”. This is a natural consequence of the fact that biological neurons only operate at 200 Hz and synthetic neurons could operate much faster, and that robotic arms can theoretically operate much faster and with more agility than the human motor system. Coupled with exponential manufacturing, a cybernetic organisms capable of distributing its intelligence could make itself extremely capable of influencing the external world, even to the point of being able to wipe out the human race — or greatly improve our lot. People are free to take this scenario seriously or dismiss it as they like, but there is an ever-expanding dialogue among thinkers concerned that AI or augmented beings could indeed exceed human intelligence and capability in the 21st century. Once they exceed it, they will necessarily soar past it, fueled by a positive feedback loop of self-improvement.
No relation to Cold War politics. If we want to see a democratic future, then we have to construct superintelligence in such a way that it cares about what other people think. For instance, if you’re working on a Brain-Computer Interface project to create a superintelligent human being, use an altruistic human being instead of an egoist one.
To quote a further passage from Carrico… I’m trying to post it as concisely as possible, but the following is literally just two sentences:
“If the Superlative Technocentrics were actually right to imagine that billions of people now living will find themselves all too soon living in a future transformed by Friendly or Unfriendly post-biological intelligences, nanotechnological superabundance, biomedical immortality, or the like (and I do think they are far more likely to be wrong than right and I think this matters enormously), even granting them this, I think they are profoundly wrong to imagine that our best way to facilitate the best, least violent, most fair (or whatever) versions of these Superlative outcomes is to contemplate and prepare for the Superlative outcomes themselves, in the abstract, as these outcomes suggest themselves to us in our own impoverished vantage (an impoverishment exacerbated all the more by marginal and anti-democratic modes of Superlative deliberation). Such contemplation and preparation circumvents the ongoing and plural stakeholder contestation that will certainly articulate the unpredictable developmental forces and the dynamic developmental pathways along which such outcomes would actually “arrive” (were they to do so), ignores the practical, scientific, technical, pedagogical, regulatory, cultural knowledges arising out of our collective day to day responsiveness, competition, and collaboration in the plural presents from which no less plural futures will present themselves, that will not only shape but actively constitute our foresight and provide the living archive to which future generations or the communities in which we will ourselves later belong will make our collective recourse as we struggle to cope with these outcomes and their alternatives.”
My only response here is to say that I invite all stakeholders to contribute the technological, social, and regulatory-proposal dialogues ongoing in the relevant communities.
I strongly identify as what Dale would call a Superlative Technologist, in that I believe the advanced technology of the 21st century will facilitate sweeping, “superlative” outcomes, whether we want it or not. The only way I see to channel the coming flood is to acknowledge its likelihood and do our best to ensure that the initial conditions benefit all of humanity rather than some self-identified “elite” subset.
September 23rd, 2007 at 6:25 pm
(tries to read original article)
(gives up)
If this is typically what comes out of the Department of Rhetoric, I suggest that it be shut down. He is deliberately using big, fancy, unnecessary words to try and sound intelligent. The average word length of English text is 4.26 characters/word. The Wikipedia article on GR, a highly technical topic, has 5.4 characters/word. Your own article (excluding the quotes), which covers pretty much the same topics as his, has 5.41 characters/word. This guy uses 5.73 characters/word.
September 23rd, 2007 at 7:55 pm
I know it can be difficult, but try to focus on the substance of what he’s saying, rather than the style. The concerns that Dale poses (about Singularitarians in particular as well as Transhumanists in general) are things that others are probably thinking about, albeit presumably in less verbose language.
September 24th, 2007 at 2:01 am
I’m not even sorry. If that was an example of good rhetoric, that guy’s credibility has got to be shot to hell and gone.
I’ve seen much better from the men and women who post here. Much better. Even from those I disagree with.
But that’s just my opinion.
On the other hand, as an example of how others perceive the “Singularity Community,” it is a great example.
What you think you’re saying and what they are hearing are two entirely different things. You think you’re talking about science and technology and they’re hearing “Techno-Nerd Heaven’s Gate.”
It is a topic that is worthy of discussion.
September 24th, 2007 at 6:50 am
“if functionalism holds, then uploading must be possible”
Do you mean something like conceptually possible, or technically feasible? If the latter, how do you know?
September 24th, 2007 at 8:48 am
Conceptually possible only. The technically feasible part is based on the assumption that computing speed, memory, and brain scanning resolution continue to improve. Since all three values have been climbing exponentially in recent decades and show no signs of slowing down, I don’t consider the “technically feasible” part to be much of a problem, unless functionalism doesn’t hold. But you’re right, that’s an embedded assumption there.
I’ve changed the text accordingly, let me know if it looks OK now.
I think I put the original version down because I have a sneaking suspicion that almost all who doth protest too much over uploading don’t actually believe in functionalism.
September 24th, 2007 at 10:15 am
I basically posted this on his site.
Dale Carrico position and recommendations boil down to a socialist position. It is a position which does not look at the economics of problems. Some problems have a higher return on lower cost.
an example : Dale states: Instead of trying to advance SENS to push the limits of life extension, those who support it should promote universal healthcare etc… Those other things are not bad goals but are far more costly.
SENS can be advanced in the rounding error of those other health problems. Healthcare for those who are not covered under US private insurance already has hundreds of billions spent each year. SENS is making progress using a few million dollars. A fully funded SENS program might be $1 billion/year versus the $2 trillion healthcare system.
[So Dale is recommending not trying things with a lot of potential bang for the buck for flushing more money into an inadequate and bloated healthcare systems or other money/resource drain approaches]
Certain approaches to achieving goals are just resource inefficient. $2 trillion/year is spent on healthcare and the system is still woefully inadequate, then maybe the solution is not to spend more money on the current system.
Andy grove has suggested modifying the system to extend health services.
http://www.wired.com/medtech/health/news/2007/04/andygrove_healthcare_qanda
Grove breaks the problem of health care into three manageable chunks. Two have technological solutions — but not complex tech. Grove wants to keep the technology as simple as possible, a surprising idea for a man who put millions of transistors on a chip.
First: Keep elderly people at home as long as possible (an idea he calls “shift left”). Use high-tech gadgets to help them remember to take their medicine and monitor their health. In one year, if a quarter of the people now living in nursing homes went home, it would save more than $12 billion, Grove says.
Second, Grove advocates addressing the uninsured by building more “retail clinics” — basic health care centers in drugstores and other outlets that can take care of problems that are presently, and expensively, addressed in emergency rooms.
Lastly, unify medical records using the internet. In his vision, every patient carries a USB drive containing his or her medical records, which any doctor can download.
Society can achieve more with technology and systems by spending smarter and adjusting how things are done.
September 24th, 2007 at 10:26 am
Dale is railing against any superlative or outliers. He has his favorite solutions to problems, which already have a lot of people who have been working decades on those problems. These appoaches have worked poorly in the past. Things like arms control have had minimal effectiveness. Then he is asking for the 0.1% or less of people and resources to be diverted from trying approaches and solutions that are completely different for a surge into those old approaches.
1. I fail to see how diverting the people and resources from the small programs that he dislikes will help the bloated and old ones that he likes
2. If these approaches are wrong and doomed to fail, then why does it offend him so much ? These industries are smaller then the TV, movie and other entertainment industries. They are smaller than the military industrial complex. smaller than tobacco and alcohol. There are deeper pockets to go after and more destructive industries to divert. These industries are smaller and more benign than a lot of other segments of the economy.
September 24th, 2007 at 12:21 pm
“In other words, attack ideas, not people.”
That sounds good in theory, Michael. In practice, as you (should) know, even suggesting problems with functionalism is a blasphemy and a person who points out these problems is subjected to vicious personal attacks from “transhumanists” (mostly from those who have not heard about functionalism before) while the rest of the “community” watches this go on and nods. It’s quite clear that transhumanists can’t deal with problems with functionalism because they threaten fundamental ideas on which transhumanism is built. It’s much more convenient and easier to just file this topic under “dead horse,” and keep dreaming about imaginary futures based on the assumption that functionalism is a sufficient explanation.
September 24th, 2007 at 12:50 pm
Hi, Michael, thanks, as always, for the considerate and serious engagement with my writing on this. A few quick points:
You say I am criticizing certain “technologies,” which you list as “mind uploading, molecular manufacturing, [and] superintelligence,” but none of these are technologies at all, but very particular abstract idealizations with which you have come to personally identify. These are discourses of technology, not technologies, and while they function as ends to help organize your advocacy (whether productively or not is an open question), they also express underlying assumptions about technoscientific change (whether usefully or not is also an open question), and symptomize in their superlativity what seem to me deeper irrational passions that often accompany technology talk, worries about finitude, mortality, control, the force of chance in human lives, the demands of diversity, and so on.
I do cultural theory and teach rhetoric, I am interested in discourses — my style, my issues, my interests differ from those of many of your readers even if our shared technocentricity should make our differences more interesting than trivial it seems to me. The truth is that I take a deep measure of pleasure from the sound of words, enjoy the experience of savoring a person’s style of mind rather than always only processing it for propositional sense, and my writing reflects these interests as well as my interest in making a case. Those who would respond with hostility and panicky dismissal to the confrontation with even so modest a difference of thinking-style as this, should really take a deep look at the radical transformations they imagine they pine for so fervently. (That’s less a comment for you, Michael, as for some of your commenters, obviously.)
Be that as it may, from a discursive standpoint, my “criticisms” of the idealizations you list are actually quite different from one another — [1] uploading I consider to be pretty much straightforwardly incoherent conceptually, whether or not we share functionalist assumptions (I’m a materialist about mind and have no objection to the idea that consciousness might be incarnated on any number of different material substrates), since it requires the added assumption of inter-translatability between substrates about which I am strongly skeptical; [2] my chief critique about nanotechnology discourse is that so many of its advocates use it as a pretext to express their attitude that we might circumvent the impasse of stakeholder diversity and install a post-political abundance through improved technology, which seems to me dangerously wrongheaded in at least a dozen ways — but my criticisms are predominately political and not technical, even if I may be a little more skeptical about proximate robust Drextech than enthusiasts who might gather here would be; [3] since I champion peer-to-peer formations of collective problem solving and creative expressivity you might actually consider me a celebrant rather than critic of “superintelligence,” although, it is true that I don’t put a lot of stock in the notion of entitative AI, whether Friendly or not, on timescales that would justify the diversion of funds or attention from what seem to me more pressing problems, nor am I quite sure that I agree that those who talk of “superintelligence” have quite the handle on common or garden variety intelligence as they think they do as yet.
In my original piece I write that: “Superlative Technocentrics handwave from the palpable and urgent reality of ongoing and emerging disruptive technoscientific change to what is instead an essentially irrational and certainly pseudoscientific transcendentalizing talk of omni-predicated technologies delivering post-bodily ‘immortality,’ post-embodied ‘consciousness,’ post-economic ‘abundance,’ post-historical ’singularity,’ and so on…” But [that] even if I were to grant them more than the negligible plausibility of logical possibility (which is quite enough for most Superlative Technocentrics, and I’ll let the reader puzzle through the implications of that low bar given the force of True Belief it seems so often to underwrite), the fact remains that I still do not agree that Superlativity provides the best discursive lens through which we would best cope with the extraordinarily sweeping implications typically attributed to these outcomes by the Superlative Technocentrics themselves.”
Among other things, I point to what I describe as the “practical naivete of Superlative technodevelopmental accounts that rely on loose analogies (there are, to be blunt, differences that make a difference between human brains and computers, biological organisms and nanofactories, aging bodies and well-maintained mansions, stakeholder deliberation and the unilateral implementation of optimal outcomes deduced from ideal formulations), accounts that overestimate the state of our knowledge of the relevant technoscience, accounts that overemphasize the smooth function of technology in general, accounts that underestimate the role of social, cultural, and political factors on the vicissitudes of technoscientific change and its impacts, and accounts that treat complex dynamisms as linear processes and complex phenomena as simple monoliths.”
I think that focusing on these passages provides my response to some of your questions. As for your “invit[ation to] all stakeholders to contribute the technological, social, and regulatory-proposal dialogues ongoing in the relevant communities,” the point, surely, is to understand that these stakeholders are already testifying to their experiences and diverse desires in matters of ongoing technodevelopmental social struggle. It is not for either of us to “issue invitations” but to listen better and work to ensure that technoscientific change is more democratic and hence, more intelligent, more robust, and more representative. I actually think you probably agree with that — but I think there is an inherent anti-democratizing elitism embedded into Superlative Technology discourses that nudges you away from your express convictions on such political matters.
Finally, Michael writes that “technology of the 21st century will facilitate sweeping, ’superlative’ outcomes,” but my point in critiquing what I call Superlativity is not to dismiss the obvious likelihood of sweeping technoscientific changes (about which I write as much as he does).” He continues: “The only way I see to channel the coming flood is to acknowledge its likelihood and do our best to ensure that the initial conditions benefit all of humanity rather than some self-identified ‘elite’ subset.” I quite agree — but see this as a matter of championing open futures rather than optimal futures with which certain subcultures happen to identify here and now, and a matter of working to democratize technodevelopmental social struggle by connecting up with what I call the emerging technoprgressive mainstream rather than indulging in the self-congratulatory marginality of Superlativity.
Thanks again for an enjoyable exchange. I have responded at length on my own blog to the posts Brian Wang has included here, for those who are interested in pursuing those particular points. Best to all, d
September 24th, 2007 at 1:04 pm
“I’ve changed the text accordingly, let me know if it looks OK now.”
No idea. I’ve never really understood the technical requirements for uploading. Drexler-style nanotech would allow uploading, right? What about soft-machines style nanotech? What about neither? Could we still build good enough scanners and do the freeze/slice/scan thing, etc.?
September 24th, 2007 at 5:20 pm
It was the great rhetoritician Oswald Bates who once said the following:
“Unfortunately, we could not impregnate everyone. It is simply beyond our colonic threshold.” “I believe it was Plato…No, excuse me, I mean Play-Doh…who stuck to the wall when he said one must not put one’s transvestite in jeopardy if one is to become a cunning linguist”
We should all take these words to heart. Surely, such discourse embiggens us all!
September 24th, 2007 at 6:54 pm
Steven,
The technical requirements, to oversimplify, are: scanning tools, computers, and a designed enviroment for the upload. Anders Sandberg talked about some of these requirements at his Transvision 2007 talk. In conversation later on, he summarized the results of a one-day intensive seminar on uploading at the Future of Humanity Institute. Since I’m no expert in computing or computational biology, my estimates necessarily come from an “educated layman” perspective. In Eliezer’s “Staring” there is a summary of the Moravec transfer, but it doesn’t go into the detailed discussion that this topic really demands.
According to some transhumanist scientists I talked to recently that work with high-resolution scanners in biology (names upon request), brain scanning and computing technology is progressing so fast and reliably that uploading should come before AI, in their opinion.
Uploading could be possible with no molecular machines whatsoever, due to the freeze/slice/scan thing, yes. The idea of uploading is really not that complicated in the abstract(”freeze, slice, scan, simulate, embed in shared VR environment”) but the sheer quantity of required ops/sec, memory, scanning resolution, data bandwidth makes it seem a lot harder than doing AGI to, me.
September 25th, 2007 at 9:42 am
“inter-translatability between substrates about which I am strongly skeptical”
See http://www.acceleratingfuture.com/tom/?p=19.
September 26th, 2007 at 1:53 am
Hi Dale,
You’re welcome. I thank you for the enjoyable exchange as well.
Many people identify with the vision put forth by Eric Drexler. It’s a specific technological goal, not an abstract identification target.
The superlativity aspect isn’t symptomatic of whatever crazy pathology you try to project upon the advocates of these technologies. They fall out of the specs of the technologies themselves. For instance, nanofactories would benefit greatly from scaling laws, allowing them to have greater throughput than macroscale factories. I didn’t make up the fact that scaling laws are extremely beneficial to manufacturing because of “worries about finitude, mortality, control, the force of chance in human lives, the demands of diversity, and so on.” And you’re hinting that I and others do, which is ludicrous.
If molecular manufacturing is possible, it could be used to make a solid block of diamond 10 meters tall out of nothing but acetylene feedstock and solar energy.
Now, the above statement can be considered a technological statement, or it can be considered a science fictional BS statement based on some special psychological obsession I have with extremely large diamonds. A smart person looks at it as a technological claim, not a psychological obsession. But you seem to look at many technological claims about the feasibility or projected capabilities of future technologies as science fictional BS statements when they are actually about certain physical properties in the projection.
If you want to argue against the feasibility of a technology, discuss the technology. Don’t put its advocates down on the couch and try (poorly) to psychoanalyze them. I can imagine you in the days before nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles, saying that those who believe such a technology is possible are suffering from phallic fantasies derived from a hyper-masculine military-aggressive complex.
By looking at everything through the lens of cultural theory and rhetoric, you’re missing huge pieces of the puzzle. I do think the cultural theory and rhetoric lenses have a place, but to apply them indiscriminately to every piece of text that enters your field of vision leads inevitably to false inferences.
I am willing and able to look at technological changes through a social and cultural lens, but also an economics lens, an ethics lens, a scientific lens, a military lens, and more. I am not a technological determinist, although I do believe that inherent characteristics of a technology can strongly influence the way it is treated. Since I look at these changes through many different lenses, I am multi-faceted where you are being narrow.
You incorrectly identify discussions of highly advanced technologies with libertarian egoism, which to me, is the silliest thing in the world. Hundreds of scientists and futurists of all political orientations have discussed MNT and human-level AI.
Thanks for clarifying your views on uploading. If you are a functionalist, then you must believe intelligence can be characterized as a series of data flows. If so, these data flows can be abstracted, and then ported to different substrates. Given the necessary specs to run these data flows, the inter-translatibility between substrates follows. Can you describe for me where the breakdown occurs, if you are really a functionalist?
As for the nanotechnology issue, only a minority of advocates want to see it as being used to sweep away politics and democracy. This may have been a more predominant view in the mid-90s, where libertarianism was more in vogue due to the dot com boom, but now I think 90% of nanotechnology advocates are way more level-headed. But I believe you will continue to describe the situation as if the majority sees nanotech in the way that you fear, because it makes for interesting writing.
If you’re skeptical about AI, I understand. But because you are skeptical, your criticisms of discussions among people who accept the premise that AI is possible in the near term are necessarily biased. But if you shared their premise, would what they are talking about, hard takeoffs from human-equivalent AI to superintelligence in days or weeks, for instance, be all that implausible? You probably can’t answer that question, because you don’t, in fact, believe human-equivalent AI is possible in less than a century or something.
Maybe these technologies are inherently anti-democratizing themselves, because they make possible the consolidation of godlike power into single entities? So maybe my writing on the issues isn’t reflective of elitism myself, but reflects the actual likely properties of these advances?
If these technologies are inherently anti-democratizing, then it makes it all the more difficult to keep the world as democratic as possible in spite of that. Superlative technologies could be radically anti-democratizing, or radically democratizing. Ignoring their radical anti-democratizing potential makes it impossible to form strategies for keeping them open and democratic.
It’s also possible, in some circumstances, that the majority opinion is wrong, i.e., democracy breaks down and makes things worse. For instance, the book “Silent Spring” made a huge deal of DDT, which led to its being banned in hundreds of countries worldwide, subsequently leading to millions of deaths from malaria due to the lack of cheap mosquito repellent. To say that democracy (majority opinion) is correct at all times and under all circumstances is naive.
Cheers,
Michael
September 26th, 2007 at 9:38 am
Aaron Swartz recently wrote about Rachel Carson and DDT. (I haven’t read the article yet but intend to do so today.)
I’ve also thought about the different intellectual trajectories of a lot of transhumanists and Swartz. For Aaron political activism is becoming ever more important whereas (young) transhumanists concentrate on technology to the detriment of politics or — like Michael with his Upwing experiment — distance themselves from the Left-Right rift.
September 26th, 2007 at 12:45 pm
Thanks, Michael, for continuing this usually enjoyable and occasionally illuminating conversation!
You write: Many people identify with the vision put forth by Eric Drexler. It’s a specific technological goal, not an abstract identification target.
I don’t know how “abstract identification target” differs from what I criticize as the tendency of Superlative Technocentrics to identify with rather than simply advocate for particular idealized technodevelopmental outcomes. Sub(cult)ural Technocentricity — “transhumanist”-identification, so-called provides many examples — has anti-democratizing tendencies in my view (even in people who affirm democratic values), structural tendencies of the discourse that are not easily reducible to personal failings of particular adherents of the discourse, tendencies which may well inhere in this way of approaching technodevelopmental issues as such. You may disagree with this worry, but you should try to grasp the actual focus of my critique if you would really understand it.
It’s true that I make sport of some Superlative advocates, certainly — and it seems to me ridicule is often just what is wanted when one confronts the ridiculous — but the majority of my critique is not remotely as personalizing as you make it seem.
You say yourself that “Many people identify with the vision put forth by Eric Drexler.” And at the end of your original response to me you claimed also to “strongly identify as what Dale would call a Superlative Technologist.” I’ll admit that that looks to be a problem in my view.
Unless you mean by this to say that many find Drexler’s vision appealing (I do, for one.), or you mean to say that many agree with the majority of the claims he makes, including the variously controversial ones, in his many formulations about a world reshaped by what he means by nanotechnology (possibly I don’t, but I probably agree with more than you think I would). But finding a vision appealing or provisionally agreeing with an argument is not identification in my view.
Before you accuse me of quibbling here, let me say that politically what I want is an Open Future, above and beyond any particular technodevelopmental outcomes I might presently be advocating for as safer, more fair, more emancipatory, and so on. Sub(cult)ural futurologies — and there seems to me to be a very tight complementarity between Superlative Technocentrisms and Sub(cult)ural Futurisms for reasons we could get into if you want to pursue that angle later — substitute highly linear and monological technodevelopmental trajectories and targets for what more technoprogressive perspectives recognize instead as the ongoing and finally unpredictable technodevelopmental social struggle of free, ineradicably diverse stakeholders to distribute the costs, risks, and benefits of technoscientific change as fairly as they can by their lights.
There should be in my view no such thing as “the future” with which some “we” identifies and then fights to implement on an identity politics model. Mine would be a politics of open futurity and technodevelopmental advocacy for provisionally preferred outcomes in the context of more planetary democracy, rather than any politics of an idealized Future with which I identify in the present and mean to bulldoze my way through to with a few like-minded tribe-members.
Futures, like the present, properly belong to everybody, and will reflect the struggles of everybody, including the “theys” outside our various “we’s.” This is not a facile denial that one properly has goals and organizes to facilitate them, but an insistence that a democratizing technodevelopmental politics will fight above all for open futures, not “optimal futures” with which a parochial subculture presently identifies.
Enormous numbers of practical implications flow from sub(cult)ural futurisms, by the way, special vulnerabilities to hype, tendencies to naive technological determinism, reductionisms and other oversimplifications of developmental, dynamisms, disdain for developmental aspirations alien to your own, and so on.
There is also, of course, the unfortunate tendency of those who identify with particular futures rather than provisionally advocating for technodevelopmental outcomes to confuse disagreement with defamation. Almost everybody gets a bit defensive in argumentative contexts, me included, and my personal enjoyment of acerbic back-and-forth is more than usually provocative of this — but Sub(cult)ural Futurisms structurally exacerbate this problem beyond bound.
It would be easier to argue these points at this practical level, because the limitations of Superlative Technocentricities and Sub(cult)ural Futurisms are so clear in these areas, but I suspect that the political questions I began with instead are deeper and more troubling causes of the contention between us, and one sometimes just needs to take the bull by the horns and work one’s way through the murky stuff that matters.
The superlativity aspect isn’t symptomatic of whatever crazy pathology you try to project upon the advocates of these technologies.
Well, first, in some partisans for Superlativity I am quite sure that personal pathology is in play. Sorry, but I do. Ongoing and upcoming technodevelopmental transformation is deep, sweeping, intense, radical, unpredictable, deranging of custom and assumption, and easily as threatening as it is promising. Superlative Technology Discourses and the organizations that traffic in them are saturated with apocalyptic and transcendental imagery, unearned certainties and unexaminable pieties, littered with gurus and would-be priests, exactly as one would expect and exactly as endless critics have and will continue to point out.
You can pout and stamp your feet about it or try to understand why radical technodevelopmental discourse is likely to activate irrational passions and actually seek to address them (hint: identity politics may well be the worst imaginable mode of political organization possible under such circumstances in my view).
Second, I still don’t think you completely grasp the nature of discourse-analysis and rhetorical critique. No doubt you understand well how propositions (stated and implied) exhibit relations of logical entailment that can be analyzed to better understand the workings, strengths, and limitations of an argument.
But there are many other dimensions to which discourse is also susceptible of useful analysis. The overabundant majority of formulations make constant recourse to figures (metaphors and the like) to render abstractness more concrete, and there is a kind of entailment that obtains from the way we know the furniture of the world operates when it becomes part of the figurative picture an argument paints (when MLK calls justice a river it is because we know how rivers behave that we know he thinks justice is a powerful force, possibly irresistible, that it is natural, that it may seem violent, that it can be damned, diverted, and obstructed, and so on — but not all of these analogies may obtain and we often need to disentangle the conclusions one’s clarifying figures have earned from the ones the unearned ones, and sometimes claims or different metaphors appear that contradict this picture and these differences often connect us to deeper perplexities or problems in the argument itself).
There are also implications that can be disinterred from the etymological examination of a discourse’s definitive or recurring terms, or from an argument’s citation of conventional topoi (these are genres of topical debate the give-and-take within which can sometimes seem as ritualized as a minuet if you know what to look for), or from familiar framings of certain ideas that might bear a family resemblance to others, or to habits of association one can discern through acquainting oneself with idiolectical, dialectical idiosyncracies, jargon, habitual citations, customary associations, ritualized subcultural signaling and so on.
The intuitive force of certain ideas, concepts, formulations will derive as much from these figurative and citational practices as from logic, and when I try to discern these sorts of relations it is because I am trying to understand what makes a discourse tick, what makes it compelling to some (even if it remains, for precisely the same reasons, alienating to most), trying to locate its vulnerabilities the better to attack it when it is mobilized in the service of outcomes I disapprove of or the better to shore it up when it is mobilized in the service of outcomes I approve of. It’s as simple as that.
Third, it is simply the case that what we say or do means more in the world than we intend it to (just as it is also true that we rarely fully grasp the scope of our own intentions anyway — as evidenced by the fact that we will often retroactively assign to past conduct or utterances a different intention than the one we would have honestly reported at the time we initiated it), since actions always have unintended consequences and since utterances depend for their force on the contexts that are never completely understood. Constantly taking offense at my attribution to you of malign or pathological intentions whenever I try to understand the structural, logical, figurative, etymological, topological, tropological, citational, performative entailments of your discourse could not be more beside the point in most cases.
For instance, nanofactories would benefit greatly from scaling laws, allowing them to have greater throughput than macroscale factories. I didn’t make up the fact that scaling laws are extremely beneficial to manufacturing because of “worries about finitude, mortality, control, the force of chance in human lives, the demands of diversity, and so on.” And you’re hinting that I and others do, which is ludicrous.
You didn’t make up scaling laws, but the significance you attribute to your application of them to the very particular idealized outcome with which you identify (by your own admission) when you talk about “nanotechnology” is a choice that is articulated by factors that are scarcely given in the scaling laws themselves. I am glad to hear that you personally are not anxious about human finitude, mortality, self-control, chance, and diversity (even if such anxieties are rather extraordinarily widespread in my view), and that the irrational passions, the fears and fantasies of agency, that are often so activated by technology discourse and which seem almost embarrassingly conspicuous in their Superlative variations are not a factor in play in your own rhetoric. You will be happier for it.
But to say that it is ludicrous for me to discern the trace of these anxieties in the discourse more generally is, you will find, a hard sell. To reduce my discourse analyses to ad hominem attacks or armchair psychologizing as you also do is probably a fruitful avenue — even if it is a wrongheaded and superficial move, it is likely to seem plausible, especially to True Believers already sympathetic to your outlook.
If molecular manufacturing is possible, it could be used to make a solid block of diamond 10 meters tall out of nothing but acetylene feedstock and solar energy.
Now, the above statement can be considered a technological statement, or it can be considered a science fictional BS statement based on some special psychological obsession I have with extremely large diamonds. A smart person looks at it as a technological claim, not a psychological obsession.
This is an awfully disheartening response, Michael. First of all, there are infinitely many projected outcomes that, should they come to pass according to some particular scenario, would have practical implications compatible with our current understanding of the laws of physics. But it will not be these laws of physics that cause just that one projected outcome to be the one that captures your attention, or the popular imagination, or becomes a focus of collective dread or desire. These factors will indeed be psychological, cultural, social, and political as much as anything else. I try to talk about these questions in a way that is actually sensitive to that reality.
But you seem to look at many technological claims about the feasibility or projected capabilities of future technologies as science fictional BS statements when they are actually about certain physical properties in the projection.
Not all science fiction is BS. I am an avid reader of it, and an avid reader of much of the specific sf that preoccupies the transhumanist, singularitarian, and Superlative imaginaries in fact — a temperamental contiguity that makes you all a long-abiding source of fascination to me. It pays to remember that while sf sometimes likes to bill itself as an extrapoltive or projective literary genre, there is a widely held alternate view that the force and meaning of much of the greatest sf literature derives from the way it functions as a kind of allegorical commentary of contemporary problems. I think an enormous amount of presumably non-fictional futurological scenario making solicits the same kinds of identificatory and disidentificatory energies, functions as a kind of surrogate critique of the present in the form of a futural projection. I think contemporary cultural anxieties and political quandaries are regularly displaced onto the safer ground of projected futures.
This will be palpable to you in the example of Bioconservative discourse about clone armies, and designer super babies, and chimeras and the like, which are of course scarcely disguised reactionary hysteria about the political demands of younger generations, about the threat to their position and comfortable attitudes posed by racial and sexual diversity and so on. Superlative discourses play out similar anxieties, but these will be harder to see clearer for those who are on the inside.
If you want to argue against the feasibility of a technology, discuss the technology.
But as I have said over and over again, the feasibility of particular technodevelopmental scenarios isn’t the only or even always the primary thing that interests me. Nor do I honestly think that such feasibility is really what is going on all the time when technocentrics engage in what they themselves would think of as discussions of such “feasibility.” I am interested in what makes certain logically possible technodevelopmental outcomes personally and collectively compelling, and the connection of these compelling and provocative discourses to current progressive and technoprogressive politics and policy.
Again, my first aspiration is to facilitate open futures and the democratization of technodevelopmental social struggle. I do not identify even with those scenarios and outcomes that seem to me at present the most emancipatory ones, nor do I have any interest in or pin practical hopes in tribal identification with others who happen to agree with my assessments of which scenarios and outcomes are the most emancipatory ones. I think such identification incubates technocratic elitism in people of the left and the right, that it endorses assumptions conducive to the corporate-militarist status quo (the paradoxical entailment that leads me sometimes to speak of retro-futurism). Much of our disagreement really stems from differences of opinion, or possibly interest, at this level.
The fact is that consensual modification medical techniques, nanoscale manipulation, sophisticated malware, decentralizing and renewable energy and service provision, p2p networked formations are all part of the technodevelopmental terrain that preoccupies my own attention and in which I invest many of my own provisional emancipatory hopes. These preoccupations are very close to many of the ones that get pointlessly (and yes sometimes pathologically) transcendentalized, hyperbolized, oversimplified in Superlative Technocentrisms in my view. This frustrating but tantalizing proximity is, no doubt, the source of my fascination with these discourses and their advocates’s with mine. I do think that Superlative derangement of mainstreamable technoprogressive formulations is more than interestingly symptomatic or wrongheaded, though, but actively pernicious inasmuch as it substitutes less-democratizing for more-democratizing formulations and — again, I’ll say it, even knowing how you dislike this part of my critique — activates irrational passions at precisely the worst possible time, a time when democracy without technology will fail, and technology without democracy will destroy the world.
Don’t put its advocates down on the couch and try (poorly) to psychoanalyze them. I can imagine you in the days before nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles, saying that those who believe such a technology is possible are suffering from phallic fantasies derived from a hyper-masculine military-aggressive complex.
I am hoping you see now why this is a flabbergastingly facile and inapt understanding of my critique.
By looking at everything through the lens of cultural theory and rhetoric, you’re missing huge pieces of the puzzle.
I agree with you which is why I don’t do what you are accusing me of. But my interests are my interests, my training is my training, and I make no apologies for the fact that my analyses focus on different dimensions of these issues in a different language than is customary for your readers. I am quite sure that I have a contribution to make on my own terms — a contribution in areas that are enormously neglected among you — but I am also content that many of you will disagree with that, and some of you even decide that my different style and focus betokens my idiocy, insanity, superficiality, or fraudulence. This sort of thing goes with the territory.
I do think the cultural theory and rhetoric lenses have a place, but to apply them indiscriminately
?
to every piece of text that enters your field of vision leads inevitably to false inferences.
Well, I don’t, and my contribution is my contribution. But, the general point is a worthy one, and it might not hurt for me to take it to heart.
I am willing and able to look at technological changes through a social and cultural lens, but also an economics lens, an ethics lens, a scientific lens, a military lens, and more.
Michael, to be blunt, I don’t think you are exhibiting much self-awareness here.
I am not a technological determinist
This is something you said earlier on in this very response:
The superlativity aspect isn’t symptomatic of whatever crazy pathology you try to project upon the advocates of these technologies. They fall out of the specs of the technologies themselves.
I’m sorry, but there isn’t a dime thin difference between this attitude and that of technological determinism, which provides the context in which one must read your own continution of your protestation:
I am not a technological determinist,
although I do believe that inherent characteristics of a technology can strongly influence the way it is treated.
Can? Sure, who’s denying that? The social, cultural, and political forces that articulate technoscientific change (funding, invention, testing, publication, regulation, education, marketing, appropriation, distribution and so on) don’t enable technique to trump physics. But technological determinism is defined by the confusion or even insistent foregrounding of physics over these social, cultural, and political forces in one’s accounting of the vicissitudes of technoscientific change.
Since I look at these changes through many different lenses, I am multi-faceted where you are being narrow.
Whatever gets you through the night, guy.
You incorrectly identify discussions of highly advanced technologies with libertarian egoism, which to me, is the silliest thing in the world.
I correlate Sub(cult)ural and Superlative variations of Technology Discourse with the rhetorical idiosyncracies of neoliberal and American market libertarian rhetoric, and I correlate the justifications for elitism, the naturalization of market and corporatist assumption, the shared preoccupations with security, terror, disaster, the shared disdain for popular input, and any number of others features of Superlativity with the rhetoric through which the neoliberal project continues to market and justify itself. Sorry if you think that is silly. I’m quite sure I am right.
Hundreds of scientists and futurists of all political orientations have discussed MNT and human-level AI.
No shit, Sherlock. Irrelevant.
Thanks for clarifying your views on uploading. If you are a functionalist, then you must believe intelligence can be characterized as a series of data flows.
I said I was a materialist about mind and intelligence, and I daresay there are some characterizations of functionalism that I might ascribe to, but your definition here isn’t one I would agree to at all. Information is always instantiated on a material carrier, “data-flows” are non-negligibly correlated to their materialization, and one can easily grant that mind is material and not supernatural, that intelligence may well be incarnated on a pluralty of material substrates, while remaining skeptical that this materialized intelligence is translatable to a different one. I have no investment in being called a “functionalist” or not on whatever construal you have seized on, and I don’t think I need to have a position on that to explain my skepticism about the notion of mind uploading. Human intelligence is embodied, and is likely to be radically impoverished or distorted by disembodiment — and my point is a materialist and naturalist one, no souls or miracles required.
As for the nanotechnology issue, only a minority of advocates want to see it as being used to sweep away politics and democracy.
It is commonplace to invest the projected arrival of nanotechnology in something like its particular Drexlerian variation with the arrival of an abundance that will circumvent the impasse of stakeholder diversity and provide a technical fix for problems that look to me ineradicably social, cultural, and political. The point isn’t to call people totalitarians, but to delineate structural entailments. Perfectly nice, civic-minded, concerned people can nonetheless feel the appealing tug of anti-democratizing discourses without becoming conscious anti-democrats. If only it were so simple as you seem to think I think it is.
This may have been a more predominant view in the mid-90s, where libertarianism was more in vogue due to the dot com boom, but now I think 90% of nanotechnology advocates are way more level-headed.
That’s certainly true, although I think you wildly overestimate the percentage of explicitly libertopian technophiles who have learned any lessons at all from the last disastrous near-decade. Again, technocratic elitism, reductionism, naturalization of market and corporatist assumptions, and so on yield anti-democratizing effects and are especially helpful to the neoliberal project. That doesn’t mean that all the people who maintain the one discourse explicitly intend these effects (although I think more of them do than you may feel comfortable admitting), since I think too few people who maintain these discourses have given much thought to the sorts of connections I am talking about.
But I believe you will continue to describe the situation as if the majority sees nanotech in the way that you fear, because it makes for interesting writing.
Thanks, Doc, I hope you’ll forgive me if I don’t feel ready to send you a check to compensate your diagnostic efforts just yet.
If you’re skeptical about AI, I understand. But because you are skeptical, your criticisms of discussions among people who accept the premise that AI is possible in the near term are necessarily biased.
Well, that’s certainly convenient is you’re lucky enough not to be an AI skeptic then.
But if you shared their premise, would what they are talking about, hard takeoffs from human-equivalent AI to superintelligence in days or weeks, for instance, be all that implausible?
I think if this is something you lose sleep over you have wildly skewed priorities.
You probably can’t answer that question, because you don’t, in fact, believe human-equivalent AI is possible in less than a century or something.
Intelligence is a short-hand for a constellation of capacities. There are obviously devices that already surpass some of the normative human performance in some of the dimensions subsumed under the term intelligence. Collective intelligence, and especially peer-to-peer networked organizing, expressivity, and problem-solving may well constitute a mode of artificial superintelligence on your understanding, and it is one of my own preoccupations. If you are talking about dangerous malware and including replicative and recursive malware, I agree this is enormously important — already, here and now, not in a way that is particularly illuminated by projections or idealizations. If you are talking about entitative post-biological intelligence with intelligible intentions and deserving of rights, well, I think it’s not even on the radar screen, and a fixation on it as a presumably urgent political matter is a skewed preoccupation.
Maybe these technologies are inherently anti-democratizing themselves, because they make possible the consolidation of godlike power into single entities?
I don’t think technologies themselves are inherently anti-democratizing or emancipatory. It is the way we organize through and in the face of them, it is in our distribution of the costs, risks, and benefits associated with them that they become anti-democratizing or emancipatory forces. The point about instrumental assymmetry is important though — rather in the way that it is important to address the ways that mediation can facilitate killing through its apparent abstraction — but I still think the focus should not be “technological” per se, but an awareness that we must lesson the authority of elites and flatten hierarchical authoritarian structures we have tolerated too long lest they avail themselves opportunistically of such unprecedented technical capacities.
So maybe my writing on the issues isn’t reflective of elitism myself, but reflects the actual likely properties of these advances?
I really don’t think so.
If these technologies are inherently anti-democratizing, then it makes it all the more difficult to keep the world as democratic as possible in spite of that.
Don’t everybody cry all at once. Look, I simply disagree. Democracy is never easy but it is certainly possible, and emancipation is possible, and I won’t eagerly or “reluctantly” concede its demise in the face of technodevelopmental “inevitabilities.”
It’s also possible, in some circumstances, that the majority opinion is wrong, i.e., democracy breaks down and makes things worse.
Democracy doesn’t mean mob rule, it doesn’t mean majorities are always right (which is one of the reasons most notionally democratic societies also have rights and guarantees that are institutionally safeguarded from easy contestation). Democracy is just the idea that people should have a say in the public decisions that affect them. The stakeholders with whom we share the world testify to a diversity of aspirations and histories and perspectives and you need to pursuade them you’re right where you differ from them or compensate them in ways that are happy with where you manage to prevail over them. You can go on about how envious, or irrational, or unserious you think everybody is if that’s what happens next in this particular conversational dance-floor turn, but I have to say I think so-called elites are no less susceptible to irrationality and evil, and I’ll take my chances with democratic contestation, thank you very much. Whatever my annoyance with popular attitudes, I trust people more than profit-mongers or priests (whether of the conventional or scientistic varieties — and I say this as a staunch defender of consensus science).
For instance, the book “Silent Spring” made a huge deal of DDT, which led to its being banned in hundreds of countries worldwide, subsequently leading to millions of deaths from malaria due to the lack of cheap mosquito repellent. To say that democracy (majority opinion) is correct at all times and under all circumstances is naive.
Uh, okay. Rachel Carson is a hero, and she isn’t responsible for the deaths of millions of people due to malaria (as if only the delirious application of toxic DDT can save the interminably overexploited “underdeveloped” regions of the world), and you simply can’t say idiotic things like this on some occasions and then whine to me later about what a progressive democrat you are and how your feelings are hurt when I show that quite a lot of public technophilia gets spouted by reactionaries in the service of reactionary causes. This is an awful note to end and otherwise congenial exchange on, but, honestly, what odd things you do sometimes say. Forgive grammatical lapses and spelling error — I tossed this off and it’s too long to re-edit, since I have to get ready for tomorrow’s lectures. Best to you, d
September 26th, 2007 at 10:04 pm
The DDT/malaria situation is highly disputed.
It would not be out of hand “idiotic” to hold that view that the DDT ban cost lives. There are numerous sources which support that view. Scientists at the National Institute of Science hold the view that lives were lost.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DDT#Overall_effectiveness_of_DDT_against_malaria
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DDT#Criticism_of_restrictions_on_DDT_use
However, the fact that DDT is not formally banned in developing nations does not necessarily mean that those nations have the option to use it. Developing nations are typically heavily dependent on aid from agencies that made the aid contingent upon non-usage of DDT. The British Medical Journal of March 11, 2000, reports that the use of DDT in Mozambique “was stopped several decades ago, because 80% of the country’s health budget came from donor funds, and donors refused to allow the use of DDT.” [5] Many African nations have been dissuaded from to using DDT in part because the European Union has said that their agricultural exports may not be accepted if spraying was “widespread”
September 27th, 2007 at 1:58 am
Dale,
DDT is an effective and affordable mosquito repellent. Each year, malaria causes disease in approximately 650 million people and kills between one and three million. It causes a tremendous amount of human suffering.
Use of DDT can practically WIPE OUT malaria where it is used widely. We’re talking about preventing tens of millions of instances of malaria and saving tens of thousands of lives.
I have no problem with the environmental movement, especially the new “bright green” variety. But Silent Spring overblew the threat of DDT (the threat of it to humans particularly) and caused worldwide hysteria. DDT is NOT a carcinogen, as Carson claimed. Her mystical attribution of increased cancer incidence in humans (a trend accounted for by increases in lifespan) to synthetic chemicals has unleashed a wave of paranoia and psuedoscientific superstition that continues to this day. My dad literally thinks processed foods will give him cancer, for instance.
Carson’s hysteria led to the banning of DDT in many countries and a corresponding increase in cases of malaria. There are some replacements for DDT but none is nearly as effective.
There’s no question that DDT does have negative environmental effects: what we need to ask is whether the immense human suffering caused by forgoing its use is justified in light of its risks. At our current level of technology, it isn’t. Until there is a compound that can replace DDT and have benign environmental effects, we must use DDT when necessary. The people suffering from malaria in third world countries have no other choice.
No technophilia in the service of reactionary causes. I’m not reacting to anything — I support the environmentalist movement! Just not Silent Spring.
And yes, this is a perfectly reasonable position for a progressive Democrat to take.
Michael
September 27th, 2007 at 3:05 am
What’s sad here is that a supposed technophile wants to use 1940s technology to fight malaria. If you get your information from the World Health Organization rather than Lyndon LaRouche, you’d discover that Long-Lasting Insecticide treated Nets are generally more effective. DDT still has its place and its still used (despite all these claims that it is banned), but the right-wing’s obsessive belief that DDT is a magic bullet against malaria is hindering efforts to fight the disease.
September 27th, 2007 at 6:47 am
Tim Lambert talks sense on this DDT distraction (and it is a distraction), thank heavens, and strikes all the right notes. I’ve actually written (years ago) about the need for insecticide treated mosquito nets, after all, and in a way that managed not to demonize the hero Rachel Carson and her epochal book as “hysterical” — which very obviously it is not if you read it. DDT is not the only effective insecticide for use against malaria, certainly it is no panacaea, but, for all that, I don’t even think there is any inevitability at all that even Carson would have utterly disapproved a highly and intelligently regulated and circumscribed application of DDT as an element of the fight against planetary malaria. There are worlds of possibility between blanket bans and laissez-faire, you know. Read Al Gore’s introduction to a recent edition of Silent Spring for a sense of my own attitude toward the actual project of Carson’s book.
September 27th, 2007 at 7:09 am
It’s my impression that what most of the environmental movement wants (but isn’t getting) is exactly a blanket ban. Judging from your link, this includes Al Gore. Am I wrong?
September 27th, 2007 at 7:13 am
Also, Michael didn’t say the book was hysterical; he said it caused hysteria. (I have no idea whether his general claims are right or not, but I felt I should point this out.)
September 27th, 2007 at 9:31 am
Dale,
What specific aspects of the Drexler vision of nanotechnology are you saying are irrational and based on psychological problems and not a reasonable scientific and technological extrapolation ?
Big artificial gem quality diamonds. You do realize that 300 carat gem quality diamonds are possible using chemical vapor deposition ? The size limitation is more around the chamber size being used. 3 to 10 carat stones are made routinely.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chemical_vapor_deposition_of_diamond
You have indicated that there are clear and easy to argue limitations of Suplerative tech (which is molecular nanotechnology, AGI). Great then it would be easy for you to list them. This would be useful because you seem to be saying that there are limits that will prevent some or all of what is projected to no be possible.
Am I missing a lot of information that you have provided on real world complexities ? On your site you have made statements that
I translate as follows:
A lot of groups with insufficient power and money will be able combine to get everything that they could not get separately piecemeal:
1) Guaranteed minimum income [which is global transnational super-welfare]
2) Universal medical care including the best leading edge genetic treatments and other new and expensive goodies. Again for everyone on the planet in every country
3) planetary government and courts
This looks to me like the grand over simplification and ignoring of complexities that you accuse others of having.
Far less ambitious, less broad and less costly versions of 1 and 2 have been tried and it is clear that there has not been anything like a economically solvent application of 1 and 2. Even getting all the uninsured covered in the USA has been and continues to be a long battle. It will look nothing like 2 even for people in the US.
The world court thing has the US and other opting out.
Where is there any small scale evidence that these things are implementable and would have some kind of non-faith based result. It looks like a “if you build it, they will come”.
Perhaps something like X countries have more medical care and thus have more satisfied and non-violent populace. More medical care, more guaranteed income and broader judicial justice somehow correlate with more democracy, peace and justice. I have not seen where there is clear case for this.
Cuba has a lot of public health and I believe some level of guaranteed income but no democracy.
September 27th, 2007 at 10:21 am
Brian, it sounds to me like Dale is less attacking the physical possibility of “superlative” outcomes than suggesting that, due to social factors, these technologies will not be developed as rapidly as possible and will not be used to achieve Superlative outcomes. (”it will not be these laws of physics that cause just that one projected outcome…. These factors will indeed be psychological, cultural, social, and political as much as anything else.”) Of course the technological ability to do something does not mean it will be done. But, if I’m understanding Dale’s argument correctly, I think it fails to take into account the degree to which MNT and AGI can empower small groups to achieve Superlative goals on their own, largely independent of any “social, cultural, and political forces”.
September 27th, 2007 at 11:50 am
I think Dale is attacking both.
He dismisses large diamonds and many other physical possibilities and projections. He dismisses them not based on the technology but with questions on the psychological motivations of the projector without any view towards the plausability. He wants to have his cake of not getting into a technical debate while at the same time (eating it) claiming the correctness that the issue is settled in terms of a superlative projection and the superlative projector of being wrong and fanciful and naive.
Then he is attacking the applications and outcomes. I agree that some of applications and outcomes of technology are probably not going to happen or will happen in a different way. But you have to dig into each one to say how far off base and why something is. If there is a large and simple error then it would not take long to get to the specific flaw.
He simultaneously produces his own projections. Which I was trying to call out the specific flaw and erroneous simplifications and erroneous causal chains.
September 28th, 2007 at 9:40 am
You have indicated that there are clear and easy to argue limitations of Suplerative tech (which is molecular nanotechnology, AGI). Great then it would be easy for you to list them.
Once again, I have indicated that there are clear limitations of Superlative Tech discourses. There are no Superlative Techs to which I or you or anybody can point to list such limitations. Incredibly enough, you ask me to list what I mean by these limitations, right after you actually quote the list of these limitations of Superlative Technology Discourses I did provide and to which I referred: “vulnerabilities to hype, tendencies to naive technological determinism, reductionisms and other oversimplifications of developmental dynamisms, disdain for developmental aspirations alien to your own.”
Am I missing a lot of information that you have provided on real world complexities?
In the topsy-turvy world of Superlativity I will be smugly chastised for my incomprehension and inattention to “real world complexities” — because I am talking about the characteristic exaggerations, oversimplifications, distortions, and skewed priorities of actual technodevelopmental complexities facilitated by particular modes of discourse and their customary assumptions, metaphors, political associations, and so on — and chastised for this by people who mean by the “real world” their discussions of the logical feasibility of projected and idealized technodevelopmental outcomes like Drexlerian nanotechnological post-scarcity abundance, biomedical or even digital immortalization of human selves, the “urgent dilemma” of whether an entitative postbiological superintelligence is friendly or not.
Brian quotes other material I have written describing political campaigns and institutions that I champion. These are ideals, not predictions, and I would certainly never try to pretend that blue-skying about ideal institutions was some kind of engineer’s “feasibility study.” Neither can I claim to have high confidence that any of these pet outcomes will arrive in just the forms I am sketching here and now (in part just to make the point in the midst of our present distress that alternatives are possible), largely due to my awareness of the kinds of technodevelopmental complexities, uncertainties, unpredictable dynamisms I am pointing out to you all.
Brian accuses that “He [me] wants to have his cake of not getting into a technical debate while at the same time (eating it) claiming the correctness that the issue is settled in terms of a superlative projection and the superlative projector of being wrong and fanciful and naive.” It seems to me that I am engaging in a kind of technical debate, as it happens, just one from a disciplinary location you are unfamiliar with or perhaps uninterested in. If by technical debate you mean to designate only a much more circumscribed kind of discussion of logical and engineering feasibility, I hate to break it too you, but quite a lot of your own discussion fails to qualify as such — inasmuch, in my view, as it is symptomatically expressing the kinds of psychological, cultural, social, and political assumptions and preoccupations I keep pointing to under cover of its conspicuous “technicality.” Needless to say, many readers here will continue to disagree with me that this is the case.
September 28th, 2007 at 10:33 am
Of course the technological ability to do something does not mean it will be done. But, if I’m understanding Dale’s argument correctly, I think it fails to take into account the degree to which MNT and AGI can empower small groups to achieve Superlative goals on their own, largely independent of any “social, cultural, and political forces”.
Depending on just how “largely” you mean by “largely independent” here I probably do decisively disagree with the idea that particular radical idealized technodevelopmental outcomes are unilaterally achievable through the fervent exertions of marginal sub(cult)ures who fetishize these outcomes here and now for whatever reasons.
That said, I do think Nick has more of a handle on the sort of critique I am proposing than some others seem to do. As against those here who would accuse my critique of facile fraudulence he would probably accuse it of facile obviousness. (Please input requisite smiley for those who aren’t properly attuned to ruefully ironic writing styles.)
Strictly speaking Superlative goals are not achievable at all in my view, since they aspire at the transcendental in my own technical usage of the term when I engage in the Superlative Technological Discourse Critique that Michael was calling everybody’s attention to in the first place.
“Superlative” doesn’t mean for me “big changes” — there are few who would deny that ongoing technodevelopmental social struggle is causing and coping with big, sweeping, radical change. For me “superlative” means investing technology with a kind of autonomy for one thing (there is a wide literature elaborating this problem, as it happen), but also a kind of sublime significance. This tends
[1] to rely on an appeal to intuitions and iconography derived from or familiar to customary religiosity, and it is
[2] typically enlisted in the service of satisfying what are more customarily religious needs to overcome alienation, a quest for “deeper” meaning, a connection to ends more synoptic than those of parochial experience, and in ways that are
[3] prone in my view to activate irrational passions I would often associate with such religiosity as well, undercritical True Belief and groupthink, craving for authoritarian power or obedience to such, not to mention often being
[4] correlated, as religiosity so often is, to disdain of one’s body or one’s the diverse aspirations and alien lifeways of one’s fellows, and so on.
You suggest that I fail to take into account how AGI and MNT could empower small groups to achieve Superlative goals. As I mentioned in my response to Michael, I actually agree that discussions of the impact of relatively sudden shifts in the asymmetrical distribution of forces and capacities sometimes enabled by technodevelopmental change are certainly very important indeed. Ever more sophisticated malware and technical intervention at the nanoscale will likely yield effects of this kind many times in years to come…
But I don’t know that I agree that one’s capacity to talk sensibly about these effects is much helped by
[1] highly general, rarely particularly caveated, too often more logical than pragmatic discussions of the “possible” engineering feasibility of particular idealized non-proximate (and hence profoundly uncertain) outcomes
[2] invested nonetheless with radical projected properties that activate irrational hopes and fears without much connection to the demands of the actually-existing proximately-upcoming technodevelopmental terrain we are coping with here and now in ways that
[3] consistently and even systematically de-emphasize, denigrate, or altogether disavow the articulation of actual technodevelopmental social struggle by psychological, cultural, social factors and so on, and all this in ways that
[4] render the conclusions of the discourse highly suspect but too often also function
[5] to disallow or at any rate skew democratic deliberation on technodevelopmental questions (and sometimes, I fear, not so much accidentally as because of the anti-democratic sentiments of partisans of the discourse itself) — especially when these formulations attract popular attention or unduly influence policy-makers.
This is, I fear, what takes place too typically under the heading of discussions of “AGI” and “MNT.”
September 28th, 2007 at 11:17 am
Thanks for the clarification Dale. Clearly I am prone to misinterpreting the convoluted and verbose writing style that you use. Especially when you drop in relatively random slurs (Blah, blah, blah, foolish, yak, yak yak, idiotic, yadda yadda your smug).
I think the discourses would be improved if we spoke about the other individual has stated and presented, instead of mentioning overall perceived flaws with a class of people that you believe that person belongs.
An example, I could put you in the category of technically incompetent, ivory tower, wind-bags. That class of person tends to make useless criticism of subjects that have superficial understanding, have a tendency towards arrogance, and just to like to hear themselves talk and who feel that they should be the one to set the rules of how a “discourse” should be conducted. Of course, I would not be referring to you, just the tendency of a class of people which you share some traits. Not necessarily those traits.
That might be a tactic similar to what someone of that kind of person would use. They would imply that the people they were talking to had those traits but can weasle around so that there is always an out when someone tries to indicate that my position is full of BS.
Anyway back to trying to understand the specifics of your position:
Can you list the specific kinds of technodevelopmental complexities that you are aware of that you think would prevent abundance, biomedical or even digital
immortalization of human selves.
I get that you saying that infinite is fantasy and stupid to talk about. I tend to look at specific trends in development and actual development capabilities and the impact of specific new projects that are or should be funded.
Where on the scales do you think the problems with talking about the goals of more abundance and longer lifespans kicks in ?
Do you think those issues prevent significant life extension. Increasing maximum human lifespan to 130 years, 150 years, 200 years or 300 years or 600 years etc…? Is it increasing average life expectancy to different levels ?
Is it the maximum human life span could be significantly increased but that it might not help societal problems or will make societal problems worse or create new societal problems ?
Do you think the complexities and issues would prevent increasing global GDP growth from 5% now to 10%. How about to 15%. How about 30%?
Do you think the complexities and issues would prevent the creation of 3D fabrication machines similar to desktop printers but with grain sizes down to
1 micron,
500 nanometers,
250 nanometers,
100 nanometers,
50 nanometers,
20 nanometers,
10 nanometers,
5 nanometers,
2 nanometers,
1 nanometer,
0.5 nanometers
0.2 nanometers
Do you think the issues effect the realization of reel to reel production of flat computers and solar cells which could greatly reduce costs and increase production. Is the reel to reel concept flawed ? How about the rate of production from the reels ?
1 meter/s
2 meter/s
5 meter/s
10 meter/s
20 meter/s
40 meter/s
80 meter/s
200 m/s
etc…
Are there other aspects related to increased abundance that you have an issue with.
Is it building more energy infrastructure ?
Is it environmental effects from increased production ?
Distribution issues ?
The fact that increased material abundance does not have to help solve any societal problem and can make existing problems worse ?
September 28th, 2007 at 12:13 pm
(I’m going to respond on Dale’s blog because this thread has gotten way too long.)
September 28th, 2007 at 12:24 pm
Brian, I am sorry you find me frustrating and verbose and all the rest. I suppose I should be thankful that not everybody does. As with Michael I think you are not quite grasping the difference between a therapeutic diagnosis of a person and a symptomatic interpretation of a discourse (again, as with Michael, part of the blame surely lies in the fact that I write in an acerbic style that I enjoy too much to relinquish).
You will find, I’m afraid, that the superficial windbags like me with whom you share the world will have a non-negligible impact on your accomplishment of the goals you claim to desire, and that hence you may as well try to understand where we are coming from on our terms — especially those few of us who struggle to articulate as clearly as we can just what it is in what you say that we find worrisome. An alternate strategy would be to endorse actively anti-democratic views, I suppose, but I suspect this course will frustrate your ends incomparably more still.
You continue to try to get me to start number crunching about your (to me) fanciful scenarios in the preferred manner to which you are better accustomed, as if this makes you a more hardboiled realist than me. There are, of course, plenty of people here who will cheerfully indulge in this sort of thing with you. My critique is lodged at a different level than this, and I don’t have much of interest to say about (nor would I be much interested in saying things about) the engineering specifications of idealized Superlative outcomes that preoccupy you.
No amount of detail offered up at that level will enable you to circumvent the factors that I am highlighting and which will shape outcomes quite as much as the projected engineering questions that interest you, no amount of detail offered up at that level will help you understand the factors that I am highlighting nor prepare you to cope with them in the service of your desired ends such as they are, and no amount of detail offered up at that level will fool those who do not share your outlook into not noticing just how much of your apparently “technical” discourse is functioning as a surrogate and skewed address of the factors that I am highlighting in explicit and considered terms.
You can take umbrage at this and dismiss it as name-calling, you can stick your nose up at it and dismiss it as ignorant or muddled or even fraudulent, you can bulldoze ahead in sublime indifference to these sorts of critiques altogether. But none of this will involve actually understanding my critique on its own terms, or taking into account how it might speak to your ability to facilitate some measure of the technodevelopmental outcomes you claim to desire.
September 28th, 2007 at 1:59 pm
Dale,
Don’t be a stick in the mud about my grouping you in with some other people. You like your acerbic style, so I am just playing around with it.
I am not taking umbrage at your name-calling because I do not see myself committing any of the sins that you are complaining about. Also, to take umbrage I would have to attach some importance to it, which I don’t yet. I was trying to give you the chance to make a clear case. I am just trying to take some time to tease out what the hell you are really talking about.
I have made and have been making technological and other predictions /scenarios.
http://advancednano.blogspot.com/2007/09/reviewing-some-of-my-predictions-no.html
I feel that since the predictions in the near term are turning out to be correct, then I do not have an unrealistic view of technological progression. This is also why I don’t think that your claims that I have fanciful scenarios is a claim that sticks, if I have been right about develops over the last few years. If the scenarios are fanciful then why are they happening ? I also don’t think that you have actaully looked at any of my scenarios in detail. So you are making the fanciful claim without actually seen what you are claiming.
You say that you have criticism.
I am failing to understand what they are.
I was trying to have you clarify them.
There is some vague things about
- complexity of the world / society
- complexity and unpredictability of technological develop
- warnings about hyping etc…
Something somewhat less vague but which are strawmen:
- infinite abundance is impossible (I have not predicted that is possible)
- immortality is impossible
I do not see what factors have been highlighted. If there have been factors highlighted then you have encoded and disguised your highlighting masterfully.
I was trying to see what the substance of your critique was. I am not sure what the target was of the critique other than the style of discourse on technology. But my style of discourse is my style. Just like you have a verbose, convoluted and acerbic style of discourse. I have one with some predictions and technical details. So since it is permitted for your style of discourse to be used (even if it bothers other people and limits your audience), then there is no problem for me to continue with my style. You have chosen not to understand my discussion on its own terms, so you should not have a problem with other people ignoring the discussion on your terms.
September 28th, 2007 at 3:09 pm
btw: I wanted to congratulate you, Dale, on the ability of your style of discourse to embody one of the the dictionary definitions of your department. (Dept of Rhetoric)
Defn: Rhetoric
Language that is elaborate, pretentious, insincere, or intellectually vacuous:
http://www.thefreedictionary.com/rhetoric
I think that the aspiring to the other definition might be better.
The art or study of using language effectively and persuasively
If you were more effective at clearly communicating what you were saying then it might be more persuasive.
September 28th, 2007 at 3:23 pm
Brian doesn’t like me.
September 28th, 2007 at 4:41 pm
I agree with this, which is why I go to all the trouble of starting these discussions.
September 28th, 2007 at 6:52 pm
It is not a matter of liking you or not, Mr. Carrico. It is not even a matter of how any of us “feel” about you.
When examining your arguments and stated positions, there is no there, there.
Whatever you think about anyone’s individual presentation of the material, if you are not willing to examine the facts or to accept the facts at face value, you
have no position to defend, (vacuous), and you add no value
to the discussion other than argumentum ad nauseam. Most of your rhetoric is composed of nothing more than one logical fallacy piled upon yet another.
In fact, the statement that he doesn’t like you and therefore will not accept your argument is
itself a logical fallacy. It is not a logical or rational defense of your position. It is quite irrational, actually. (Tit for Tat w/forgiveness)
September 29th, 2007 at 8:45 am
Yes, Michael, I know, and it’s appreciated. These exchanges can be frustrating, I know, but they have their moments of illumination and provocation, and they are, at any rate, real. I’m putting this thread to bed for my part but leave the rest to the hounds to bray over. The exchange, one hopes, will continue elsewhere. Best to you all, d
September 29th, 2007 at 10:30 pm
What about us useless eaters - those of us not-nearly-as-useful-as-earthworms? What does the future hold for us? Don’t we get to overpopulate and overconsume, marry our cousins, abuse our kids, hold superstitious beliefs, get obese, drink and smoke ourselves to early graves anymore, without contributing one single useful thought to the collective record of humanity?
Elitism is realism. To accept reality as it is is to become an elitist.
September 29th, 2007 at 10:40 pm
I read many thick books by very smart men. I understand every single sentence without struggling. Dale’s …mmmm… I don’t.
Many very smart men vs Dale:
1-0
Granted, Dale has his lucid moments, but, on the average, I think this is abuse of language.
October 1st, 2007 at 9:25 am
I do not believe that Dale will have a non-neglible impact. I think that others who are opposed to MNT or AGI might have some impact and have had some impact (Nano business alliance hijacked the NNI after the initial Foresight presentations and then prevented the 5% of NNI funding of scientific study of the feasibility of MNT.
Because Dale would not put any there into his talk, that was why I knew it was all word games and shifted over to playing around with Dale’s technique’s of verbal frustration. It was all about the “discourse”, a game of who could frustrate the other more. His comments on his site showed that he could not handle having someone consciously choose to ignore or misunderstand what he wrote repeatedly and his abandonment of the thread shows that he has lost his trolling amusement.
He and some like him lay out the “prize” that if you can decipher or get them on your side that it will help advance a project that you have or support.
I think the focus should be on growing the existing small base of support and activating more of it with more technical and financial capabilities.
The similar path becomes what those who want space development to happen are doing. There was and are compelling visions. The government programs (Europe, USA, China, Japan, Russia) are mostly meandering despite $30+ billion being spent worldwide each year. A lot but not all of the most interesting work is with entrepreneurs who made their fortunes elsewhere, the various prize focused competitions and with more private projects that are developing necessary enabling technology (trialpha energy fusion, bussard fusion).
October 1st, 2007 at 11:53 am
Bryan, this is far from a game to me. Your perspective here looks awfully parochial and hence self-defeating — since people with whom you share the world whose concerns differ from yours in the ways mine seem to do will repay your obliviousness by endlessly frustrating your ends, not out of spite, but as a matter of course.
“Accident of Evolution,” you write: “Elitism is realism. To accept reality as it is is to become an elitist.” The future belongs to those who can inspire the next generation. Elitist, by definition, has a limited appeal, especially in eras that are reasonably well-informed, as you might well expect planetary p2p formations to facilitate. Also: “I read many thick books by very smart men. I understand every single sentence without struggling. Dale’s …mmmm… I don’t.” This attitude seems to me anti-intellectual and parochial in the extreme, although I’m sure you regard it as a sign of the opposite. Theory, poetry, technoscience writing are often extraordinarily demanding, it seems to me, indeed the eventual value of such writing often seems to correspond to the difficulty they impose. Of course, there is a lot of obfuscatory garbage out there, there’s no denying it, but if you think enlightenment never demands a struggle you’ll end up with a hardening of the orthodoxies before you know it.
For superior soopergeniuses some of you guys really do seem awfully dim sometimes.
Again, I can’t promise to check back on this thread since the conversation has moved on to other places. I’m cheerfully participating in the ramifying branches of the debate in other places, not running for the escape hatch as some might want to imply.
Best to all, and thanks again to Michael for directing his readers to my Superlative Critique. I’ve benefited from the conversation very much.
October 1st, 2007 at 9:39 pm
You’re welcome. Now everyone, let’s move on for now…