Overview: Chemical Weapons Convention Thursday, Oct 25 2007 

(Source: Wikipedia)

Full name: Convention on the Prohibition of the Development, Production, Stockpiling and Use of Chemical Weapons and on their Destruction.

Short name: Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC)
Open for signature: January 13, 1993
Entered into force: April 29, 1997
Member states: 182
Map of member states:

(States in light blue are full participants but still have stockpiles in various stages of disposal.)

Notable non-signatories include Angola, North Korea, Egypt, Iraq, Lebanon, Somalia, and Syria.

Summary:

Article I. General Obligations
Article II. Definitions and Criteria
Article III. Declarations
Article IV. Chemical Weapons
Article V. Chemical Weapons Production Facilities
Article VI. Activities Not Prohibited under this Convention
Article VII. National Implementation Measures
Article VIII. The Organization
Article IX. Consultations, Cooperation and Fact-Finding
Article X. Assistance and Protection against Chemical Weapons
Article XI. Economic and Technological Development
Article XII. Measures to Redress a Situation and to Ensure Compliance
Article XIII. Relation to Other International Agreements
Article XIV. Settlement of Disputes
Article XV. Amendments
Article XVI. Duration and Withdrawal
Article XVII. Status of the Annexes
Article XVIII. Signature
Article XIX. Ratification
Article XX. Accession
Article XXI. Entry into Force
Article XXII. Reservations
Article XXIII. Depositary
Article XXIV. Authentic Texts

Full text available here.

The “Superlativity Critique” Propagates Thursday, Oct 25 2007 

Richard Jones, a professor of physics and the Senior Strategic Advisor for Nanotechnology for the UK’s Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council — a role informally known as “UK Nano-Champion” — has adopted Berkeley rhetoric professor Dale Carrico’s criticism of so-called superlative technology discourse. In a recent blog post, he responded to an article following on the heels of a TV series hosted by Michio Kaku, titled “We will have the power of gods”. Here is an extract with choice pieces, selected by Carrico:

~~~~

“Superlative technology discourse… starts with an emerging technology with interesting and potentially important consequences, like nanotechnology, or artificial intelligence, or the medical advances that are making (slow) progress combating the diseases of aging. The discussion leaps ahead of the issues that such technologies might give rise to at the present and in the near future, and goes straight on to a discussion of the most radical projections of these technologies. The fact that the plausibility of these radical projections may be highly contested is by-passed by a curious foreshortening….

[T]his renders irrelevant any thought that the future trajectory of technologies should be the subject of any democratic discussion or influence, and it distorts and corrupts discussions of the consequences of technologies in the here and now. It’s also unhealthy that these “superlative” technology outcomes are championed by self-identified groups — such as transhumanists and singularitarians — with a strong, pre-existing attachment to a particular desired outcome - an attachment which defines these groups’ very identity. It’s difficult to see how the judgements of members of these groups can fail to be influenced by the biases of group-think and wishful thinking….

The difficulty that this situation leaves us in is made clear in [an] article by Alfred Nordmann — “We are asked to believe incredible things, we are offered intellectually engaging and aesthetically appealing stories of technical progress, the boundaries between science and science fiction are blurred, and even as we look to the scientists themselves, we see cautious and daring claims, reluctant and self- declared experts, and the scientific community itself at a loss to assert standards of credibility.” This seems to summarise nicely what we should expect from Michio Kaku’s forthcoming series, “Visions of the future”. That the program should take this form is perhaps inevitable; the more extreme the vision, the easier it is to sell to a TV commissioning editor…

Have we, as Kaku claims, “unlocked the secrets of matter”? On the contrary, there are vast areas of science — areas directly relevant to the technologies under discussion — in which we have barely begun to understand the issues, let alone solve the problems. Claims like this exemplify the triumphalist, but facile, reductionism that is the major currency of so much science popularisation. And Kaku’s claim that soon “we will have the power of gods” may be intoxicating, but it doesn’t prepare us for the hard work we’ll need to do to solve the problems we face right now.

~~~~

I agree, from first exposure, that the Kaku piece is unnecessarily triumphalist, facile, and reductionist. Science popularization often sweeps away the manifold complexities involved in developing, deploying, and regulating major technologies for the sake of simplicity and shortening attention spans. Articles titled “we will have the power of gods” are incredibly unhelpful, even if they might be absolutely correct in the long term. Think about it: many of our powers today would be considered godlike from the perspective of the Middle Ages. When technology is applied to changing the human form, this effect will become much more pronounced.

But this sensationalistic talk prevents more cautious people from taking the arguments seriously.

I think Jones and Carrico are both wrong that transhumanists have a “strong, pre-existing attachment to a particular desired outcome”. A minority of transhumanists maybe, but not a majority. What transhumanists want is for humanity to enjoy healthier, longer lives and higher standards of living provided by safe, cheap, personalized products. The precise path pursued to achieve these outcomes is a secondary question, albeit an important one.

Many transhumanists are concerned that current fund dispersion schemes (the National Nanotechnology Initiative for example) fail to invest significantly in higher-payoff research avenues such as mechanosynthesis. The leading universities, and other entrenched incumbents have a monopoly on research dollars. They know they will get the funds anyway, so they are given great flexibility in how “nanotechnology” is defined, leading to more incremental research and less bold, cutting-edge research holding the possibility of major breakthroughs. This is counter-productive.

I first read Eric Drexler’s Engines of Creation when I was 13. Admittedly, I became very excited about Drexler’s vision of molecular manufacturing creating rocket engines made of pure diamond and the like. But as I got older, I had to discard my juvenile attachment to particular technological outcomes, and embrace fuzzy probability distributions and uncertain research initiatives skewing distributions as a matter of percentages. The mission is to make the world a better place to live: if mechanosynthesis or artificial intelligence turn out to be extremely difficult or unworkable, we’d have to put our focus towards other projects, like:

brain-computer interfacing
deployment of solar power satellites
studies in proteomics and epigenetics
psychopharmacology and nootropics
progressively better fabbers
“smart” materials and bio-inspired materials
wearable devices and cybernetic implants

…and dozens or hundreds more. And many of us already do. See, transhumanism is not a preoccupation with a narrow range of specific technological outcomes. It looks at the entire picture of emerging technologies, including those already embraced by the mainstream. If one path doesn’t work, we try another. The overall trend in support of enhancement technologies is already practically ubiquitous in research labs worldwide.

If any transhumanists do have specific attachments to particular desired outcome, I suggest they drop them — now. The transhumanist identity should not be defined by a yearning for such outcomes. It is defined by a desire to use technology to open up a much wider space of morphological diversity than experienced today. We want to create millions of Homo sapiens spinoffs which people can mix and match at will. This will make democracy stronger by introducing new agents immune to human-characteristic cognitive biases, among other things.

Overview: Biological Weapons Convention Wednesday, Oct 24 2007 

(Source: Wikipedia)

Full name: Convention on the Prohibition of the Development, Production and Stockpiling of Bacteriological (Biological) and Toxin Weapons and on their Destruction

Short name: Biological Weapons Convention (BWC)
Open for signature: April 10, 1972
Entered into force: March 26, 1975
Member states: 158
Map of member states:

Summary:

Article I. Never under any circumstances to acquire or retain biological weapons.
Article II. To destroy or divert to peaceful purposes biological weapons and associated resources prior to joining.
Article III. Not to transfer, or in any way assist, encourage or induce anyone else to acquire or retain biological weapons.
Article IV. To take any national measures necessary to implement the provisions of the BWC domestically.
Article V. To consult bilaterally and multilaterally to solve any problems with the implementation of the BWC.
Article VI. To request the UN Security Council to investigate alleged breaches of the BWC and to comply with its subsequent decisions.
Article VII. To assist States which have been exposed to a danger as a result of a violation of the BWC.
Article X. To do all of the above in a way that encourages the peaceful uses of biological science and technology.

Full text available here.

Full Transcript of Minsky Interview at Transvision 2007 Wednesday, Oct 24 2007 

Some elitist-sounding comments by Marvin Minsky in a New Scientist article recently have caused some concern. Danielle Egan, the author of the article, posted the full transcript of her interview with Minsky in an effort to defend her choice of words and demonstrate that she wasn’t trying to misrepresent him. Some transhumanists disagreed with her. Here is Egan’s email in defense of herself, along with the full transcript, with the quoted parts bolded:

Danielle Egan here.

I’m here to stand behind the published quotes by Minsky. The transcript of our interview is copied below. You can judge for yourselves whether I took Minsky’s comments out of context or not.

(And also whether publishing any of his additional info would have softened or hardened Minsky’s published quotes.)

While I would have loved to write 5,000 words about the conference and included my interviews with all of the people I met there (and some I didn’t even get to meet), I had to deal with a 1,200 word assignment that was eventually reduced to just under 900 words by the editor. Even the published quotes from the few people included in the piece would have been much better understood if their entire interviews had been published, along with a whole lot of extra background notes. But that wasn’t possible based on the assignment and while I lament the death of long-form journalism, I think covering the basics, including the obvious polarities within the H+ movement and the not-so-warm-fuzzy comments of certain “visionary” H+ers, is much better than nothing. And in fact, I gave a lot more ink to the quotes and info around proposed democratic and ethical goals within the movement than anything else.

I agree with Sky that I didn’t capture the spirit of the conference. I think my first draft did that, but it was over 2,000 words long. And since the published draft is kicking up controversy, not to mention various attempts to discredit me, a longer more nuanced piece would probably just have pissed of MORE people. At any rate, few people enjoy seeing their whole life history, their philosophies, etc reduced to a handful of quotes, actions and a basic physical description. I’ve noticed that people are sometimes shocked by their own words, just as we can be shocked by our reflection in the mirror, thinking, ‘I don’t really look like that!’ One of our many human quirks.

But don’t transhumanists pride themselves in being shock-proof? Or do they reserve that for thinking long, hard and honestly about the future, not present day life?

Before I leave you with Minsky’s transcript, thanks again to all of you for talking to me about H+. I am hoping to do larger articles on the topic and while I have my own personal biases - journalists are flawed just like scientists! - I will do my best not to let them creep in. Journalists are supposed to sit on the fence, so by that I partly mean that I will try my best not to fall hard for you people and your grand ideas, which is a difficult task since I find many H+ views and goals fascinating, challenging, seductive and pragmatic. I’m all for the “mainstream” getting into this discussion.

Truncated interview with Minsky, over lunch, day one of the conference. Prior to this point of the interview Minsky discussed narrow AI, religion, soccer, steroids, wrestling and warned me against recreational running, telling me I only have so many steps to take in my life and perhaps shouldn’t waste them on running. (Editorial: I’ve since given up running. See what I mean about Stockholm syndrome!)

Q: The majority of Americans believe in god so they think they’re going to live forever. And most of us use technology, so it’s strange to me that transhumanism seems so radical to them.

Minsky: I once did a sort of experiment. I was at a meeting at which the subject came up and I asked a big audience, ‘How many of you would like to live for 200 years?’ Most said no. This was a bunch of non-specialized citizens who’d come to a meeting with Philip Morris for some purpose I can’t remember. But very few of them. I asked them why and they said, ‘Well it would be boring.’ Some said, ‘Well if you were infirm and handicapped it would be unpleasant.’ I said, ‘Well suppose you were healthy to the last minute? In other words, you stay 30 years old for 200 years.’ They said, it would still be boring after a while. So then the next chance I got, I had a room full of scientists and I said the same thing. They all said, ‘Yes.’ I said, ‘Why?’ ‘Because I have some hard problems that will take that long to solve.’ So what I concluded is that ordinary citizens wouldn’t know what to do with eternal life. The masses don’t have any clear-cut goals or purpose. That’s why the world is so dangerous. People will go to war because the worst that could happen is they get killed and what difference does that make. It’s not as though it were important. They don’t like getting killed but they don’t have any reason not to get killed. As far as I can tell, only scientists have problems that are hard but that they see some hope of solving. Religious people want to obey god or something and I don’t think that’s a very strong motive – and they want to avoid being punished. But they don’t have positive goals, like that. There’s a quote from WH Auden: We’re all on earth to do good, but what I can’t figure out is what the others are here for. Maybe these are people who have ambitions and interests that distinguishes them from the rest.

Q: I meet scientists with all sorts of goals. Some of them don’t seem very scientific to me, or there are ulterior motives for the science. But some of the transhumanists I’ve met have very ethical goals and some seem quite conservative, cautious; used to be boy scouts.

Minsky: What does that mean, to be a boy scout?

Q: Learned survival methods as a child, and now are sort of boy scouts about things like nanotech.

Minsky: I know what a boy scout is. I have a merit badge for tying knots. I don’t know what you mean by boy scouts about nanotechnology.

Q: Caution and concern about the negative implications of these techs. They want nanotech, but want it used in a wise, ethical way.

Minsky: The problem is combining those qualities in the same person. The reason we have politicians is to prevent bad things from happening. It doesn’t make sense to ask a scientist to worry about the bad effects of their discoveries, because they’re no better at that than anyone else. Scientists are not particularly good at social policy.

Q: But shouldn’t they have an ethical responsibility for their inventions?

Minsky: No they shouldn’t have an ethical responsibility for their inventions. They should be able to do what they want. You shouldn’t have to ask them to have the same values as other people. Because then you won’t get them. They’ll make stupid decisions and not work on important things, because they see possible dangers. What you need is a separation of powers. It doesn’t make any sense to have the same person do both. Is this a new idea to you? Many people find it shocking.

Q: But this is also a problem in the scientific community.

Minsky: No, it is not. It is not a problem. Science is like a big animal that grows over thousands of years. It’s different than all other intellectual things because it has critical thinking and you win a prize if you show that an article of faith is right. It’s a very important thing and cultures without science are to me are like parasites that survive for their own good. Religion doesn’t do good for other people. It’s an organization that tries to convert people into its way of thinking. Science doesn’t do that. Every scientist will give his arm to show that the others are wrong. No priest would give his arm to show that the Pope is wrong. So science is different from other things because you have to check your beliefs. The general beliefs are probably crazy. Like birth control. Religious people say I want as many people as possible and I don’t care if it fucks up the environment.

Q: But you can make the same argument for some scientists. There are scientists with bias, like in the medical community, ties to drug companies, ego.

Minsky: You see them as being morally defective? That doesn’t matter because they get caught. Everyone who engages in scientific fraud gets caught. Maybe they get away with it for a while. I’m not saying that there aren’t lots of people who are corrupt and make money by selling something like homeopathic drugs. It’s a 40 billion dollar industry. It’s not science. It’s just another set of religious-like beliefs. A person is not a scientist or an atheist. A person is a very complicated thing. We’re talking about scientists as a set of humans who are rather fragile but important because it’s about taking a belief and testing it. That doesn’t mean you convince everyone that you’re right.

Q: But as you said, the primary goal of science is to tackle an issue the other way around. By attempting to prove a theory is wrong. But too much of the time, they try to prove that something is right.

Minsky: I think you’re confusing science with some idea that each scientist is a perfect thing, but they’re just people, they’re not particularly ethical and they’re not even particularly admirable. That’s the reason you shouldn’t ask scientists to be responsible for their discoveries. That’s the job of people that have other sets of values that are usually wrong anyway. For example we have a very high priority of reducing infant mortality. To focus on what you don’t like about particular scientists is missing – what’s causing wars and things? Not the scientists, it’s the true believers. Of course we need more wars because the true believers are making the population grow out of bounds and they’re making more money with war and they want their converts to kill the converts of other religions. Generally the ethics on the surface of most systems of belief or cultures are competitive and that’s a big mess. I feel that science is dying out in the US while we’re fighting these – well if you look at the Bush people, they’re trying to make this in to a religious country.

Q: But increasingly scientists are also beholden to their funders and their funders include the government and corporations.

Minsky: That’s the great thing about science. It doesn’t matter, if your theory is false, your reputation goes.

Q: But you can be marginalized if you don’t produce the results the person or people paying for your research want.

Minsky: Yes, like being paid to show that smoking is good for you. Wasn’t there a recent one that showed ex-smokers are delayed in their Alzheimer’s. It’s funny to look at our culture, because our heroes are actors and what’s an actor? A professional liar?

~~~

There is no question that Minsky’s quotes in this article have set back transhumanism’s efforts to dispel its elitist associations for at least a year. The question is: who’s to blame, Minsky, Egan, or the editors of New Scientist?

By the way, I believe that everyone could enjoy a really long life (not just scientists), and I hope you do too.

Emotional Investment Tuesday, Oct 23 2007 

Should transhumanists be emotionally invested in particular technologies, such as molecular manufacturing, which could radically accelerate the transhumanist project?

My answer: for fun, sure. When serious, no. Transhumanists should always have a part of themselves serving as a detached futurist. Even though accurate prediction of the future is absolutely impossible, it makes sense to estimate probability distributions — we all have them, the difference is whether we explicitly acknowledge their presence and at least try to make them logically self-consistent.

For instance, right now I believe there is an over 85% chance that, barring catastrophic disaster, AI surpassing the human level will be developed by the end of this century.

Do I have an emotional investment in this prediction? No. What do I desire? Radical life extension, intelligence enhancement, permanent elimination of disease and war, and even the abolition of suffering in all sentient life. But this does not require artificial intelligence. I believe AI could accelerate these goals, but they are not dependent on it, so there is little personal emotional investment.

Most transhumanist goals are achievable through a variety of different technological paths. Still, even if none of these paths work, human life is not all that terrible — at least if you live in a developed country. Even if no transhumanist aims are accomplished this century, we could spend our time trying to bring the rest of the world up to the Western level of material prosperity, and that would be a worthy endeavor unto itself.

We have to make the best of what we have. No one person can map out the entire technological solution space using pure imagination, otherwise they could invent all the devices themselves. In lieu of perfect knowledge, we are stuck with probabilities.

But the probabilities are worth formulating. I see more extreme technological changes in the upcoming century than an average person, and these have policy implications in the here and now. I would like to see more attention being paid to what would be called “low probability, high impact” events. The politics we play in human society tends to make us focus on the immediate present, not the longer-term future.

In the end, futurism is a personal thing. In the media, a lot of futurism is about wearing the beliefs as clothes — signalling mechanisms to get across to a target market. Beliefs about the future can be biased through various social forces. You have to ask yourself, “what do I believe here personally, if no one else is looking?” Only then are you being honest about your predictions, and can compare them usefully to other models.

Cascio: the Nanofactory Ecosystem Tuesday, Oct 23 2007 

The Center for Responsible Nanotechnology’s (CRN) new Director of Impacts Analysis, Jamais Cascio, has submitted an article to Nanotech Now for a column usually provided by CRN’s Executive Director, Mike Treder. Cascio is taking on more responsibility for the organization as CRN Director of Research Chris Phoenix goes on sabbatical. Meanwhile, yours truly is supporting them from the wings as a member of the CRN Global Task Force.

Alongside the Foresight Institute, CRN is one of the only organizations preparing in advance for the arrival of molecular manufacturing, the bottom-up fabrication of macroscale products from individual atoms. This is molecular nanotechnology, nanoscale machines building nanoscale machines, rather than the more mundane (but still important) nanotechnology and nanoscale sciences most popular today.

In this month’s column, Cascio asks, “What sort of “ecosystem” would spring up around nanofactories?”

He looks at designs, distribution methods for nanofactories, distribution methods for products, distribution methods for “toner”, physical reliability, physical safety, health and safety evaluations, knowledgeable users, ways to avoid abuse, political support, economic support, and market acceptance. Here are the main points paraphrased, with comments:

Design: a fair amount of abstraction can be expected in nanofactory design codes, just as in software programming there is the object-oriented level and the machine code level. Denying users access to the machine code level offers a way to prevent the design and fabrication of dangerous products. I agree with this.

Distribution for nanofactories: This section is just open-ended questions. (”Will nanofactories be available on the shelves of Target or Wal-Mart?”) For a clue, I look to the paper “Economic Impact of the Personal Nanofactory” by Robert Freitas, which argues that nanofactories will likely debut at a cost of around $4000, to create maximum profit while ensuring there will still be many buyers. This is a high enough price that we may expect a specialized dealership for nanofactories, as we have with cars today, but low enough that sales at Wal-Mart is also conceivable. As with practically any commercial product today, we can expect a nanofactory to be available via the Internet. Unless nanofactory distribution is heavily regulated by governments, we can expect distribution to be near-universal, with an adoption curve steeper than what we saw with the personal computer. This is because nanofactories would be even more useful than computers, but with a similar debut price. An iPod-like adoption curve is not implausible.

(This cool image was included in the article.)

Distribution methods for products: Cascio speculates that if nanofactories are not individually owned, then “make on demand” systems could emerge whereby someone specifies a desired product and has it shipped overnight using a company like DHL. Although a scheme like this might make nanofactory regulation easier by restricting availability, I doubt it would last longer than a couple years at most, because the demand for individual ownership would be enormous. The first specialized nanofactories may exist in labs, used by scientists on a time-share basis, like today’s most powerful supercomputers and telescopes.

Distribution methods for toner: if nanofactories are individually owned, how will the “toner” be supplied? Will existing supply chains be sufficient? Well, for a diamondoid nanofactory the toner would probably be acetylene, which is made using limestone (available in practically unlimited quantities) and coal (available in large quantities). Acetylene is flammable, just like butane, and distribution would probably involve steel tanks, like the butane tanks we see dotting the roofs in places like Mexico. As society begins to transition from conventional products to diamondoid products, we can expect an industry to develop around the processing and distribution of acetylene. Because of the importance and ubiquity that nanofactories will achieve, acetylene canisters of all sizes are likely to be made available. If small nanofactories, say 10 gram pocket-sized nanofactories, become developed, then we can expect acetylene canisters of similar size to be sold at convenience stores. Instead of buying a pair of sunglasses at the gas station, you might buy a canister of acetylene at a gas station and fabricate the sunglasses in your preferred style using a small nanofactory.

Physical reliability: if nanofactories and nanoproducts don’t work perfectly, how will a support network emerge to address it? I would expect a patchwork of freelancers, a la early computer repair specialists, which may or may not aggregate into a unified company or alliance as time goes on. Because the moving parts are so incredibly small and complex, it may be difficult for repair workers to address the physical layer of the nanofactory architecture, being left to deal with only the software. Cascio speculates that if something goes wrong with a nanofactory, it would just be easier to print out a new one. This is true, but I am skeptical that business and government would allow nanofactories to print out other nanofactories without a substantial payment being involved (it would cause huge economic disruption otherwise), but perhaps a warrantee will make it possible for users to print out another nanofactory for free if their original is corrupted.

Physical safety: would it be possible to guarantee the safety of nanoproducts? With answer is: only with serious regulations built in at the hardware level. I am almost finished with a paper on this topic. Basically, to preserve safety, large portions of the design space must be prohibited.

Health and safety evaluations: who is ultimately responsible for regulation? What is self-policing doesn’t work? These are important questions. In May 2004 I wrote a short paper that argued we actually have to create augmented human beings (perhaps through a brain-computer interface or neuroengineering project) to take on such a challenging task. But, I realize now that policy makers would never take such a suggestion seriously, so it makes sense to come up with a solution that could actually be implemented with humans. The only one I can really come up with is global governance, or some other form of hegemony. Otherwise, arms race dynamics are likely to emerge. Imagine a company with more than one CEO, each giving contradicting orders. That is the state of the world today. Enforcing complex uniform standards globally will require a central decision-making agency, perhaps something like a world treaty organization, but with actual bite. Because of the unlikelihood of any such organization being created prior to the introduction of nanofactories, it would not surprise me if the first organization or nation to develop nanofactory technology then goes on to use it to install itself as the Leading Force, the world power that sets the rules. Yes, this scenario has an unfortunate comic book feel to it, but I do think there is a fair chance it will actually occur.

Knowledgeable users: how difficult will it be to use a nanofactory? My guess is that most will have a difficulty of operation somewhere between a toaster and a computer, with more custom-tunable and complicated models available for the geeks among us.

Ways to avoid abuse: How will abuse be avoided? As I mentioned above, I think a Leading Force will be necessary to set the rules and avoid endless disputes and bickering. If one does not emerge right away, it will leave a tremendous vacuum, one which all the major players will be interested in filling. If the United States or the United Nations does not fill the gap, some other entity will. I expect nanofactory technology to be quickly accompanied by peer-to-peer transparency of a significant degree, simply because it will become so easy to mass-produce and distribute small cameras and sensors (”smart dust”), unless there are draconian laws against it. Although this will let governments spy on practically everybody, it will also let citizens spy on the government to a certain degree, hopefully leaving a dynamic balance.

Political support: what kind of political support will be generated? What alliances will make nanofactories more palatable to incumbent institutions? My guess would be, the usual: lobbies, letters to Congress, workers unions, think tanks, etc. I haven’t thought much about the second question because I’m not part of an incumbent institution.

Economic support: nanofactories may radically reduce the cost of many products, but human-to-human services will retain the same price, barring sophisticated artificial intelligences. How will this effect the economy? This question deserves a post of its own, but my crystal ball says: the impact will be chaotic. Traditional product prices may be preserved initially due to a lack of open product designs, but soon a large portfolio of open designs is likely to emerge and sweep out many of the old players. They won’t go out without a fight. The comparative value of human beings and knowledge will continue to increase. As I read somewhere in a nanotechnology book (don’t remember which), prostitution, which was among the first lines of work, may also be one of the last!

Market acceptance:
maybe people won’t want to acquire nanofactories in the first place? I consider this possibility very unlikely. Nanofactories would simply offer too many performance and cost advantages to turn down.

Thanks to Jamais Cascio for getting our brains moving about open questions in the future of nanofactory technology.

Paris Hilton Signing Up for Cryonics Friday, Oct 19 2007 

No joke! This is big news. Paris Hilton is going to be cryopreserved. I never thought I’d be posting about Hilton on Accelerating Future, but there you go. This news is via Eliezer Yudkowsky on Overcoming Bias, who broke it as follows:

“Anyone not signed up for cryonics has now lost the right to make fun of Paris Hilton, because no matter what else she does wrong, and what else you do right, all of it together can’t outweigh the life consequences of that one little decision.

Congratulations, Paris. I look forward to meeting you someday.”

I totally agree. You can make fun of Ms. Hilton all you want, but if in 100 years you’re rotting in the ground, and she has her frozen cells repaired and remetabolized by nanomedicine, guess who’s laughing now?

Here is the article from FemaleFirst:

“Paris Hilton wants to be frozen with her beloved pets when she dies.

The hotel heiress is keen to live forever and has invested a large sum of money in the world’s biggest suspended animation cemetery, Cryonics Institute.

She wants her body to be preserved and then brought back to life, along with her favourite pets, including her famous Chihuahua Tinkerbell and new mutt, Yorkshire Terrier Cinderella.

‘The Simple Life’ star said: “It’s so cool. Almost all the cells in the body are still alive when death is pronounced.

“And if you’re immediately cooled, you can be perfectly preserved.

“My life could be extended by hundreds and thousands of years.”

Earlier this week, Paris revealed her partying lifestyle left her feeling “empty inside”.

The 26-year-old blonde - who spent 23 days in jail for driving offences in June - is now determined to turn her life around and do worthy things instead of being seen falling out of nightclubs.

Paris - who is planning a visit to Rwanda - said: “Before, my life was about having fun, going to parties - it was a fantasy. But when I had time to reflect, I felt empty inside. I want to leave a mark on the world.”

Whether she’s serious or not, I don’t know, but signing up for cryonics isn’t the sort of PR stunt to do for popular support — so it was obviously her personal decision. I myself associate signing up with cryonics with long-term thinking about the future of humanity, but maybe some see it as selfishness. Your mileage may vary.

In the comments, Carl Shulman pointed out that she might have gotten the idea from a magician she worked with on The Simple Life. They have signed up for different companies, however — Hilton with Cryonics Institute, and the magician with American Cryonics.

Immortalism marches forward, now with Paris Hilton’s support. Who’s signing up next?

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