Accelerating Future Transhumanism, AI, nanotech, the Singularity, and extinction risk.


Yellowstone Caldera Rising

The Yellowstone caldera has moved upwards nine inches over the last three years, a record rate since geologists first began taking measurements in the 1920s. This is the result of a Los Angeles-sized blob of magma that recently rose up into the chamber only six miles below the surface. The Yellowstone caldera is an ancient supervolcano. Last time it erupted, 642,000 years ago, it ejected 1,000 cubic kilometers of magma into the air. If this happened in today's world, it would kill millions and cover most of the United States in a layer of ash at least a centimeter thick. The lighter ash would rise up into the atmosphere, initiating a volcanic winter and ruining crops worldwide.

Calderas rise and fall worldwide all the time without erupting. But the activity in Yellowstone is still concerning. Like a reckless teenager in a sports car, it seems as if our civilization laughs off the possibility of its own demise like a complete joke. Yet the right sort of event, and we could be knocked flat. Instead of waiting for a disaster to happen, we should prepare in advance to minimize its probability.

I would like to see scientists do a study on the feasibility of using nuclear weapons to initiate a supervolcano eruption. If it looks feasible, park security in Yellowstone should be increased.

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  1. It really would be the best place, hopefully noticable amounts of digging would be required first though.

  2. What _could_ we do to prepare for the equivalent of a nuclear winter? The only thing I can think of is to get into space on a large scale, to get some of humanity’s eggs out of this basket before the supervolcano blows, the next Dinosaur Killer falls out of the dark, the Slate Wiper Virus evolves or the sun flickers by a few PPM. All of the arguments against exploring space assume an unchanging world.

  3. So, identify some scientists who might competently manage that and give them a call. (Or make some nominations and I’ll make the calls.)

  4. Making it widely known that a nuke could set off a supervolcano could be more dangerous than ignoring the problem.

  5. On second thought, I agree with Nick. I prefer not to have a scientist actually look into this.

  6. How big an explosion would open up this yellowstone caldera? Say, three to five big trucks stuffed with high explosives, half buried in some remote place in yellowstone, at designated places with the help of a friendly geologist? Can be done in a weekend, with minimal manpower and financing.

    It’s an almost as fascinating idea as doing the same at the Teide slopes on Tenerife. A well-aimed detonation at that site might trigger a tsunami that would hurl a tsunami westward.

    There is still a lot of space for mischief in the world.

  7. Amazing info!!!! Just tell me how big the caldera is by miles,
    Your friend

  8. Super volcano’s are defined by the amount of their discharge, which is much greater in scale than a typical volcano. So much so, that if one went off in the next few years, it wouldn’t mean the end for millions, but rather for billions. Notradamus predicted a calamity for 12/21/2012 just like the Mayans, the I Ching, Merlin, a renassaince witch, a Dakota Chief, the Hopi tribe and most recently by a WebBot program. What they all predict is fire in the sky causing great destruction and deaths, followed by famine. In particular Notradamus predicted it would occur at the 48 parllel, which is the grain belt of the world. The US grain belt feeds most of the World. If those crops were covered by deep layers of ash, there would be a food shortage worldwide that would cause widespread famine.

    I’m convinced that if there is any validity to the dire predictions of 2012, it will occur by way of the Yellowstone Caldera in a supervalcanic eruption. The other possible mega disasters have a very little probability of occuring, such as a meteor or gamma ray burst. Conversely, the Y.C. last erupted 640,000 years ago and has in the past erupted on average every 600,000 years. So, by average it is 40,000 years overdue.

    What would happen besides famine? The world would be shrouded in dust that would block the Sun, cooling the planet considerably for several, if not 10’s of years. Places that get very little snow would have huge snow drifts afoot. Houses not designed to insulate against extreme cold would be ice boxes. The energy needed to combat that kind of cold would be astronomical in scale. People would burn everything available.

    How many people would survive? Probably a very small percentage, something like 2-3% at most, maybe less. Keep in mind, for a person to survive that period would require storage of food for a minimum of 2-3 years. Do you have any idea how much food that is? Now multiply that amount by 6.5 billion people. You now see the dilemma.

    Phones, houses, cars, buildings, highways, planes, computers, all contribute to a modern construct that supports within our psyche a fortress of invincibility. Its on a mass scale worldwide. It has design, shape, substance, funcitionality, pertinance, flow, regularity, and appears for all intensive purposes to be a civilization that is substantial and therefore seemingly impervious to outside forces. Yet that perspective is entirely false.

    Fact is, humankind uses the planet at the whim of outside forces. As long as the spectrum of those forces remains within a certain range of livibility, then we presume that it always will.

    Live for today, for tomorrow may not be what you expect.

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