Kurzweil Press Release has Incorrect Date Sunday, Feb 17 2008
AI 3:16 pm
A press release mentioning Ray Kurzweil is making the rounds on all the science sites now. It goes like this:
“BOSTON, Feb. 17 (UPI) — A U.S. computer expert predicts computers will have the same intellectual capacity as humans by 2020.
Ray Kurzweil was one of 18 people chosen by the American Association for the Advancement of Science to speak on future technological challenges, The Independent reported. He said that in the future artificial intelligence will advance far beyond human intelligence.
“Three-dimensional, molecular computing will provide the hardware for human-level ‘strong artificial intelligence’ by the 2020s,” he said. “The more important software insights will be gained in part from the reverse engineering of the human brain, a process well under way. Already, two dozen regions of the human brain have been modeled and simulated.”
Kurzweil’s predictions are based on the assumption that the “law of accelerating returns” will continue in the development of artificial intelligence. Computer chip power has doubled every two years for the past half-century as a function of the accelerating return principal.”
The only problem — this is totally incorrect! Kurzweil predicts human-level AI by 2029, not 2020. How did they let this one slip out there?
Interestingly enough, Kurzweil’s predictions are stealing the spotlight of news coverage of this AAAS event. Here is a BBC article with the correct date, floating around at the same time as the press releases on the contradictory 2020 date.
The ubiquitous coverage of Kurzweil’s predictions in the last few days is obvious evidence that futurists predicting artificial general intelligence within the next 20 or so years are anything but marginal.
As for me, I’m not sure when AI will come around, but it’s better to assume sooner, and be prepared, than to assume later, and be caught blindsided.
Update: Thank you to USA Today for linking this post.
“As for me, I’m not sure when AI will come around, but it’s better to assume sooner, and be prepared, than to assume later, and be caught blindsided.”
I’m not so sure about this anymore. It depends on who’s doing the preparing, and what the preparations are.
Assuming something vastly unpredictable will happen sooner than you think tells you nothing about what that thing actually is, or how best to prepare for it. It’s like believing Bostrom’s simulation argument: So we’re living in a simulation. So? since we can’t begin to know what our simulator’s motives are, it suggests no clear change in our course of action.
In the meantime, there are ways to prepare that are harmful, especially if the prospective events never occur. We have a president now who rules by scaring people into getting his way under threat of terrorism that fails to appear, and uses that power and wealth to enrich those close to him. If we’re not careful, visions of AGI could scare us right out of other things we really, really need now.
Are we prepared for terrorism, or just “pre-scared”? How about climate change? Advanced software?
The good news is that the conversation is going ‘mainstream.’
The bad news for transhumanists and ‘futurists’ is…that the conversation is going ‘mainstream.’ As a group, you’ll no longer control the meme/narrative. You can only influence it.
Yes, the squeaky wheel gets the grease, but the wheel that squeaks too much…also gets left behind/replaced.
[i.e. marginalized]
Of course, I remember when Transhumaists – and many in the scientific
community – accused (squeak) Kurzweil of ‘selling out’ (squeak) when he took his research, (squeak) patents and ideas (squeak) and started a business.
What is up with all the trolls?
“As for me, I’m not sure when AI will come around, but it’s better to assume sooner, and be prepared, than to assume later, and be caught blindsided.”
Kurzweil tends to be overconfident and utopian in a lot of his predictions, so I tend not to trust his judgement on these things. However, it is always good to be prepared for the possibility that AI could be only a few years down the road.
Why is the media picking up this news story now anyway? This is a fairly old prediction by kurzweil. He has been making this type of prediction for years. To me it seems like it’s just recycled news, so what gives?
Anything that can should be automated.
AGI is the ultimate automator.
Meanwhile, what are you doing to automate your life/computing experience?