The Singularity is Just About Smarter than Human Intelligence

I.J. Good gave one of the first articulations of the Singularity concept in 1960 in his essay “Speculations Concerning the First Ultraintelligent Machine”. He said:

“Let an ultraintelligent machine be defined as a machine that can far surpass all the intellectual activities of any man however clever. Since the design of machines is one of these intellectual activities, an ultraintelligent machine could design even better machines; there would then unquestionably be an “intelligence explosion,” and the intelligence of man would be left far behind. Thus the first ultraintelligent machine is the last invention that man need ever make.”

Then, in 1990, Vinge defined the Singularity as:

“the imminent creation by technology of entities with greater than human intelligence”

Nothing about genetics. Nothing about life extension. Nothing about nanotechnology. Nothing about robotics. Nothing about wearable computing. Only smarter than human intelligence. Nothing else. Technology only enters into the picture because it’s the only thing that could actually lead to the creation of smarter than human intelligence, and the assumed means by which this intelligence would influence the world. The involvement of …

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The Uncertain Future — Simple AI Self-Improvement Models

There is substantial disagreement between myself and 99.5% of other futurists that talk about human-level AI. The 99.5% talk about human-level AI as if it would be useful like computers are useful, allowing us to have automated secretaries and insurance agents and travel planners and logistics experts. They see AIs plugging into our economy just like humans do today. The AIs are usually used for rote tasks, somewhat analogous to the role of unintelligent software now.

I see scenarios like this as extremely confusing. Even with conservative assumptions, the economic impact of human-level AIs seems to be likely to be much larger than Rosie the Robot type scenarios. Last summer, myself, Steve Rayhawk, Anna Salamon, Rolf Nelson, and Tom McCabe, with help from a few others, sketched out some simple frameworks for modeling possible AI self-improvement speeds, among other things. We used simple variables like “X is how many dollars per hour the AI could earn”, “Y is how many ops/sec is necessary to run said AI”, and “Z is the ability of …

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How Long Before Superintelligence?

“How long before superintelligence” is a paper by Nick Bostrom. Here is the abstract:

“This paper outlines the case for believing that we will have superhuman artificial intelligence within the first third of the next century. It looks at different estimates of the processing power of the human brain; how long it will take until computer hardware achieve a similar performance; ways of creating the software through bottom-up approaches like the one used by biological brains; how difficult it will be for neuroscience figure out enough about how brains work to make this approach work; and how fast we can expect superintelligence to be developed once there is human-level artificial intelligence.”

The paper is also updated with several postscripts, including one from 2008, which says:

“I should clarify what I meant when in the abstract I said I would “outline the case for believing that we will have superhuman artificial intelligence within the first third of the next [i.e. the this] century”. I chose the word “case” deliberately: In particular, by outlining “the case for”, I did not …

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Why Singularity Advocacy Needn’t be Techno-Utopian

According to Vinge’s definition, the Singularity is the creation of greater than human intelligence. Vinge says this could happen in four ways:

1. The development of computers that are “awake” and superhumanly intelligent. (To date, most controversy in the area of AI relates to whether we can create human equivalence in a machine. But if the answer is “yes, we can”, then there is little doubt that beings more intelligent can be constructed shortly thereafter.)

2. Large computer networks (and their associated users) may “wake up” as a superhumanly intelligent entity.

3. Computer/human interfaces may become so intimate that users may reasonably be considered superhumanly intelligent.

4. Biological science may find ways to improve upon the natural human intellect.

I personally consider all of these plausible except for 2, which I can debunk in a separate post if there is any interest. I am also skeptical about 4, but I know some scientists that assure me it is plausible in the relevant time frames.

“Singularitarianism”, as defined in 2000, basically just means, “we …

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The Debate Between Advocates of Soft and Hard Nanotech, June 2008 – February 2009

Dr. Richard Jones is Senior Strategic Advisor for Nanotechnology for the UK’s Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council. In 2008, Jones published a book, Soft Machines: Nanotechnology and Life, that describes why he thinks that advanced nanotechnology will go along more of a biomimicry and organic path rather than rigid structures designed with a mechanical engineering mentality. Soft Machines is published in the UK and the USA by Oxford University Press. For a couple years now I’ve been following Jones’ commentary on nanotechnology, and I respect his viewpoint.

In a recent post on his blog, Jones responds to a response from Robert Freitas and Dr. Ralph Merkle to Jones’ article “Rupturing the Nanotech Rapture”, published in the IEEE Spectrum special issue on the Singularity from June 2008, a paranoid hit piece on the Singularity that editor Glenn Zorpette disingenuously and dishonestly presented as a balanced review. (I made a response of my own shortly after the article was published.) The general gist of Jones’ position is that molecular …

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Assorted Reading for February 20th, 2009

I usually don’t just post links, but this was a really interesting news week, so I’m going to go over some of the stuff I saw that is worth caring about.

Nanowerk: NanoInk introduces new desktop nanofabrication system

NanoInk introduces the next generation Dip Pen Nanolithography® system for desktop nanofabrication, the DPN 5000. Having evolved from the popular NSCRIPTOR™ DPN® System, this new instrument brings greater control and performance to the world of desktop nanofabrication. The DPN 5000 offers versatile nanopatterning capabilities coupled with high-performance AFM (atomic force microscopy) imaging for immediate characterization of the deposited patterns. NanoInk has developed a variety of custom MEMS (micro electromechanical systems) based ink delivery devices, allowing a wide range of materials to be deposited under precisely controlled conditions.

Springerlink: Neurogenesis and Exercise: Past and Future Directions

Research in humans and animals has shown that exercise improves mood and cognition. Physical activity also causes a robust increase in neurogenesis in the dentate gyrus of the hippocampus, a brain area important for learning and memory. The positive correlation between running …

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What Is Meant by “Superintelligence”?

Q. What do you mean by “superintelligence”?

A. Nick Bostrom defined superintelligence in 1998 as “an intellect that is much smarter than the best human brains in practically every field, including scientific creativity, general wisdom and social skills”. This isn’t incredibly specific, because “much smarter” depends entirely on what you mean by “much”. A stubborn skeptic might exclude any future being from the category simply by refusing to grant that entity X is “much” smarter than humans. The definition of “much” is necessarily subjective, but after a certain point, it seems likely that more than 90% of a survey population would agree on what “much smarter than the best human brains” means.

Allow me to create a more specific definition. I propose that superintelligence be defined as a being at least as smarter than Homo sapiens as we are smarter than Homo heidelbergensis. Why Homo heidelbergensis? According to the current consensus, H. heidelbergensis is the most recent known ancestor of modern day H. sapiens. Our species diverged from H. heidelbergensis about 400-200,000 years ago. This puts the species …

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Friendly AI — May I Check Your Philosophical Baggage?

Say that you’re a venture capitalist and some researcher-entrepreneur comes up to you, pitching an idea for a new battery that costs the same as current lithium-ion batteries but holds 50% more charge. You’d evaluate that technical proposal on technical grounds — reviewing your own knowledge of the physics of batteries as well as consulting others who are scientifically well-versed in the matter to determine whether the proposal is possible. Near-term feasibility would also enter into the equation — if the battery took a very long time to make, then you might prefer to invest in something else with a near-term payoff.

Now consider the proposal that many transhumanists are putting forth — that we should create Friendly, roughly human-equivalent AI with the capacity for recursive self-improvement. Obviously, this is a more ambitious project that creating a better battery. Still, like the battery, it deserves an evaluation on technical grounds to the extent that this is possible. Unfortunately for advocates of Friendly AI, this proposal is also subject to obstacles of questioning that …

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80 Missing Computers at Nuke Lab: Watchdog

From Physorg:

Eighty computers have been lost, stolen or gone “missing” at a major US nuclear weapons lab, the nonprofit watchdog group Project On Government Oversight (POGO) has said.

The group posted online a copy of what they say is an internal letter outlining what appear to be worrisome losses at Los Alamos National Laboratory in the state of New Mexico.

The letter says that 13 lab computers were lost or stolen during the past year, three of the machines taken from an employee’s home in January. Another 67 computers are deemed “missing.”

“The magnitude of exposure and risk to the laboratory is at best unclear as little data on these losses has been collected or pursued,” the letter dated February 3 maintains.

The letter, addressed to Department of Energy security officials, contends that “cyber security issues were not engaged in a timely manner” because the computer losses were treated as a “property management issue.”

What became of the missing computers and the “security ramifications of each of the 80 systems” was to be detailed in a written …

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Experts: Space Junk is a Huge Problem

It looks like I had a point on Friday when I was talking about the dangers of space junk. There’s a press release on PhysOrg titled, “Space crash called ‘catastrophic,’ lots of debris”.

Russian Mission Control chief Vladimir Solovyov: “debris from the collision could stay in orbit for up to 10,000 years and even tiny fragments threaten spacecraft because both travel at such a high orbiting speed.”

James Oberg, aerospace engineer: “At physical contact at orbital speeds, a hypersonic shock wave bursts outwards through the structures. It literally shreds the material into confetti and detonates any fuels.”

David Wright, Union of Concerned Scientists: “The collision had possibly generated tens of thousands of particles larger than 1 centimeter (half an inch), any of which could significantly damage or even destroy a satellite.”

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Space: That Boring and Dangerous Place

Note: most of the first half of this post may be made irrelevant by the Orion space laser proposal. Most of the last four paragraphs are valid, though. Still, the architects of the laser acknowledge that it would be useless for large pieces of space debris. I also added the phrase “in the near term” in the sixth paragraph.

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Two satellites, Iridium 33 and Kosmos-2251, slammed into each other at 12 km/sec on Tuesday, obliterating one another and creating a major junk cloud. The junk cloud will probably continue orbiting the Earth until we deploy a mote of utility fog hundreds of miles wide to clean it up. This is the first step on the road to the dreaded Kessler Syndrome, a phenomenon whereby more and more fragments of space junk are created in collisions giving rise to more collisions. The eventual result will be that it will be impossible to launch spaceships that aren’t heavily shielded, and you won’t be able to engage in extra-vehicular activity without a thick, unflexible, and well-armored power suit. …

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