Accelerating Future Transhumanism, AI, nanotech, the Singularity, and extinction risk.


Space: That Boring and Dangerous Place

Note: most of the first half of this post may be made irrelevant by the Orion space laser proposal. Most of the last four paragraphs are valid, though. Still, the architects of the laser acknowledge that it would be useless for large pieces of space debris. I also added the phrase "in the near term" in the sixth paragraph.


Two satellites, Iridium 33 and Kosmos-2251, slammed into each other at 12 km/sec on Tuesday, obliterating one another and creating a major junk cloud. The junk cloud will probably continue orbiting the Earth until we deploy a mote of utility fog hundreds of miles wide to clean it up. This is the first step on the road to the dreaded Kessler Syndrome, a phenomenon whereby more and more fragments of space junk are created in collisions giving rise to more collisions. The eventual result will be that it will be impossible to launch spaceships that aren't heavily shielded, and you won't be able to engage in extra-vehicular activity without a thick, unflexible, and well-armored power suit. We sure as hell won't be able to build a space elevator without major risk, because a cable a couple centimeters thick will get snapped easily by space junk with that much kinetic energy, unless heavily shielded.

The Liftport FAQ gives a 1/625 chance of catastrophic failure of a space elevator given a heavy meteor shower from the Leonids, and those rocks are about 3 inches big at most. Space junk can be much larger. You can move the anchor around to dodge most pieces of junk, but at some point it gets difficult, plus, if tourists are risking their lives every time they go up there, who will want to use it? Bits of space junk going at 12 km/sec travel about 10 times faster than a bullet, which gives them not 10 times as much kinetic energy, but, you guessed it, 100 times as much. That can hurt, even if you did the smart thing and replaced all your bones and muscles with fullerenes before going up there.

Space elevators, space elevators, space elevators. Who says transhumanists are excessively optimistic about technology? Here I am, criticizing space elevators and constantly going on about the risks of nanotech, robotics, synthetic biology, and AI. Meanwhile, yesterday I read an article by some conservative Christian who is criticizing transhumanists by saying we are "embracing any and all forms of the new technologies", with "almost no qualms about all the controversial technologies of the day". Working for the Lifeboat Foundation, qualming is practically all I ever do all day. What else? Two weeks ago, when I published the benefits of uploading post, some people were going on about how I was only focusing on the upsides and not the downsides. But notice how the category "risks" on this blog has the second-most posts out of any tag, second only to "transhumanism". I act positive for one minute, write a post short enough that people might actually read it, thereby necessitating my leaving out the potential downsides, and someone's there to jump on me.

In fact, there's been points in the past where all I do is talk about risks and possible roadblocks and people say I'm being too Apocalyptic. Then, I write something about the benefits of some possible future technology, and get people who say I'm being too Utopian. Make up your mind! If I had to choose one, I would definitely take Apocalyptic. Given the stupidity of humans and the power of our technology, I think you'd have to be uneducated not to be Apocalyptic, frankly.

Back to the space situation. The more we colonize space, the more junk we will create and the more heavily shielded every craft will need to be. So you can forget rockets. We're already just throwing away money right now by even bothering to send people up into space on rockets, which have the terrible tendency of spontaneously exploding (what else would you expect from a bomb with a hole poked in the side?) We should be investing all our money in novel ways to get to space, like developing better manufacturing technologies to actually build spacecraft that are truly strong and light. Meanwhile, all the articles on the satellite collision are saying, "Litter in orbit - caused in part by the break-ups of old satellites - has increased to such an extent that it is now the biggest threat to a space shuttle in flight." If it's a threat now, when there's only been one major satellite-satellite collision, I can't wait to see what it will be in a few decades, when we see more of these events occurring. Of course, even if we start making spacecraft out of fullerenes, fullerene debris will be generated soon enough.

It's hard to get around it -- space junk is going to be a showstopper when it comes to colonizing orbit in the near term. That's alright, though, because we have a lot of other colonization to do. How about colonizing the oceans? They're empty. Or hey, what about colonizing the deserts? Barely anyone lives in them, and they're brimming over with solar and thermal energy. How about mountains? 25% of the world's land area is mountainous, including 67% of Asia, but barely anyone lives on the things. How about colonizing Antarctica? Way, way, way easier and cheaper than colonizing space. People don't think of these wonderful opportunities because they grew up letting television (Star Trek) think for them.

Space has no air, warmth, water, life, pressure, or much matter to speak of. Antarctica has all these things. Before we colonize space, we should be able to colonize Antarctica easily. If we can't colonize Antarctica, then what are we doing in space? Without molecular manufacturing, it will lead to nothing but tears and broken dreams. Even with it, colonizing Antarctica would be much more exciting. Of course, there's the Moon, but the Moon is freezing, geologically boring, and there's nothing there that isn't already here. Plus, there's the danger of solar storms, which can kill anyone in the open in mere minutes. That will ruin your day.

The excitement of space will end when people go there and get over the novelty of eating M&Ms in weightlessness and the ability to see the Earth. People will realize the shocking fact that there's nothing there. Hence the term space, as in empty space. What matter does exist up there will be constantly threatening to punch a hole right through your body, like a rail gun, moving at 12 km/sec. If you think the Earth is crowded now, try living in a space station. Until we gain the ability to create huge (miles wide or larger) air bubbles in space enclosed by rapidly self-healing transparent membranes, it will be cramped and overwhelmingly boring. You'll spend even more time on the Internet up there than down here, and your connection will be slow.

Why life extensionists would want to go up in space without advanced molecular nanotech (MNT) to protect themselves is beyond me. If you take a look at the history of space exploration, it often consists of people dying in unpleasant and unexpected ways. Death by depressurization. Death during launch. Death during reentry. If the Apollo 13 crew didn't stir their oxygen tank on the way to the Moon, earlier than they planned, then they would have stirred it while one astronaut was in lunar orbit and the other two were on the surface. The astronaut in lunar orbit would have died due to freezing to death, meanwhile the two on the Moon's surface would be stuck there until their oxygen ran out. Imagine the impact that would have had on getting the new generation excited about space travel. How many more have to die before we realize that sending people into space without MNT is stupid?

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  1. Perhaps mountains and Antarctica aren’t colonized because they offer nothing of value over other parts of the world.

    Space, on the other hand, offers plenty of hard vacuum, solar power, micro-gravity, raw materials (asteroids and comets), exoticism, and distance from existing political institutions. Not the best place to be a medieval farmer, but that doesn’t mean it can’t be economically sustainable.

    On uploads and space. One consequence of sped-up uploads I haven’t seen mentioned much is that subjective distance is increased. The ping time to Mars at 1x speedup is minimum 6.07 minutes, at 1 million times speedup that becomes 11.6 years subjective. Heck, just the opposite side of the world becomes 37 hours away. That kind of subjective distance, and of course the potentially lesser usefulness of the benefits of space might make space seem an irrelevant backwater. Of course, lifetimes will be so much longer…

    We won’t know till we get there.

  2. Space could be built up pre-full blown molecular nanotechnology by using robotics for mining and construction of facilities. We can make concrete on the moon and robust facilities could be pre-made before sending any people.

    Then the launch systems could be made about as safe as existing airplanes. So there would still be risks but comparable to existing risks.

    Sometimes we need to be willing to take risks to move things forward at least as much risks as we face now. Why are car accidents OK, or deaths on Everest or slipping in your bathtub while really pushing the frontier is not ?

    == that being said it does not look like space efforts will get their act together before we have really good technology to make it easy.

    2020 seems like the earliest for some significant push into space. And it seems the most it could be is a few thousand going to Bigelow low earth orbit hotels on next generation SpaceX or Virgin Galactic vehicles. Plus some robotic solar electric sails flying around the inner solar system. Nuclear fusion could at that start coming together and could be combined with advanced vasimir drive or direct fusion QED drive.

    MNT and advanced DNA nanotech could be coming together pretty well by that point.

    2025-2035 it all seems likely to come together anyway. Advanced new power systems, very advanced MNT, bulk production (hundreds of thousands of tons, maybe millions of tons or more) of carbon nanotubes and graphene materials, single stage to orbit vehicles or hypersonic vehicle to tether, laser array launch and boost etc…

    Greening the desert is happening now and is getting a boost from hydrophobic sand. Sea steading probably will come together too.

  3. That was a pretty stupid post to say the least. You know, Michael, your know-it-all-attitude can be highly annoying at times. In fact it’s insufferable.
    You clearly have no idea what you’re talking about when it comes to spaceflight or the feasiblity of colonizing space with current (or near term) technology. Your concerns about space debris are without merit, period, do some research (“a showstopper”?? LOL). And by that I mean reading some books, not doing a five minute google search (like you probably did before writing that crappy post). Right now you’re simply ignorant.

    Also, you might want to check out the SpaceX website. Elon Musk is a cool guy who is actually doing things while *a lot* of ‘professional’ transhumanists are simply windbags who do nothing but talk -like you.(I’m a transhumanist by the way but I think that it’s the scientists and engineers that are important for making it happen not the ‘thinkers’ and ‘experts’ on the sidelines, they’re cheerleaders, nothing more).

  4. Why don’t you try stressing balance between risks and upside within each post, rather than vacillating between extremes between posts? That approach seems to work well for, say, Jamais Cascio.

    IMHO, George Dvorsky also had a decent piece about the potential downsides of uploading.

    You make space junk sound like an amusing answer to the Fermi Paradox: by the time civilizations attempt to leave their home planets, their previous, careless efforts have left enough junk in orbit to eviscerate any attempt to leave!

  5. Chris, I’m actually the only person I’m aware of who talks about the subjective speedup issue often. See “2200 will never come” and “Space Travel: Not for a Billion Years”. Plenty of hard vacuum! Woo. The mountains and Antarctica offer tremendous value, but I won’t go into it.

    Seppel, you’ll just have to suffer through it. Sorry for skewering your sacred cow. Maybe you’ll just have to grow up and learn to take criticism.

  6. Actually space exploration/settlement is not my “sacred cow”, it’s one of many issues I’m interested in. And maybe it is you who needs to learn to take criticism (like my previous comment) and do some research ASAP.

    As for suffering through it: I don’t think so. There are better singularity-themed blogs out there…

  7. “Until we gain the ability to create huge (miles wide or larger) air bubbles in space enclosed by rapidly self-healing transparent membranes, it will be cramped and overwhelmingly boring”

    “Without molecular manufacturing, it will lead to nothing but tears and broken dreams. Even with it, colonizing Antarctica would be much more exciting.”

    Hi Michael,

    I’ll try not to repeat Brian’s comments here. As someone with a day job in space exploration and interest in transhumanism I agree with your second comment. Manned space exploration is highly dangerous and frought with problems that, as you stated, probably won’t be overcome with serious advances in nanotech. Although I get teary-eyed reading about the glory days and would love to experience setting foot on another terrestrial planet someday (although that hope will probably not be fulfilled), I believe that most of the science that we do could be much more easily handled more easily completed using robotic missions (which also needs plenty of advances in areas of telepresence, materials technology, etc).

    That said, I am surprised that your blog entry didn’t discuss the options available to us given the advances in technology that we hope to see. I am new to this blog so please forgive me if you have discussed this in the past. In the first quote above, I’m wondering if you were purposefully projecting near-term solutions given large-scale robust nanotechnology. My question to you is, do you think that it would be possible in a similar time frame as the “bubble-station” scenario to fit ourselves, per the definition of transhumanism, to our surrounds, rather than the other way around. I feel like this discussion about space exploration in transhumanist circles rarely discusses what adaptations we could possibly make to our bodies, to live and work in space and on other planets.

  8. Seppel, I have been reading numerous books on space and space colonization since I was 6. “The Millennial Project” by Marshall T. Savage is one of my favorite books.

    Gregory, excellent question. Yes, it could be possible to modify our bodies to survive in space around the same time as we can make the gigantic air bubbles, but they’d both probably require MNT. To cope with the danger of catastrophic failure of a space station, people would preferably need the ability to survive without oxygen and pressure for hours on end, which would probably necessitate respirocytes and a complete body-enclosing membrane. A universal manufacturing machine would be pretty much necessary, as well as a large NEO which has been towed into LEO to serve as a source of raw materials to repair space stations in situ in case of catastrophic damage.

    In my post I’m mostly ignoring the possibility of modifying the body, because most space aficionados think space would be a fun and safe place to be even in our usual biological chassis. I want to slam the point home that this is false, as some people with day jobs in space exploration already know. Even with body modification, MNT is required to make it safe, so we might as well ignore space entirely for now and just work on MNT, it seems.

  9. I think sites are most effective when specialized. I go to X for world news, I go to Y for funny pictures.

    I just think its hard to reconcile fear and awe at the same time. Ideally, one would neither fear nor gawk, simply thinking reasonably. but try to keep in mind your audience.. humans can be gripped by only so many emotions simultaneously and still think rationally. like a roller coaster so frightening and awesome that you can do none other than grip tightly to your seat, having no thought but feeling.

  10. I am sorry to say that I fail to share your enthusiasm for the more hostile parts of Earth over that of space. Some reasons that Antarctica, the seas or deserts aren’t being colonised: the worldwide population shift to cities – not many people want to go and trail blaze in a hostile environment, high cost of colonising, existing borders of said areas, the unpleasantness of the environment, the isolation, the inability to farm – requiring massive imports of food, etc. If you already have to contend with most of the problems of living in space on Earth, and you actually want to go to space, then why not just go there?

    Space junk is a problem, but it’s an engineering problem. Whether we put junk there or whether it’s just rocks it’s still going to be a problem that we are going to have to address if we intend to proceed much further than orbit.

    If we make a space elevator, that’s going to present major risk with or without space debris. I would think that the astronauts that risk blowing up every time they get in a spacecraft would be more than happy to use it. Besides, the real pay-off from a space elevator isn’t moving people (we can already do that) it’s moving multiple tons of cargo (which we can’t).

    Planes crashed all the time during their development, they still do. Does that prevent air travel being viable? Of course not. Space craft currently fail catastrophically because they are essentially a bomb with a nozzle. If you can get halfway there (with a scram jet for example) then you can reduce the required fuel. There are many ways of increasing safety – we’ll find more as we go along. That is how technology progresses – it’s dangerous in the beginning. It will never be 100% safe and that isn’t a good enough reason not to do it.

    As for tourists not wanting to make the trip, so what? They might get bored with space? Go to Fiji instead. What a pack of sissies, I wouldn’t put up with that kind of lame crap terrestrially.

    Some life extensionists may not to go to space out of the fear it, many of us don’t have that problem. Exploring is never going to be safe, that isn’t a show stopper.

    To describe the Moon as geologically boring is to invite assassination attempts from geologists.

    The fact of the matter is that there are many reasons that people want to go to space. Risk isn’t enough to stop them. That’s a big part of what being human is to me.

    A conservative Christian complaining about technology that they are more than happy to take the benefits of? How shocking, who would have thought? That kind of person deserves the same contempt any hypocrite does. I’m happy to pile on an extra serving for being a luddite – but that is purely a personal bias.

    In regards to the tone of the blog, I’d like to see a more balanced and tempered approach. However, I understand that the day you please everyone is also the day that whatever you say is no longer of any worth. The only option is to strive to do the best job you can, pleasing people shouldn’t be your main concern in my book.

    I understand this is a blog of your viewpoint but you often come off as very rigid and polar in your opinions. A lot of transhumanists cop the ‘nerd rapture’ missive, but when the debate boils down to apocalypse or paradise with no middle ground it starts to be deserved one.

    I tend to think the future is likely to be very much as the past has been, both good and bad. Having the capability to entirely change what you are does exist today (albeit in a nascent form compared to what transhumanism posits) and is rarely taken to extremes. Having the capability to nuke the entire world 500 times over has existed longer than most of your readers have (certainly me), and we’re still here. Could and Is are two entirely different things.

    To class people who disagree with you as uneducated, solely because they fail to share your pessimism, is the crudest form of debate short of outright insult. You earn no respect for that, it only serves to discredit your arguments. Make your point and let it stand or fall on it’s merits. You don’t need a cheer squad.

  11. @Seppel:
    “Elon Musk is a cool guy who is actually doing things”
    got me interested in what he’s actually doing. Everything he’s done has been done before, and often on a larger scale. Banking, software, vehicles, energy.
    There are no new inventions of his that I can readily find. What research there was. was in integrating existing (cutting edge) technology. The new things “of his” became possible because of other people’s inventions like the internet, materials, energy technology. He’s just riding along making use of what’s already there, not pushing frontiers (say, in theoretical and experimental natural sciences). Historically a very successful way of monetizing your life. It’s not the inventors, it’s the integrators who get all the money (and chicks – inventors often being too nerdy and interested in their research). It’s all good, but he doesn’t rank up there with the pioneers who do something unprecedented and unparalleled.

    “would love to experience setting foot on another terrestrial planet someday”

  12. I’m not impressed with the likes of Musk or “entrepreneurs” in general. They’re too focused on the dollar and too little on research. As Woz said, “Not having any money helps.” Unprecedented and unparalleled research leading to unprecedented and unparalleled applications are what we need to get to the future. Integrating existing technologies is like rearranging furniture; the room may look nicer, but it’s still the same room with the same stuff in it.

  13. Perhaps I’m being too harsh on Musk; compared to the utter uselessness of the bulk of humanity in moving us towards a better future, he’s doing fantastically well. But he’s a small fish. We need large ones.

    Michael’s thinking serves an important purpose. By making the issues known, both the good and the bad, the able will do something about them, and the unable will be knowledgeable enough to see the issues as being worth their support or at least not violently opposing them.

  14. The orion laser system is a cheap and a plausible way to remove all 1-10cm space debris in a few years. Us usual, you haven’t researched the practical technology to remove space debris. “Utility fog” will never be used to do the job.

  15. sdf, I am trying to just think reasonably. I reasonably think that circumstances could cause the extinction of the human race or the creation of benevolent superintelligence within the century.

    Stuart, I’ll think about taking a more “balanced and tempered approach”, but even from such an approach I still see “superlative” risks and benefits from technology over the next few decades.

    Anon, thanks for pointing that out, I’ve included a note at the top of the post that remarks how much of it is made irrelevant by the Orion laser system.

  16. Space offers a highly inefficient method of doing scientific research, there’s a lot more bang for your buck in terrestrial R&D. So it is correct to note the undeserved hype that space is given in the scientific community.

    Of course, if we redirect all/most of our space budget to asteroid deflection, that criticism is nulled.

  17. Superstimulus

    Do some more reading. Musk is not doing it for the money. He could have retired at age thirty, he could have bought his own island and lived very comfortably for the rest of his life. He didn’t because he really believes in what he is doing. Read some interviews or profiles or better yet watch some videos with him. The guy taught himself rocket science within a few years time and he is without any doubt a lot smarter than any of us here.

    Also, what he is doing is highly innovative. I will not go into any technical detail here, do your own research. But consider this: His rockets cost one quarter the prices being charged by Boeing and Lockmart. That should tell you something. Another hint: full reusability, if succesful it will be revolutionary and that is an understatement.

    As for Musk being a small fish: If Musk manages to establish an autonomous colony on Mars (his long-term goal) and meanwhile humanity fucks it up really badly on Earth he will be the single most important figure in history ever.

  18. @ Seppel
    Thanks for the clari. Guess I’ll have to suck some Musk-formed 01s thru the tubes… I wonder if NASA has eyes on him; probably hired/bought the guy already if he’s really all that – the ticket to Mars!

    [2071 news: NASA remembers Musk; the pioneer who took us to Musk.
    Reporting from Muskgrad, Muskistan, Musk (previously known as Mars)]

  19. Michael, love the billion years post.

    It doesn’t mean space will not be used, though. I can hardly imagine it won’t. There’ll no doubt be personalities with the motivation and resources to launch themselves with replicators *everywhere* in the solar system, and beyond, even at the risk of later leavers arriving first, no matter what the time delays. And distance, especially for political reasons, has a benefit no matter how similar the resource distribution at the destination.

    On Antarctica and Mountains: they aren’t now much differentiated from occupied land, except they’re worse, whereas space has advantages nowhere on earth has. In an era of uploads and computronium, what benefit could they offer besides an atmosphere and proximity to ‘civilization’?

  20. There’s more showbiz with space.

    “Make the important interesting.”
    -James Fallows

  21. You certainly are an opinionated ass. Who am I to complain? I’m an opinionated ass too.

    I like that you think space travel is a money pit, because I agree, for similar reasons.

    But, think for a second. You blog constantly about the risks of approaching technology, but oppose a very promising risk-mitigation strategy like space colonization.

    Would be nice if we set up a strategy to minimize the approaching risks, rather than wait for the approaching risk to give us the technology to minimize the risk, wouldn’t it? Did that sound too much like Cpt Jack Sparrow?

  22. @Superstimulus

    NASA is cooperating with SpaceX and are paying them hundreds of millions already. But it’s not enough if you consider how badly NASA is handling the development of their own Ares 1.


    Yeah, Michael doesn’t make any sense here. If we’re in danger of wiping ourselves out in this century we should do everything to establish an autonomous colony in space that can go on even if everything and everyone on Earth is consumed by gray goo.

  23. Here’s a simple argument for a space elevator.
    Not that the space elevator in itself is the important thing; show me another way to get scalable amounts of material out of the gravity well and I’ll consider it as a viable option.

    Why is it important that we haul all this material out of our gravity well, you say?

    Because if we don’t, our species will become extinct.

    OK, call me a species chauvinist. Personally I think intelligent hairless monkeys are, well – cute, if not a little dangerous. If you don’t like hairless monkeys, go away, don’t bother talking to me. I’m not interested in anything you have to say. Go join another species.
    Me, I’d really like to see our species survive.

    Did you know that a tape worm has more genetic variety than we do?
    That’s because they are so much better at surviving massive global upheaval than we are.
    Global upheaval? Yeah – super volcanoes, large meteorite impacts. Some scientists speculate that our gene pool is threadbare because we were rubbed down to the thousands at several points in our short existence on this planet.

    This civilization is our last, best chance for our species to raise the odds of long term survival.
    A space elevator?
    Yeah, yeah – I hear the hippie-dippies saying, “We’ve got to feed the poor first before we can even consider fancy hair-brained schemes like a space elevator.”
    Then there’s those guys who claim (snicker) that we are killing the planet.
    Really, you’ve GOT to be joking! The only thing we’re are capable of putting a dent in is the biosphere, and you can bet your boots that a mere 70,000,000 years after we’ve snuffed our mortal coil, the biosphere will be thanking you for extracting all the carbon that had been silted over in succeeding epochs. Buddy, the only thing we are capable of killing is ourselves – and that’s another compelling reason to hoist our keisters outta here.

    Argument #486: (With a self-righteous, whiny voice)”Well if we are nothing better than a pariah on the Universe, then it’s probably better if we’re become extinct…”
    Aw, puleeze – go pop a bullet in your head if you don’t like being one of us. I really tire listening to righteous self-loathing.
    OK, so we’re not perfect – but we sure as hell aren’t going to improve ourselves if we are dead.

    For those of you still reading this, the space elevator is our species birth canal, our umbilical cord into the Universe, and times’a runnin’ out! Our civilization has done a really good job of using up the giant’s share of raw materials. After it collapses, (and it WILL collapse folks!) there won’t be a next time. Even if our species were to survive whatever horrible collapse we have in store for ourselves, there simply won’t be enough raw material left over for a second try.

    So – the space elevator is our last, best hope for species survival. Shall I spell it out?
    If we can get off-planet and start bothering our neighboring asteroids, moons and planets and building a variety of sizable settlements, it might be just the ticket if we:
    1. Have a major thermonuclear war. (No thank you, I already have one.)
    2. A super-volcano decides to blow (google innocent li’ll ol’ Yellowstone.)
    3, A ruddy great big lump of rock decides to smash into our planet (Yeah, like that’ll never happen) I’ll have mine with Tungusta, please.
    4. Nut-jobs with bio-warfare ambitions. Crazies who really, really don’t like hairless monkeys – or themselves.

    These are just some of the delicious ways our species will depart this universe. Please notice I wrote WILL, not, MIGHT.
    Ask any semi-serious scientist: They’ll tell you that it’s not “if” it’s going to happen, it’s “when”.

    So folks, now’s not the time to be coy. Let’s roll up our sleeves and get to work on what’s really, really important to our species. Those that come after us will thank us for it.
    Perhaps they won’t – but at least they’ll have the luxury of choice.

    Thanks for reading. (Don’t you have something better to do with your time?)

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