The Singularity is Just About Smarter than Human Intelligence Friday, Feb 27 2009
singularity 4:07 pm
I.J. Good gave one of the first articulations of the Singularity concept in 1960 in his essay “Speculations Concerning the First Ultraintelligent Machine”. He said:
“Let an ultraintelligent machine be defined as a machine that can far surpass all the intellectual activities of any man however clever. Since the design of machines is one of these intellectual activities, an ultraintelligent machine could design even better machines; there would then unquestionably be an ‘intelligence explosion,’ and the intelligence of man would be left far behind. Thus the first ultraintelligent machine is the last invention that man need ever make.”
Then, in 1990, Vinge defined the Singularity as:
“the imminent creation by technology of entities with greater than human intelligence”
Nothing about genetics. Nothing about life extension. Nothing about nanotechnology. Nothing about robotics. Nothing about wearable computing. Only smarter than human intelligence. Nothing else. Technology only enters into the picture because it’s the only thing that could actually lead to the creation of smarter than human intelligence, and the assumed means by which this intelligence would influence the world. The involvement of technology is secondary, not primary.
The Wikipedia article on the Singularity has already been updated to articulate the clear division that I’ve always argued for here on this blog: the difference between an intelligence explosion and accelerating change. Notice how the first two paragraphs on the page focus on the concept as introduced by I.J. Good and Vernor Vinge. Ray Kurzweil is not mentioned until the third paragraph. The Intelligence Explosion concept is where it belongs — in the first section. The Accelerating Change concept comes after the discussion of the Intelligence Explosion. When your advocacy of making the ideas distinct appears to be winning, it’s hard to give up.
Vinge’s definition of the Singularity as greater than human intelligence has been around since at least 1993, or about 16 years. In contrast, Ray Kurzweil’s definition of the Singularity, which takes him about three pages to expound and is more of a general description of emerging technologies and transhumanism, didn’t come about until 2001, making it about eight years old. The original, precise definition is about twice as old as the newer, vaguer definition.
What is astonishing is how the latter definition seems to be so ubiquitous that intelligent people can actually read the former definition and it passes right through them without registering, like a neutrino. It’s like they never even read it. For instance, on VentureBeat, Anthony Ha writes,
“The Singularity, for those of you with only a fuzzy idea what the trendy term actually means, was coined by Vernor Vinge, a computer scientist and (excellent) science fiction writer, back in 1993 to describe the point at which rapidly accelerating technology makes the future literally impossible to predict.”
This is false. Vinge described the Singularity as the point at which superhuman intelligence makes the future impossible to predict. Accelerating technology and superhuman intelligence are not the same thing. The former is not necessary for the latter, nor the latter for the former. Superhuman intelligence might decide to invent a bunch of technologies and then just stop, for the radical reason that maybe some people would be better off without unlimited technology. Superhuman intelligence would hopefully be reasonable and moral as well as superintelligent (if we do our jobs right), so why would it necessary keep inventing technologies endlessly and mindlessly, like some sort of unstoppable deranged machine?
The Singularity is not necessarily when we transcend our biological limitations. It could be when a single entity or small group of entities transcends their limitations (biological or otherwise), and then decides that the world would be more interesting if we were all dead and replaced by beings of their design, or nothing at all. The Singularity could be the moment that a group of entities becomes superintelligent and decides that the world is best if the status quo is preserved literally forever. The group that becomes superintelligent potentially rules over all of us. Superintelligence does not necessarily entail supermorality. It could be more of the same. No happy techno-fantasy la-la land. The future may end up looking more like the past than our facile imaginings of The Future(tm).
I think people are inclined to talk more about accelerating technology than superhuman intelligence because the former is easier to imagine while the latter is not. Still, why not try to imagine the latter? Consider working on an incredibly difficult engineering or math problem for years on end, when a universal genius comes along, offers to help you out, and suddenly all the pieces fall into place. You suddenly view all your past efforts, sleepless nights, and brainstorming sessions as transient pieces in a larger vision that was beheld and articulated on sight by the genius. You wonder how many others around the planet are clawing at the darkness of solution space, just waiting to have their search illuminated by the light of intelligence.
The shock of this experience might seem amazing, but it can be instilled by differences in intelligence only within the human normal distribution. Now imagine the same experience, but the universal genius being above you in an inter-species fashion, the way a human is above a chimp, rather than a genius is above an average human. Typically, the thought process of this genius is entirely inscrutable. It only becomes understandable when the genius makes a point of explaining the pieces to you in terms you understand. If the genius is sufficiently smarter than you, it might take them decades to connect all the dots in a way you comprehend, so you only get the salient parts.
There are many reasons why discussing these concepts is somewhat unpopular. First, we like to pretend that intelligence doesn’t matter, or that it can’t be measured. These are fictions. Many academics have political motives to denigrate intelligence research — they consider it necessary for the morale of humanity that everyone be seen as having equal potential, lest the very philosophical underpinnings of democracy be put at risk. Intelligence research is associated with racism (The Bell Curve) and eugenics. If someone is talking about quantifying intelligence, they must only be talking about it because they think they’re smarter than you and want to step on you.
This might be true in some cases, but here, in 2009, understanding intelligence is important, whether or not people put that understanding to unscrupulous ends. The reality of intelligence differentials must not be denied. If there is any magic in the universe, it’s intelligence, and if denying that people are born with more or less of it gets in the way of our responsibly handling the creation of a new intelligent species, then these ideas must be discarded. Our species is on the cusp of an event that’s never been seen before: intelligence building intelligence. If we focus on the shiny glittering toys of technology, we get entirely distracted by the true task ahead of us.




I thought Kurzweil’s accelerating technology position has been around at least since 2001
http://www.kurzweilai.net/articles/art0134.html?printable=1
Also, the powerful brain interfaces path to cognitive enhancement looks to me like it will get the early jump.
Carbon nanotubes can interface to neurons and nanoparticles can wirelessly activate neurons. Carbon nanotubes are rapidly being developed into complex electronics and computers. Working neuroprostethics (brain enhancement modules) appear no more than two decades away and could even be here in 3-5 years and the computers that are interfaced could have have exaflops or zettaflops or more in 5-10 years.
The early clinical application will be to help people with brain damage like long term memory.
The non-clinical side is carrying around more powerful wearable computers with reality overlay displays and sensors for environment and communication with the wearer. Plus some other non-invasive connections.
Why must you disparage and condemn beautiful, simple humanity to extinction, Michael?
Why do you hate humanity so much.
Why is it, when you look inside yourself, you see nothing of the present, but only value potential?
ddjango, what did I say that make you think that?
I value humanity. It’s possible to value humanity while realizing we can become more, if we choose to. Is that so hard?
In my preferred future, plenty of humans still exist. They’re just joined by other types of beings.
It’ll be awesome when the Wikipedia article is replaced with a disambiguation page with three options.
It’s not consistent with the Intelligence Explosion, I am afraid.
And the IE will happen, little doubt about that.
You talk of the proposed superintellegence as a ‘genius’. I think, therefore it must be important to see just how some people come to be described as a genius? Malcolm Gladwell (the pop sociologist) would say that it just takes 10,000 hours of practice to become truly exceptional in any given field.
Should, in essense, practice be key to genius then essentially the entity in question must be able to practice to such a level to reach ‘superintellegence’. What I’m saying, is that these AI may not be super dooper intellegent, just honed by the equivilant of decades of practice. Since their thought is limited be the speed of light, and ours by the much slower signals in our brain, then a genuis AI could be created in a very short space of time from our POV.
I just think it is vital to take away the mystery of intellegence. It ain’t rocket science.
“If we focus on the shiny glittering toys of technology, we get entirely distracted by the true task ahead of us. ”
– but Michael, the toys are so shiny! oooh! look! ipod. mmmm. can’t … Resist …
To picks some nits, “Greater than Human Intelligence” is insufficient. As is implied by both IJ Good and Vinge, what is needed is a closed feedback loop where what we have done is to create an understood design for a greater-than-human intelligence.
If we were to discover a drug tomorrow that ‘doubled’ human intelligence, it wouldn’t automatically cause a Singularity (although it would certainly accelerate its approach).
Until you can use increased intelligence to further increase intelligence, you don’t have a Singularity.
Stirling: “If we were to discover a drug tomorrow that ‘doubled’ human intelligence… ”
I’m currently writing a paper on measuring intelligence, and it isn’t clear to me what one means by “doubling” intelligence…
Intelligence isn’t naturally measured by a field methinks…
Calling things like extended lifespan, nifty gadgets and faster computers the ‘singularity’ doesn’t make a lot of sense, because there’s no difficulty in imagining what we would do if we had those things.
I’m already using things now pretty much as I imagined I would be 10 years ago. In a non-singularity future, I imagine I will be doing roughly what I do now, but more efficiently.
Thanks for trying to keep the term meaningful. The way it is used now is just as a word people think sounds cool and futuristic, suitable to be thrown randomly into any conversation about technology.
I’d imagine that the problem is that for most of us, the Intelligence Explosion concept is a) seemingly less likely than accelerating change, which is apparent all around us and b) decidedly less interesting, since it doesn’t involve us directly.
ddjango: “Why must you disparage and condemn beautiful, simple humanity to extinction..”
I can’t defend all of Michael’s positions, but extinction is the path we’re already on. Also, it seems selfish to only consider the possibility of our extinction. There are plenty of other highly evolved species worth helping out.
Thomas: “..It’s not consistent with the Intelligence Explosion, I am afraid.
And the IE will happen, little doubt about that.”
There are an abundance of “inconsistencies” both on Earth and in space which manage to exist despite what intuitively seems likely. But you’ve made an unavoidably crucial point there. The order in which these technologies are implemented will have far reaching effects, as will the manner in which they are distributed.
Friendly AI is near, if not, at the top of the list as far as order goes, so that when superintelligent robots come around, they love us, and become an extension of us. We’ll need to form symbiotic relationships with them.
Now if you’re talking superintelligence in humans, then it might be important to have an advanced democratic model (advanced enough to be completely inclusive, as to not quell the voices of contrarians) set in place so that the scientists and scholars of any relevant field would be able to set strict guidelines for determining sound candidates for an “upgrade.”
Another idea worth considering, is that we still haven’t unlocked all of the mysteries of the mind. What if, we find a way to achieve some degree of superintelligence without tweaking anything? And we need to get bigger heads? :D
Now this is off-topic, but I was wondering if someone could explain to me, whether or not, we could use a space elevator to directly transport those giant islands of garbarge in the Pacific (no, not at once), above the atmosphere, then burn it up in the outer atmosphere?
Stirling Westrup:
your criticism only affects the Intelligence Explosion concept.
Vinge’s terminology was regarding any greater than human intelligence, even if it were static in ability.
His concern was the inability to predict the actions of such a being. If there existed a pill to double human intelligence, one could not predict the actions of the resulting being. That point in the future is a Vingean Singularity. You might think it’s less exciting than a Good Intelligence Explosion or a runaway acceleration a la Kurzweil, but that’s his original formulation.
It was in fact related to a story in which Vinge tried to write about a modified human.
“To picks some nits, “Greater than Human Intelligence” is insufficient. As is implied by both IJ Good and Vinge, what is needed is a closed feedback loop where what we have done is to create an understood design for a greater-than-human intelligence.”
To pick a nit, human intelligence is unnecessary. The intel explosion can start from less-than-”human” intelligence, if it has the design document for its own intelligence.
(By “less-than-human” I actually mean “less-than-genius”. Most people, when they use the term “human intelligence”, associate it with the greatest things humans have accomplished. They thus actually mean genius-level human intelligence.)
“accelerating change, which is apparent all around us”
People should stop repeating this so easily, and look around them and ask if it’s actually true. I see decelerating change all around me. The rate of technological, scientific, and social change at the start of the 21st century is dwarfed by the rate of technological, scientific, and social change at the start of the 20th century. Compare 1969 vs. 2009, and then compare 1900 vs. 1940. The rate of change we live with is not even half that our grandparents lived with.
So I see the singularity not as something reached on a smoothly-rising curve, but as a spike. (Damien Broderick also calls it The Spike.)
In the days of the youth of us boomers
http://blog.modernmechanix.com/2008/03/24/what-will-life-be-like-in-the-year-2008/
The future never came – except for better displays and games.
But AGI-boomer, I just emphasized that accelerating change is *not* what the future is about! WHY are you giving us your sob stories?
Do some people just read the title and then comment without thinking?
Maybe this is a good place to give a belated answer to the question you posed of me in your earlier entry “The debate between advocates of soft and rigid nanotech”, when you wondered what I meant by singularitarian. For the purpose of articles like “Rupturing the Nanotech Rapture”, which are contributions to a wider public debate, my main reference point is Kurzweil. Of course I know that other definitions of the singularity are possible, since I’m an assiduous reader of your blog, but it is Kurzweil, not you, who is getting the wide media coverage.
In fact, I first heard about singularitarian ideas through Damien Broderick’s book “The Spike”. This was first published in 2001, but I didn’t read it until 2003 (it was never published in the UK, and I’d picked it up in a New Orleans bookshop while at the American Chemical Society meeting). This book is dedicated to Vinge and Moravec, and it begins by ascribing the notion of a technological singularity to Vinge. However, the book’s very much framed around the idea of accelerating change.
I can see why you want to introduce some of these distinctions, but I can’t help feeling you are trying to rewrite history a bit. If I go back to the 1993 Vinge article, I find its opening sentence is “The acceleration of technological progress has been the central feature of this century. I argue in this paper that we are on the edge of change comparable to the rise of human life on Earth. The precise cause of this change is the imminent creation by technology of entities with greater than human intelligence.” So, yes, greater than human intelligence is at the centre of this vision of the singularity, but the idea of accelerating change looks pretty central to the argument as originally made.
Thanks for the comment, Richard. I’m happy you understand the distinction. Broderick’s book, like most on the Singularity, is primarily about accelerating change. Brian Wang was correct that the Kurzweilian version was actually introduced in 2001.
Am I trying to rewrite history? Though technological acceleration is mentioned in that paper, it seems to be more connected to Vinge’s argument that the Singularity will come sooner rather than later, but not central to the idea itself. Remember Vinge is a sci-fi writer who has portrayed the Singularity happening in other places and times — based on absorbing what he’s been saying for about a decade, I strongly see the main thrust of his point being about greater-than-human intelligence, with his comments about accelerating technology being a side issue.
The version of accelerating change he portrays in his paper seems to me to be the “weak claim” of the accelerating change school:
“Our intuitions about change are linear; we expect roughly as much change as has occurred in the past over our own lifetimes. But technological change feeds on itself, and therefore accelerates. Change today is faster than it was 500 years ago, which in turn is faster than it was 5000 years ago. Our recent past is not a reliable guide to how much change we should expect in the future.”
Not the strong claim:
“Technological change follows smooth curves, typically exponential. Therefore we can predict with fair precision when new technologies will arrive, and when they will cross key thresholds, like the creation of Artificial Intelligence.”
I’m somewhat at a loss, actually, because I’m not sure whether or not Vinge’s comments on accelerating change should be included in his definition, which emphasizes superintelligence much more than it does accelerating change. Honestly, I’m uncomfortable conflating the two ideas whatsoever, and I never got the notion that Vinge thought they should always be presented in tandem. But, maybe I should be more faithful to the original text there and mention that accelerating change was part of the meme, albeit the fact that the main role of “technological progress” in Vinge’s idea was to lead up to greater than human intelligence, with none of the notions of unstoppability, universal significance, or moral valence that Kurzweil assigns.
I do understand now that you are responding to Kurzweil in the public debate, but you have to understand I’m somewhat disappointed you keep referring to “Singularitarians” rather than “Kurzweil’s supporters”, because me and many of my friends were calling ourselves Singularitarians for about 5 years before The Singularity is Near came along and stole our self-title away from us. It’s still in that fuzzy area where it’s vaguely possible for us to retain our word from association with Kurzweil, so all I’m doing is attempting it.
In any case, I’ll try to be more clear in the future by saying that Vinge did mention accelerating technology, but what he means by it seems much less complex and specific than what Kurzweil does.
“The future ain’t what it used to be.”
It’s clear that there’s very little that has *fundamentally* changed in the real, physical world since the sixties – yet. Many breakthroughs that will transform life to a dream-like state of symbiosis with technology, are still only incubating. And broad adoption of many of the technologies will take 5-10 years, minimum, after introduction. Practically every invention that can radically transform the world, needs huge computational resources, for design, manufacture, and operation, which we haven’t had in the past decades, and still to an extent don’t have.
It looks like we’re finally on the cusp of a great transformation. You need to go past a certain threshold until everything starts to change radically. Computing power is one such threshold. Combined with better algorithms, programming and scientific tools, the veil of future will be ripped open rather abruptly, rather than in the nearly imperceptible pace until now. I particularly await the robotics revolution. The general purpose home-bot may be closer than predicted.
I for one am happy with the gadgets and services we’ve got in “this future”. Life’s now much better than it ever was 40, 30, 20, or even 10 years ago. Who needs a flying car – or for that matter, a truck, when you’ve got a Series of Tubes…
[...] Singularity is not “the Rapture of the Nerds”. It is a very likely event defined as the technological creation of greater-than-human intelligence. Its likelihood comes from two facts: that intelligence is inherently something that can be [...]
I understand that there is a difference between accelerating technology and the singularity but the point is surely, ok both are happening and both could mean the end of the age of dominion over the earth by Man and his subservience to a ‘higher being or inteligence’ – that is the crucial factor and therefore what must be concentrated upon since it also means either our extinction or enslavement most like…..unless we can just unlpug the thing from the mains socket…