What Is Meant by “Superintelligence”? Wednesday, Feb 18 2009
superintelligence 6:40 am
Q. What do you mean by “superintelligence”?
A. Nick Bostrom defined superintelligence in 1998 as “an intellect that is much smarter than the best human brains in practically every field, including scientific creativity, general wisdom and social skills”. This isn’t incredibly specific, because “much smarter” depends entirely on what you mean by “much”. A stubborn skeptic might exclude any future being from the category simply by refusing to grant that entity X is “much” smarter than humans. The definition of “much” is necessarily subjective, but after a certain point, it seems likely that more than 90% of a survey population would agree on what “much smarter than the best human brains” means.
Allow me to create a more specific definition. I propose that superintelligence be defined as a being at least as smarter than Homo sapiens as we are smarter than Homo heidelbergensis. Why Homo heidelbergensis? According to the current consensus, H. heidelbergensis is the most recent known ancestor of modern day H. sapiens. Our species diverged from H. heidelbergensis about 400-200,000 years ago. This puts the species comparatively closer to us than more famous members of genus Homo including H. erectus (split 1.2 mya) and H. habilis (split at least 1.5 mya).
Of course, this definition is not perfect. The fossils that anthropologists call H. heidelbergensis are distributed over a 350,000-year period — between about 600,000 and 250,000 years ago, with considerable variation across that period. While this is a specific time window relative to most fossil species, it’s still a substantial period of time, and H. heidelbergensis has been accused of being a “wastebasket taxon”. The origin of the category is those problematic fossils with both “erectus-like” and “modern” features, formerly called Archaic Homo Sapiens. Traits of some specimens are listed here. One of the distinguishing features is a larger cranial capacity than earlier Homo species — approximately 1200 cc, relative to the modern human average of 1350 cc.
Still, because H. heidelbergensis is considered by most scientists to be a valid species, for which there is substantial fossil evidence, it provides a concrete reference point in the interspecies intelligence space. We can define “intelligence” using the wiktionary definition, “Capacity of mind, especially to understand principles, truths, facts or meanings, acquire knowledge, and apply it to practice”. H. heidelbergensis had it, as is demonstrated by the stone tools and evidence of organized hunting left behind, and H. sapiens obviously has it in even greater measure. Consider another species, H. novus, with an equal measure of greater intelligence relative to humanity. Intelligence may not be quantifiable on a linear scale, but that does not prevent this definition from being useful in a qualitative sense.
According to my source on Homo heidelbergensis, “The increase in brain size may have also come with an increase in brain complexity, although this is difficult to determine from endocasts, and may have to remain supposition only. However, the increase in absolute size, and the change to larger frontal and parietal lobes indicate that there may have been a reorganization of the functional anatomy of the hominid brain. The increase in size itself indicates changes in behavior that lead to the ability to more easily acquire nutritional resources. This is due to the high nutrition requirements of brain tissue, especially during development. There is increasingly more convincing evidence in the use and control of fire, and in the hunting of animals for food. This time period is important for many reasons, and may be the time period when more modern behavior began to develop.”
There were obviously major changes in the hominid brain around this time, but in the case of Homo heidelbergensis, it apparently wasn’t enough to launch the cognitive revolution ushered in by H. sapiens when it appeared on the scene about 200,000 years ago. This distinct failure should not go unnoticed. If the cognitive solution space were structured differently, Homo heidelbergensis might have had the capacity to develop agriculture and a global civilization, as H. sapiens eventually did. If so, we’d all be members of Homo heidelbergensis, and H. sapiens might never have evolved, the fast clip of hominid cognitive evolution being cut off by its own success. Phenotypic change happens fastest when there is strong selection pressure and beneficial alleles to evolve towards, but the triumph of H. sapiens over our environment has lifted the intense selection pressure experienced by our ancestors. The evolution of new human species via natural means now appears unlikely.
Because Homo heidelbergensis lived only a few hundred thousand years ago, it may be possible to recover enough DNA to revive the species and create living individuals. If so, then the cognitive performance of this species relative to modern humans could be directly compared. Until then, we will have to settle with what we know about the species from fossil and other archaeological evidence. Homo heidelbergensis produced Acheulean stone tools, also known as Mode 2, the second of four divisions of prehistoric stone-working industries. Mode 1 tools were Clactonian or Oldowan tools, which consisted of simple choppers and unretouched biface hand axes. Mode 2 tools consisted of retouched biface hand axes with an average useful cutting edge of 20 cm (8 in), relative to the less useful 5 cm (2 in) average of Mode 1 tools. Mode 2 tools are associated with H. erectus, Homo heidelbergensis, and other pre-human hominins. Mode 3 tools are Mousterian tools, which use the prepared-core technique. Mode 3 tools appeared just 200,000 years ago and are only associated with humans and Neanderthals. Mode 4 tools include the more spectacular lithic blades and are associated with human cultures from the Upper Paleolithic.
For the sake of simplicity, let us assume that Homo heidelbergensis never would have been able to develop Mode 3 tools, even if given millions of years to do so. Indeed, Mode 3 tools were invented practically immediately after the evolution of H. sapiens. A corollary of this is the claim that Homo heidelbergensis would never have been able to develop behavioral modernity, agriculture, or cities. If Homo heidelbergensis were alive today, it would almost certainly be considered too stupid to qualify as legally human, but it would probably occupy a unique intermediary role between humans and other living animals such as chimps. Whether Homo heidelbergensis had language is entirely unknown, but it might have. At the very least, its system of grunting and other non-verbal communication would likely have been substantially more complex than that of chimps or gorillas.
My definition of superintelligence is just an interesting and slightly more specific way of looking at the concept than the standard definition. It makes no specific claims about the form of a possible H. novus, just that it would be broadly smarter than us in the way that we’re smarter than Homo heidelbergensis. I advance the concept as a starting point for debate. Under this definition, there are those that might consider superintelligence impossible, and those who might consider it possible. Sometimes the word “superintelligence” is associated with entities like Jupiter Brains, so this new definition provides a service by offering a less radical and more easily defensible position. Personally, it seems difficult to deny the in-principle possibility of superintelligence under this definition, but many would likely disagree with me.




It seems very far from obvious that the difference between humans isn’t this large, and also very unlikely that by this standard a single superintelligence would be able to take over the world.
It also doesn’t seem to fit Bostrom’s definition. Uncertain that modern humans are superior to heidelbergensis in all the fields that it cared about, e.g. social interactions with heidelbergensis.
@michael vassar:
Indeed, for example my flint-knapping skillz are less than heidelbergian.
What constitutes superintelligence is an interesting question. Another is what constitutes intelligence: not just what separates us from animals, but what property separates humans from rocks, trees, and stars.
What distinguishes human beings from biological evolution? The process of biological evolution has demonstrated itself to be capable of creating a vast number of extremely complex and powerful machines using rather poor basic materials.
MV-
Humanity has had only 70,000 years to evolve since the bottleneck. We split from H. hiedelbergensis about 250,000 years ago. For variance between H. hiedelbergensis and H. sapiens to be less than the variance within H. sapiens, the rate of evolutionary cognitive change in the last 70,000 years would have to be about 3 times greater than the average rate of change between 250,000 and 70,000 years ago. Possible, but seems a priori implausible.
Do you think that a single individual being able to take over the world is a necessary feature of superintelligence?
If H. sapiens is better than H. hiedelbergensis in 99% of the things that it cared about, I’d call that good enough.
How long since transhumanists split from the main trunk of humanity?
How long since singularitarians split from the main trunk of transhumanism?
We’re still humans, thank you, but if you mean when did the philosophies take their present form, the answers would be 1990 and 2000, roughly. Some would argue dates 3-5 years earlier for each, depending on what you think qualifies.
Is there anything more or different in sight or are these likely the remain the most advanced ways of thinking until the heat death of the universe?
Can you envision a “post” transhumanism or “post” singularitarianism?
Is anything more that hasn’t already been discussed even possible, even in theory?
Are transhumanists running out of fresh talking points?
If yes, there’s always the possibiity of moving on to implementation… :)
Michael; is it possible that as we humans increased in capacity our range also increased? That is to say, our predecessors were less intelligent than we, certainly — but only when measured at second-order derivative.
Perhaps if you revised your proposed definition to:
“Superintelligence: A form of intelligence whose general intelligence is as far above the upper bound of humanity as is the upper bound of humanity above the upper bound of its evolutionary predecessor.”
I think this retains your purpose but averts the criticism so far proposed.
Social skills doesn’t seem to be a relevant criteria, as the first comment notes humans might be bad at socialising with heidelbergensis. But in a more general sense, the ability to interact with animals (which some people have and some people lack) doesn’t seem to matter when considering that humans are superior to animals.
Also the ability to socialise with others of it’s kind need not be a criteria, a lot of the discussion of superintelligence seems to implicitly assume that there will be only one such being. That seems like a bad assumption to me but we can’t rule it out or claim that a being is not superintelligent because they have no peers.
Also beyond a certain difference the term “social skills” seems to lack relevance. It’s not unreasonable or abnormal for a human to consider a dog their friend, but to have an animal that is less intelligent than a pet dog or cat as a friend would not be normal. When superintelligent beings have an intelligence differential with humans that exceeds the difference between humans and household pets there will not be a possibility of socialising. It will merely be a matter of the superintelligent beings figuring out how to manipulate humans with the least possible effort.
Ian, I like the redefinition very much, thank you. I’ll try to use it in future posts.
Tom James: Your flint-knapping skillz are at this time *de facto* inferior to that of a Paleolithic individual merely (or, at least, primarily) due to your not having learned, practiced and perfected the technique(s). I conjecture that the variance-range—i.e., in terms of innate proclivity to learn and be good at flint-knapping—is approx. the same for garden-variety contemporary humans as it would be among earlier, pre-modern proto-humans. There’s an anthropologist at UT-Austin who can flint-chip and flint-knapp with the best of ‘em, e.g. (The surely was at least *some* specialization along individual talent/proclivity lines even back in prehistoric time; though, on the other hand, not unlike Australian Aboriginies, one might have been trained as a jack-of-all “trades” and expected to be reasonably proficient at most or all of ‘em.) I used to be fairly proficient at it myself, but—unlike bike-riding—it’s a “use it or lose it” sort of skill; and I haven’t done any flint-knapping in quite a while, so I might be piss-poor at it now…
Ian Conrad (and Michael A.): Yes that is very good encapsulation, Ian; superb. I’d like to offer yet another slight modification that I think we should us, both as a “baseline” concept and as a “bridge” concept(ion) with which to launch discussions with not-quite-transhumanists: “Superintelligence: A form of intelligence whose general intelligence is AT LEAST as far above the upper bound of humanity as is the upper bound of humanity above the upper bound of its evolutionary predecessor.”
My reason for throwing in the “at least” is to explicitly make (conceptual, imaginative) room, so to speak, *right off the bat*, for far-far-greater-than-human general intelligence. Otherwise, though, yes, indeed, Ian, you’ve nailed it splendidly, kid-o! ;)
Ciao for now…
The rate of progress and intelligence might not be ties to evolution as closely as we think (I think it is, I’m just having fun and playing devils advocate.) Consider this:
A person raised with no language or in almost vomplete constant isolation (which has happened) will not grow up to be a normal, functional person, even their brains look different (we see this in chimps as well.)
What if, instead of a major change in how the brain function, there was a kind of social parading shift, or rather, and intellectual shift, what if they just started thinking in a different way, which eventually grew into advanced communication, social structures, and the foundation of society as we know it.
Probably not, considering current evidence (plus, a certain degree of intelligence would be needed for it could be improved upon.) Still, fun to think about.
- Ryan Alger
I, too, like the definition in terms of upper bounds, or at least the top 0.1%.
It would not surprise me if were to end up using a very simple measure when it comes to testing. How about earning a perfect score on the Mega test (or some other high-IQ test) in 1/10th the time needed by the smartest humans, and in the remaining time writing an original essay with an eye to literary style on a subtle and emotionally fraught topic such as Rembrandt’s self-portraits?
Ryan: Instead of a complete social change among average humans (which is what you seem to be discussing), what about a society comprising only humans who are a few standard deviations above the mean. If you raised children who scored >160 on the IQ tests in an environment where such scores were average and regarded as average and you had a suitable educational environment for them then the results would probably be very noteworthy.
I think that a social shift for people who have a genetic predisposition for high intelligence could give results that would meet the lesser definitions of super-intelligence.
But I don’t think that someone who was genetically predisposed to have an IQ of 100 in our society would meet the definition no matter what society they were raised in.
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