The Chilly Frontier: Antarctica, Greenland, and Elsewhere Sunday, Apr 5 2009
futurism 11:12 am
One of my frequent yarns as a futurist is that mankind’s future lies in virtual reality, underground, the oceans, the mountains, the deserts, and Antarctica, not space.
Most of the world’s surface is uncolonized. Siberia is largely empty. The oceans are entirely uncolonized. Much of the central United States is highly rural. Most of Canada is empty. Patagonia is cold and unpopulated, with population densities around 2.0 per km2. Australia has just 21 million people spread out over almost 3 million square miles. Antarctica, which would have been an amazing place to be in the Mesozoic, and could become amazing again, is occupied by only around 1,000 scientists. Greenland, which will become the world’s newest country in June 2009, has a land area of about 830,000 square miles, but a population of only 57,000.
“Cold” is relative. Want to make Antarctica habitable? Throw down a concrete foundation, put soil on top, cover it with a dome and numerous heaters. Poof, instant Antarctic city. Use vertical farming or direct synthesis for food. (This is a vision that would probably only be made possible with the technology of 2030 at the earliest, probably more like 2060, unless there’s a Singularity and everything goes out the window.) Find a way to artificially generate light that mimics sunlight. Give people implants like subdermal heaters that make “cold” not seem so cold anymore, and parents will begin to let their children run around and play outside. (Unless there’s a blizzard, though a network of underground tunnels combined with accurate forecasting could minimize that risk.)
Speaking of artificial sunlight, in due time it seems likely that we will carve out vast underground caverns and live in them by the billions. This could be done on several levels, constrained primarily by the temperature at greater depths and the structural stability of the lithosphere. We could reinforce these underground caverns with mass-produced fullerenes. There is roughly 36,000 gigatonnes of carbon available to do this with. More carbon could be imported from carbonaceous asteroids. The asteroid belt contains carbon equivalent to more than 1% the mass of the Moon, which is approximately 7 × 1011 gigatonnes.
The Pacific Ocean is covered with about 25,000 islands, which are basically huge mountains with their tops pointing out of the water. These could all be carved out and turned into wonderful subterranean gardens with brilliant artificial days and serene artificial nights. Display technologies like phase array optics could convey images of the true night sky in realtime. Images of real shooting stars could be projected on these perfectly realistic screens only microseconds after the event actually occurs. It would be impossible to tell the difference.
Humanity and all biodiversity is a two-dimensional film on the surface of the Earth. This is such a waste of a beautiful planet. We should build our civilization dozens of miles into the sky and at least a few miles underground. We can bring ample biodiversity with us, constructing megascale arcologies. With personal flight technologies and embedded intelligent systems to prevent us from slamming into each other, we could feel free to fly from miles underground to altitudes above Mt. Everest in something like half an hour.
Space is an inherent hazard because of the eventual risk that a nutcase will drop an asteroid or other heavy object on us. Therefore, it seems likely that space exploration and development will be placed under high scrutiny and surveillance. Getting into space may eventually be easy, but heavy development will likely be subjected to much red tape. Unless every space developer willingly subjects themselves to brain implants that allow a security program to scan their thoughts for maliciousness, we will willingly self-limit how many people have access to unrestricted space technologies.




If you study the history of computer security then the last thing that you will want is computers embedded in people’s brains with a common software base. Every computer system that is available gets cracked! The process of scanning for malicious thoughts seem like something that can not easily be done in isolation, it would need updates in terms of new threat models and would have to recognise bad associations which means communicating with other nodes.
Such communication opens the software to attack.
Now even if the brain implant was not designed to control the actions of the victim (which seems unlikely given the tendencies of government agencies that would contemplate such an idea) it would still have good potential for blackmail. If it was subverted so that it would not perform it’s intended function then it allows the possibility of blackmailing someone into making a “mistake” that allows an asteroid to go off-course.
For a long time the US military has had a procedure of having humans in the loop before any weapon is fired. This is due to the observation that humans are less likely to get things seriously wrong, humans in suitably sized and selected groups are even less likely to go badly wrong. I believe that this policy has been changing recently – and the results have often been bad.
I agree. Why do we seek to conquer space when there are still parts of Earth that remain unexplored?
I’ve been predicting really large, nuclear powered floating cities offering tax-sheltered citizenship to an elite, affluent subset of humanity, a sort of ‘Atlas Shrugged’ society withdrawing from dysfunction, failed nation-states. And I mean REALLY big. Seems almost inevitable, really.
http://www.tdrinc.com/nexus.html
Don: Nexus is one example of a group of people planning this. There have been others, does anyone have good links?
Previously Michael has made some good points about space being inhospitable. It seems to me that his arguments about the difficulty of space colonies also largely apply to floating sea colonies.
There are already places where there is almost no tax. There are other places where most laws only apply to “poor” people (which includes most readers of this blog who although being wildly rich by global standards aren’t wealthy by the standards of Monaco etc).
Why would any rich person want to go to the effort of building a new country at sea, facing obstacles related to the development of new technology and some risk, when they could just buy themself the legal options that they want in a small Eastern European country?
Modern technology has allowed great improvements in the standard of living without servants (I have heard a claim that a lifestyle equivalent to the current middle-class American family would have required 50 slaves in the mid 1800′s). But it doesn’t allow really high quality of living without servants. There are hotels where you make your own bed and “restaurants” like McDonalds where you take the food to your table. But the standard of living is notably higher if you have someone make your bed, bring food to your table, and clean up every mess you make.
So if we have a 1:1 ratio of rich people to servants (which doesn’t seem unreasonably large – I think that most of the super-rich have more than that) and each servant has two dependants (an average of one life-partner and one child) then the rich will be in a minority. Then you need security services (one of the plans for a floating city involved 2,000 security people recruited from law enforcement organisations) and you end up with a complete state.
In such a state you could discard people when they lose their jobs. But if you want to easily hire people (given that they have to give up their old home when they sign up) then some sort of social-security would need to be offered.
Of course there’s nothing stopping you from living permanently on a cruise ship right now. I’m sure that if you wanted to sign up for a permanent cabin on the QE2 or some similar vessel then they would be happy to accommodate you. But I suspect that most people would find that they need things from a city that such ships don’t provide.
Back to Michael’s post: A city built on the ocean floor not far from the shore is a viable option with today’s technology, as is extending an island or building underground. Ship cities are a little more challenging and apart from cruise liners have not really been done before.
Call me old-fashioned, but there is a already a mythological city, built on several levels below ground. I definitely don’t want to live there.
Do not take for granted the social stability of virtual worlds. So far, the results of engineering attempts are not impressive. In germany, dozens of laws are passed every day, with largely unpredictable results.
Your last paragraph makes an excellent argument for having a genetically robust number of humans off planet.
Orbital heliostats maybe? There’s a pesky geoengineering problem with this concept, though.
Truth be told, in the near term future we’re very likely going to be seeing much more of the world going fallow, despite the increasing population. Truth be told, I highly doubt we’ll ever see 12 billion people living on the planet Earth in meat-space. I just don’t see it happening. We’re already expected to peak a 9B sometime around 2050. At that same point in time, somewhere between 60% and 80% of the human race should be living in urban environments. Considering the reducing costs of high-scale construction and the efforts to engineer vertical farming (and meat tissue culturing) — I see a strong case being made for the elimination of much our cultivated land practices, in favor of much lower energy-and-resource intensive practices.
Just a few thoughts. :)
What’s wrong with good old-fashioned high pressure sodium lamps, and/or arrays of various spectra of LEDs?
@Justin: Energy input, for one. :)
Space access will be restricted because some nutjob might drop an asteroid on us? What nonsense! If it would be easy to bring an asteroid on a collision course with earth it would also be easy to deflect the asteroid or destroy it.
And please stop your inane ramblings about underground caverns, Michael. It won’t happen but we will spread out into space whether you like it or not. Sheesh…
Caverns, I say.
Russel, surely you’re acquainted with Patri Friedman’s Seasteading Institute? They’re my bet for the most likely to actually get somebody living on a floating system in the next five years.
The sad thing is that some people believe that you know what you’re talking about when it’s obvious that you’re pretty much clueless. You’re a hack, plain and simple.
“Find a way to artificially generate light that mimics sunlight. Give people implants like subdermal heaters that make “cold” not seem so cold anymore, and parents will begin to let their children run around and play outside. (Unless there’s a blizzard, though a network of underground tunnels combined with accurate forecasting could minimize that risk.)”
Were you high when you wrote this drivel? xD
Olympics 2030: Antarctica City. Mascot: Icey the Icicle.
Heh, you have a good stadium name?
Of course space exploration should continue. Having settlements spread out in far-flung, extreme locations on Earth could prove useful for theoretical atmospheric and aquatic weather manipulation technologies. It would be neat if the Earth’s balance restoration could be assisted and the process could be tamed somewhat. As for the floating cities, and those placed near land, what about hurricanes and events to that effect? If they can’t yet be placed on the seafloor, might they be able to be suspended at a safer depth until further advances permit their descent? Like this (sort of): http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Submerged_floating_tunnel
Yeah, I like it! Humans living under ground, under water, on the water, in the air, in orbit and on the moon. What a wonderful time we will all have…that is, unless the only way to have all of that is with a police state; where being a human means that you are automatically conscripted as a ‘crewman’ on the great Spaceship Earth and only the military is allowed to move crewmen between the planets. Anyone else will be Waporized!
Do you have a “top posters” page to reward your best blog comments?
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