Bookstore Open Wednesday, May 13 2009
meta 9:54 am
I created an Amazon bookstore for this blog, which has some of my favorite books and a few I haven’t read but have heard good things about and will read soon. (Like the Hume.)
As far as books you might not have, Moral Machines is really good, as is House of Cards, which gives psychology and psychotherapy a spanking. Robyn Dawes is one of my favorite thinkers in the field of heuristics and biases. I will never forget how impressed I was when I read his paper about how simple mathematical models outperformed doctors on diagnosing a variety of medical problems. In the experiments, doctors were consistently overconfident and overweighted certain variables even they knew very well those variables were not that relevant. It also changed my opinion about the feasibility of AI — most people are not aware of this literature and would probably think that a multi-exabyte human would routinely outperform a kilobyte-sized model, though that isn’t the case in many domains.
In my opinion, the field of heuristics and biases is so relevant to AI research that I find it difficult to take any AI researcher seriously that isn’t at least somewhat familiar with it. Also in the field of heuristics and biases, I recommend Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart, and it’s interesting how the presentation of heuristics and biases here varies here from the traditional pessimism about humans in much of that literature. Instead of emphasizing where heuristics go wrong, Gigerenzer emphasizes the success of simple models. But why do we consistently use kilobyte strategies in our exabyte brains?
I put Enough and Beyond Therapy on there because they’re the gold standard in transhumanist criticisms. A one-two punch, from the left and right, if you will. I think most people will find that the transhumanist philosophy still stands very resolutely and easily after these token assaults.
I put The Golden Age on there because it’s my favorite sci-fi book. I read it the summer before my first transhumanist conference (Transvision 2003), where I gave my first talk (on the Singularity, of course — feel free to give a shout-out if you were in the audience) and met many people that I still associate with, like Aubrey, Eliezer, James H., Michael Vassar, et al., so some sentimentality is associated with it in my mind.

May 13th, 2009 at 12:12 pm
Well, now I have a one-stop shop for most of my reading needs.
I’ve already read The Golden Age trilogy about ten thousand times, though. Too bad Wright turned into a Christian apologist and turned to writing idiotic fantasy novels that make the Harry Potter books look like Against the Fall of Night.
May 13th, 2009 at 12:31 pm
Hi Michael,
Great that you’ve opened your own bookstore.
I’m sure we will find many interesting readings will be added in the future.
Looking forward especially for sci-fi books.
One tipp, it might be trivial and perhaps your already planning it but you should place an prominent link to the store on the page of your blog.
May 13th, 2009 at 5:11 pm
Hi Michael.
You & I have read almost all of the same books. I’ve never heard of Robyn Dawes before. If what you suggest about the innefficiency of human thinking is accurate then I’ll have to reconsider my objection to the plausibility of the hard take off scenario. I’ll make time to read Dawes.
Thanks for the suggestion.
May 13th, 2009 at 6:18 pm
When we are reading these books, are we actually reading about a reality that we will some day know as the present and the past?
Much of futurism sounds like science fiction and it’s hard to tell the difference. How’s Kurzweil doing with his predictions - more hits than misses? Are there other futurists who have been spectacularly right or wrong? Anyone worth paying attention to in addition to (or instead of) Kurzweil?
May 13th, 2009 at 10:02 pm
Inkywood, no, no one knows the future for sure. The few futurists I link just have a few ideas, and you apply your own reason to them and determine how likely you personally think their scenarios are. It is impossible for them to get everything right, but it is very likely that they (the futurists I point to) are getting at least a few things right.
The people I think that are worth paying attention to in addition to Kurzweil are the ones I link in my bookstore…
May 14th, 2009 at 1:53 am
John C. Wright is really a shocking case of how people can change dramatically, even at the age of 42.
You can read about it here on his blog in his own words:
http://johncwright.livejournal.com/59241.html
He saw Mary and even spoke to her!
“It was not some vague light or misty sensation I met, but people to whom I spoke, a ghost, an apostle, the Madonna, the Paraclete, the Messiah, and the Father. The Holy Spirit entered my soul, I felt it happen, and something changed inside me…I have seen visions and experienced miracles, seen prayers answered, and had things even stranger happen.”
This very much looks like something pathological, maybe a cerebral hemorrhage or stroke?
May 14th, 2009 at 7:39 am
Do not underestimate the power of the Dark Meme.
I find your lack of faith disturbing.
“An embarassment of evidence; overwhelming; overkill.”
I know a place where they’d be interested in such things… but nah… you know how it always works.
When I was reading his testimony I was going Holy C++, Holy C++, this is NOT EVEN WRONG.
June 4th, 2009 at 11:53 pm
I loved the Golden Age trilogy, but it was clear to me from the way he used language and from his imagery that he had psychotic tendencies. I’m not surprised to hear now that he saw the light (of his brain misfiring).
About why we need our exabyte brains - we need them to evaluate which kilobyte strategy to use in novel situations.