Speculations Concerning the First Ultraintelligent Machine Tuesday, May 12 2009
singularity 7:46 am
I uploaded I.J. Good’s classic paper “Speculations Concerning the First Ultraintelligent Machine” to the Accelerating Future server because I saw that mainstream sources were linking it at the Internet Archive, which is just silly.
In the paper, Good writes:
The survival of man depends on the early construction of an ultra-intelligent machine.
I don’t doubt it. But be careful how you construct it, or the ultra-intelligent machine will end the survival of man.
Great! It would be good to fill in those images in mathematical equations … maybe Robert Bradbury can provide them?
The survival of man depends on the cultivation of emotional maturity, creative thinking and self-control on the part of a healthy fraction of the world population.
And maybe a cognitive boost (for everyone) equal to 2 or 3 SDs of today’s IQ distribution.
It’s in big pdf with equations at http://www.stat.org.vt.edu/dept/web-e/tech_reports/TechReport05-3.pdf .
Also here: http://www.aeiveos.com:8080/~bradbury/Authors/Computing/Good-IJ/SCtFUM.html
By adding in the “8080″ you can still access all of Bradbury’s site, I think.
Lots of good stuff available from here, which doesn’t seem to be linked on his home page. Highly recommended.
be careful how you construct it, or the ultra-intelligent machine will end the survival of man
Omohundro’s concerns aside, there are few reasons to think this will happen. But let’s say for the sake of argument that
super intelligent, super rational machines would consider humans a threat to the universe. Why are you automatically assuming we may not *deserve* to be destroyed in that case?
I say build the super intelligent machines and let the chips fall where they may. In fact I don’t think there’s an alternative to that approach. Seems unsupportable and presumptuous to assume that our feeble early efforts will influence the ultimate superintelligent outcome more than a tiny bit. All we can influence is how soon this happens.
That’s great but the following link is dead:
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Not Found
The requested URL /ultraintelligentmachine.html was not found on this server.
Additionally, a 404 Not Found error was encountered while trying to use an ErrorDocument to handle the request.
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THANKFULLY -
This link is fine: http://www.aeiveos.com/~bradbury/Authors/Computing/Good-IJ/SCtFUM.html
It would be good to have a few duplicate pages online, so perhaps “/ultraintelligentmachine.html” can be fixed?
The link was lost as a result of a change to the URL hierarchy (perhaps a change to the redirect method to suppress /pages/ and /category/ URL segments). Whatever… the correct link is now http://www.acceleratingfuture.com/pages/ultraintelligentmachine.html
I am glad I found an HTML version of this paper (which, is not nearly as insightful as Feynman’s 1959 “There is PLENTY of Room at the Bottom”).