There is still a great amount of disagreement in the community over whether uploads or AGI are more likely to occur first. I would like to solicit probability distributions and statements from interested parties on the relative likelihood of either route reaching human-equivalent intelligence first. Please send your probability distribution values, including mean and standard deviations, to michaelanissimov at g mail dot com, coupled with a well-written, well-edited statement of 400 or more words, and a short official bio and link to your CV (if applicable). Please include at least 3-5 citations in your argument, and please make it as academic as possible. The final results will be published on a web page at AcceleratingFuture.com, and may make it into a journal if the results are good enough.
The operating definition of intelligence to be used during this exercise is that given by Shane Legg in his PhD thesis Machine Superintelligence:
Intelligence measures an agent’s ability to achieve goals in a wide range of environments.
Good luck! By the power of Aumann, may our probability estimates converge closer to the truth as a result of this exercise.
The academic philosophers who are reading — you know who you are — if you only make one comment on Accelerating Future all year, make it a contribution to this exercise. Thank you for your time.