In 1985, Ray Solomonoff offered his thoughts on six milestones in AI and the economic and technological growth that might be expected when generally intelligent AI is developed. The paper is called “The Time Scale of Artificial Intelligence: Reflections on Social Effects”.
Here is the abstract:
Six future milestones in AI are discussed. These range from the development of a very general theory of problem solving to the creation of machines with capacities well beyond those of a single human. Estimates are made for when these milestones will occur, followed by some suggestions for the more effective utilization of the extremely rapid technological growth that is expected.
When I read lines like that last sentence, what I see nowadays is “extremely scary technological growth”. Rapid growth is scary when that growth is controlled by systems that may not optimize reality in ways that we explicitly value. (See “The Future of Human Evolution” for an explanation.)
A select milestone:
Milestone C. A critical point in AI development would be a machine that could usefully work on the …