Singularity Quote from Eliezer Yudkowsky
So let’s say you have an Artificial Intelligence that thinks enormously faster than a human. How does that affect our world? Well, hypothetically, the AI solves the protein folding problem. And then emails a DNA string to an online service that sequences the DNA, synthesizes the protein, and fedexes the protein back. The proteins self-assemble into a biological machine that builds a machine that builds a machine and then a few days later the AI has full-blown molecular nanotechnology.
So what might an Artificial Intelligence do with nanotechnology? Feed the hungry? Heal the sick? Help us become smarter? Instantly wipe out the human species? Probably it depends on the specific makeup of the AI. See, human beings all have the same cognitive architecture. We all have a prefrontal cortex and limbic system and so on. If you imagine a space of all possible minds, then all human beings are packed into one small dot in mind design space. And then Artificial Intelligence is literally everything else. “AI†just means “a mind that does not work like we doâ€. So you can’t ask “What will an AI do?†as if all AIs formed a natural kind. There is more than one possible AI.
The impact, of the intelligence explosion, on our world, depends on exactly what kind of minds go through the tipping point.
I would seriously argue that we are heading for the critical point of all human history. Modifying or improving the human brain, or building strong AI, is huge enough on its own. When you consider the intelligence explosion effect, the next few decades could determine the future of intelligent life.
So this is probably the single most important issue in the world. Right now, almost no one is paying serious attention. And the marginal impact of additional efforts could be huge. My nonprofit, the Singularity Institute, is trying to get things started in this area. My own work deals with the stability of goals in self-modifying AI, so we can build an AI and have some idea of what will happen as a result. There’s more to this issue, but I’m out of time. If you’re interested in any of this, please talk to me, this problem needs your attention. Thank you.
-- Eliezer Yudkowsky, 5 Minute Singularity Intro
io9 Continues to Perpetuate Ridiculous “IBM Simulated a Cat Brain” Meme
In a recent post at io9, Esther Inglis-Arkell perpetuates the stupid claim that IBM successfully simulated a cat cortex in a computer, which the site made right after it happened. Doesn't anyone consider it odd that we have supposedly simulated a cat's brain, but full-resolution simulations of the brains of lower animals, including insects, are nowhere to be found? There isn't even a simulation of a flatworm that displays behavioral isomorphism to a real flatworm. Behavioral isomorphism is something we would expect from a real simulation.
That the writers and editors of io9 don't even question this news item shows that their knowledge of the technology they write about is very poor. This is what happens when you focus too hard on pop culture -- there's no time for real science reading. The end result is poor coverage and the perpetuation of obviously false memes. Perhaps io9 should stick to covering sketches of Wookies and UFOs, and leave science/AI reporting to others.
Shortly after IBM's announcement, computational neuroscientist Henry Markram at EFPL's Blue Brain project called the announcement a "hoax", which I covered in November 2009. I'm not sure whether I would call it a "hoax" myself, but I do think that Dharmenda Modhi's website and announcement were deliberately created to mislead the media into thinking his team had simulated a cat brain, rather than merely creating a cat-SCALE simulation of point neurons without even one thousandth the complexity of real neurons. The key science result was the observation of oscillations in the neural network, which is trivial. It is presented as profound. What is also not mentioned is that Prof. Eugene Izhikevich has already created similar models with as many as a hundred billion point neurons, therefore "human-scale" neural net simulations already exist. Such investigation is apparently beyond the capabilities of the teams running the Internet's pop-sci blogging community.
Read Henry Markram's comments on why IBM's announcement is profoundly misleading.
Bruce Sterling and Cory Doctorow Link “Christianity vs. Transhumanism”
There are links to Tom Horn's recent open letter from both Beyond the Beyond and Boing Boing, two of the Internet's most popular blogs.
It was also picked up by Bioethics.com.
The First Singularitarian?
Here's an interesting quote I got forwarded... claimed to be the "earliest known expression of the idea of self improving AI" from this tongue-in-cheek article in the Primitive Expounder in 1847:
"A Thinking Machine! Yes, we can now have our thinking done for us by machinery! The Editor of the Common School Advocate says—"
On our way to Cincinnati, a few days since, we stopped over night where a gentleman from the city was introducing a machine which he said was designed to supercede the necessity and labor of thinking. It was highly and respectably recommended, by men too in high places, and is designed for a calculator, to save the trouble of all mathematical labor. By turning the machinery it produces correct results in addition, substraction, multiplication, and division, and the operator assured us that it was equally useful in fractions and the higher mathematics." The Editor thinks that such machines, by which the scholar may, by turning a crank, grind out the solution of a problem without the fatigue of mental application, would by its introduction into schools, do incalculable injury, But who knows that such machines when brought to greater perfection, may not think of a plan to remedy all their own defects and then grind out ideas beyond the ken of mortal mind!"
Turn the crank, and out comes ideas "beyond the ken of mortal mind!"
Personalized Life Extension Conference Reminder
Registration for the Personalized Life Extension conference, hosted by Christine Peterson, goes up in cost this Saturday, so register ASAP for the lowest price. I suggest using the discount code "SIAI" for $100 off. See you soon in Burlingame!
Raiders News Networks Highlights My Comments to Tom Horn
The front page story at the Christian conspiracy theorist news website Raiders News Network is titled, "Media Director for Singularity Institute puts Tom Horn in spotlight, agrees transhumanism is threat to traditional Judeo-Christian values". What fun!
Here's my quote that was highlighted:
"Horn sees transhumanism as threatening traditional Judeo-Christian values. Can’t argue with that."
— Michael Anissimov, Media Director for the Singularity Institute and Co-Organizer of the Singularity Summit
It is important to note that transhumanism does not threaten all traditional Judeo-Christian values, just some of them. It threatens values similar to the way that science in general does. It does not threaten the value of "respect thy neighbor" or "be nice to others", but perhaps values like, "if you marry a girl who claims she is a virgin, and she's not, then you ought to stone her", and other gems from Leviticus.
Horn invokes the writings of recently retired AI researcher Hugo de Garis, which predict a war between transhumanists ("Cosmists") and anti-transhumanists ("Terrans") that causes billions of deaths. I doubt that will happen because most anti-transhumanists are skeptical that transhumanist technologies will work, and by the time they do, it will be too late. Generation Y will also be in charge by then, and Generation Y is hardly as freaked out by the possibilities of the future as older generations tend to be. As Jamais Cascio has said, "the future is anything invented after you were 10".
Because of negative comments in the thread of my last post, Horn now presents his trailer video as "the video trailer that upset transhumanists". Here's a good quote from near the beginning of his post:
Due to the threat of such technological Armageddon, de Garis believes the twenty-first century should be dominated by a debate surrounding whether humanity should or should not build artilects, i.e., machines of godlike intelligence.
Because the social upheaval de Garis envisions may now be entering its ideological phase, and transhumanism and human enhancement is a concern to me regardless, recently I issued an Open Letter To Christian Leaders On Biotechnology And The Future Of Man in which I encouraged conservatives to get involved in this discussion while they can. The same week, a trailer for my upcoming new book Forbidden Gates was posted at YouTube and evidently hit a nerve with the folks at the popular futurist blog Accelerating Future, run by Michael Anissimov, Media Director for the Singularity Institute.
I get a couple page response for only posting a few sentences; pretty good deal! Another quote:
The posts on Mr. Anissimov's blog illustrate the breaking ideological war de Garis sees coming. Most of the comments are profane, personal, hate-filled and ill-informed. The same pejorative entries on our YouTube channel were immediately deleted, as such comments always are. The few exceptions among the reader comments at Accelerating Future that did not contain personal attacks or profanity included one person who found it disturbing that I am “articulate.†He/she hopes I get rectal cancer and die. Nice.
By "posts" he means "comments". Mr. Horn, could you please update that so your readers don't get the impression that it was my posts that are profane or hate-filled?
When people like Lassus make nasty anonymous comments like below, guess who gets flak for it? The entire transhumanist community, that's who.
I watched the videos. Totally depressing. Whats worse, the guy is articulate, but he has but the flimsiest grasp of all the stuff he talks about.
Uber-religious, science-phobic, retrograde, truly luddite fear mongerers.
Let them get rectal cancer and hope praying magically cures them, that’ll put things in perspective ill wager.
This is just a kneejerk negative response. Next time someone has something confrontational like this to say, why not use your real name, instead of hiding behind an alias? So many people on the Internet hide behind aliases because they are terrified of being accountable for what they say. When people take personal responsibility for their statements, they think more carefully and diplomatically before speaking. When people have a history of accomplishments, they are careful not to say things that will reflect negatively on their character and destroy the good will they have built up. When people are anonymous or have nothing to lose, they can say whatever crap they want, and other people will ultimately be forced to take responsibility for them, like an adult has to take responsibility when their child hits a baseball that breaks a window. Saying "let them get rectal cancer" to someone is obviously childish and inappropriate.
Speaking of which, the phrase "ill-informed", "flimsiest grasp", etc., have all become meaningless, because they are used so casually. It's too easy, sometimes, to call people "ill-informed" when what you simply mean is that they haven't read exactly what you like them to.
Transhumanists that are shocked, angry, afraid, or otherwise emotionally aroused by Tom Horn, Leon Kass, Dale Carrico or whoever else are merely showing their own excitability. These easily perturbed persons are likely male nerds aged 15-25 who are transitioning to adulthood and have never had a really good reason to be very polite to anyone, so they aren't experienced at it. That's my wild theory, anyway. They may also be older males, part of the sociopolitical fringe of society who never get enough attention from the people with power that they have given up and don't even bother sounding reasonable.
Please -- to that minority of you that has to react negatively -- don't rush to ideological war so soon. It's not fair to me because I become indirectly responsible for your comments. It's not fair to transhumanism because it puts us in a confrontational position with our critics when we don't have to be.
Horn says:
Anissimov himself appears to have kept his comments professional, which was admirable. I experienced this same type professionalism when interviewing Dr. Hughes on my radio show and when I was on his.
Thank you! What distinguishes the enlightened portion of the blogosphere from the ignorant masses of Fark, Reddit, and Digg is our ability to think independently -- not as part of the trollgeek horde, and to take responsibility for our statements by adding our name to them.
Horn wrote:
After all, transhumanism is not just about enhancing humans. It is a replacement theology, which could ultimately supplant traditional Christianity as the dominant religion in the United States in years to come if pastors fail to be preachers of the Gospel.
Michael Anissimov evidently agrees: “Horn sees transhumanism as threatening traditional Judeo-Christian values. Can’t argue with that.â€
Although most transhumanists, especially early on, were secular atheists and would have had little resemblance to prototypical “people of faith,†in the last few years, the exclusion of supernaturalism in favor of rational empiricism has softened as the movement’s exponential popularity has swelled to include a growing number of Gnostic Christians, Buddhists, Mormons, Islam, Raelianism, and other religious traditions among its devotees. From among these groups, new tentative “churches†arose—the Church of Virus, the Society for Universal Immortalism, Transtopianism, the Church of Mez, the Society for Venturism, the Church of the Fulfillment, Singularitarianism, and others.
Not really, Mr. Horn. Do you realize that all of these so-called "Churches" are dead as doornails? The Church of Virus website has not been updated since the mid nineties. Transtopia is truly dead. I've never heard a transhumanist ever mention the Society for Universal Immortalism. The "Church of Mez" is a light-hearted joke (in the tradition of Discordianism) by Ramez Naam, ostensibly created with a Burning Man audience in mind, and has been shut down since 2003. Society for Venturism consists of only a few people. Cryonicists like to claim association with it because it lets them claim that their religious beliefs shield them from autopsy. I've never heard of the Church of the Fulfillment. In fact, a Google search for it only turns up the Raiders News Network. Mr. Horn, did you make that up? Singularitarianism is not a Church, or anything vaguely like it.
As far as I know, there is only one transhumanist that consistently argues publicly that transhumanism should be religious: Guilio Prisco. That's one out of thousands. If you know another one, tell me. Ben Goertzel might make some nuanced comment in the direction of a transhumanist spirituality, but I doubt he would call it a "religion". "Religion" fundamentally means trusting in some old dusty book as the absolute truth and having faith in invisible and/or untestable entities or processes. James Hughes and George Dvorsky have outlined some parallels between Buddhism and transhumanism, and Lincoln Cannon has outlined parallels between Mormonism and transhumanism. But isolated arguments of parallels between transhumanism and X does not mean that transhumanism is X. I could draw parallels between Nazism and liberal democracy if I wanted, that wouldn't make X = Y.
Mr. Horn says that transhumanism threatens religion, but so does science in general! Stephen Hawking himself has recently argued that cosmology requires no Creator to explain the origin of the universe, highlighting a rift between science and religion. Outside the self-contradicting enigma that is the Templeton Foundation, all efforts to bridge science and religion are token efforts at best, and require liberal watering down of one or the other to achieve any kind of uneasy synergy. If I were a dedicated theist, as I was as a child, I would want to crush and/or regulate all science, because that would be the only way I could see to maintain religion's strangehold on the mind of the masses. Christian parents are particularly fond of restricting the information sources of their children, because they know that Christianity cannot compete in the modern memetic ecology. Only through careful quarantining can the belief system perpetuate itself, like an immunocompromised lab rat that must be carefully shielded from germs to survive. A single inspiring science book can turn a religious child into an atheist for good. Once people become atheists, they rarely turn back, unless they lapse into drug abuse or prison and are looking for a source of spiritual strength.
Is the Singularity a religion? No, for the reasons listed here. Profound uncertainty and a lack of any dominant central guru (or in many cases, organization of any type) are two obvious clues that this is a non-religious area.
Horn quotes Katherine Hayles, then says:
Thus the gauntlet is thrown down and a holy war declared by the new apostles of a transhuman faith. We who were created in His image will either adapt and be assimilated to posthuman, or be replaced by Nephilim 2.0 and the revival of their ancient mystery religion.
The gauntlet is not thrown down. You can't quote an anti-transhumanist and then say that transhumanists have thrown down the gauntlet. This is not a holy war, so much as the millionth iteration of the age-old war between Science and Religion. It's just more exciting to highlight transhumanists, because we tend to be way more interesting and colorful than your typical representatives of science. In fact, most scientists are just boring. I say this as someone whose career has primarily consisted of science writing and interacts with scientists every day.
More:
This solidifies how, the more one probes into the ramifications of merging unnatural creations and nonbiological inventions according to the transhumanist scheme of seamlessly recalibrating humanity, a deeper malaise emerges, one that suggests those startling “parallels†between modern technology and ancient Watchers activity may be no coincidence at all—that, in fact, a dark conspiracy is truly unfolding as it did “in the days of Noah.â€
Free association is the universal crutch of the conspiracy theorist. "Startling parallels" is a cliche phrase, used so often that it's more of a testament to Homo sapiens' ancient bad habit of being fooled by randomness. The ranting homeless person on the street sees connections between everything. The hallmark of superior intelligence is the ability to break things down and consider them separately.
It's so pathetic how critics of transhumanism imply that we are part of some dark conspiracy. In fact, we are barely organized, and have to push hard to have any relevant impact on the pace or direction of technology development. Transhumanists barely even meet with each other, so how could it be much of a conspiracy? If I were to grant Mr. Horn access to a 24-7 video feed of the activities of the "leading" transhumanists, and he watched them with great diligence, I think he would be profoundly underwhelmed by the lack of Satanic plot or conspiracies. Actually, all modern life is mostly an exercise in mundaneity, peppered only sparsely with ridges and peaks. The boredom and routine of everyday life is what compels people to invent fantastic conspiracies. It compels us to invent divine beings that care about our every move, otherwise we would can become aghast at our insignificance in the universe.
There may be some spirituality on offer from transhumanist ideas, but it should be kept as personal as possible, to avoid taking on the characteristics of a religion. If spirituality has any place in human life (I believe it does), it should continue to have a place in transhuman life. The sublime, the exhilarating, the barely perceptible, the visions in your mind's eye that cannot be articulated to others -- though these interesting features of consciousness will one day be explained in their totality by reductionism, they are still fascinating phenomena that hold a special place in our lives. These phenomena will only get more highlighted and fantastic as we use technology to unlock their full potential, so we might as well continue to enjoy them while they are still mysterious! If that is "spirituality", so be it.
Forbidden Gates: GRIN Technology & Spiritual Warfare
H/t Aleksei Riikonen.
Partial transcript:
Now, from the bestselling authors of Apollyon Rising 2012, comes a new shocking non-fiction book the US government does not want you to read. With nearly 35 years of experience inside the largest evangelical institution in the world, including executive-level positions with responsibilities such as exorcism, Thomas and Nita Horn's newest book, "Forbidden Gate: How Genetics, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Synthetic Biology, Nanotechnology, and Human Enhancement Herald the Dawn of Techno-Dimensional Spiritual Warfare" will for the first time unveil the astonishing secrets unfolding in laboratories around the world. Where biology is being changed -- where creatures made of human DNA, beast DNA, and synthetic molecules are coming to life. How real is the danger?
The highest think tank at the US Pentagton, the Jasons, are afraid of them, and see their creation as the next arms race. DARPA's 2011 budget includes milions of dollars for the development of them. Applications necesary to make this nightmare reality are being funded by thousands of governments and private research laboratories around the world, and in so doing, potentially bridge a gap between humans and unseen intelligence -- a Forbbiden Gate -- to an ancient malevolent force known in the Bible as demons.
The idea of using technology to open a gate to the demon world reminds me of the video game Persona.
There's a lot more excitement at the website, ForbiddenGate.com. The site quotes Mark Dery:
“When the stars align, Cthulhu will rise again to resume His dominion over the Earth, ushering in an age of frenzied abandon. Humankind will be “free and wild and beyond good and evil, with laws and morals thrown aside and all men shouting and killing and reveling in joy.â€
—Transhumanist Mark Dery (celebrating the rise of H. P. Lovecraft’s cosmic monster)
Is Mark Dery really a transhumanist? Nice quote though.
Flattering Words from CounterPunch
...the singularity movement enjoys nearly universal praise from both conservative and progressive media outlets. Their futurist claims charm bloggers and reporters from across the political spectrum, from Forbes to the Daily Kos, from Wired Magazine to the Huffington Post.
These words make me happy, because Singularity awareness is important to me. It's relevant to note, however, that the Singularity movement is not a monolith; it contains quite a bit of internal complexity. One side claims that everything is going to be alright and success is more or less inevitable, and another side claims that the "default Singularity" is human extinction, and that urgent measures are required to survive.
Radio Theologian: “Time is Running Out to Influence Debate on Transhumanism”
Thomas Horn of the Raiders News Network, a radio show, recently issued a statement on ChristianNewsWire titled, "An Open Letter to Christian Leaders on Biotechnology and the Future of Man". Here's the beginning of the letter:
Theologian believes time is running out to influence debate on transhumanism
Dear Christian Leader,
In recent years, astonishing technological developments have pushed the frontiers of humanity toward far-reaching morphological transformation that promises in the very near future to redefine what it means to be human. An international, intellectual, and fast-growing cultural movement known as transhumanism, whose vision is supported by a growing list of U.S. military advisors, bioethicists, law professors, and academics, intends the use of biotechnology, genetic engineering, nanotechnology, cybernetics, and artificial intelligence as tools that will radically redesign our minds, our memories, our physiology, our offspring, and even perhaps -- as Joel Garreau, in his bestselling book "Radical Evolution", claims -- our very souls.
As a recent taxpayer funded US National Science Foundation Report suggests, the technological, cultural, and metaphysical shift now underway unapologetically forecasts a future dominated by this new species of unrecognizably superior humans, and applications under study now to make this dream a reality are being funded by thousands of government and private research facilities around the world.
Horn sees transhumanism as threatening traditional Judeo-Christian values. Can't argue with that.
Here's a video of Horn discussing transhumanism:
Horn's full letter is quite long. Feel free to leave your impression in the comments if you read the whole thing.
Can someone try to dig up that interview with James Hughes that he mentions? I can't find it.
He says that "Avatar carries a tremendous amount of transhumanist themes in it." I said that too, in my post "Transhumanism Has Already Won".
H+ “Journal”: Tentacle of the Illuminati
R.U. Sirius has a bit of fun responding to the recent CounterPunch article:
An article, a rant really, yesterday, in Counterpunch titled "If Only Glenn Beck Were A Cyborg," — in which author David Correia goes to the recent Singularity Summit and finds that the "Singularity Movement" is "made up of university scientists, technocapitalists, and military funders" and is a tool of... "the bourgeois dream of class domination and faith in technoscience"... and that it hides "its corporate face with scientific fact, military control with techno-enthusiasm, and ruling class ideology for general human benefit."
So there I am curiously reading along, when I come to this sentence in the third paragraph: "The journal, H+ (Humanity Plus), along with a host of institutions, centers and even universities advance a research agenda many refer to as 'transhumanism' in which the problems of human intelligence and immortality are primary subjects." And for a moment, I wondered: what is this H+ Journal? And then it hit me. He's talking about us! Us? A Journal?! A tool of the ruling class yet. Does that mean my all volunteer staff can finally get paid? I'm chuffed! Jeeves, fetch my saddle and bring Mr. Ed out to the courtyard. It's time to celebrate with a round of Polo!
My question was... what is a "military funder"? Isn't the military funded by taxpayers, making us all "military funders"..?
New START Treaty Up for Senate Ratification Tomorrow
H/t NTI.
There are a lot of "optimists" out there that seem to think that the probability of nuclear war between the US and Russia is close to nil. Those optimists should oppose this treaty because of the restrictions it puts on the US nuclear deterrent. However, I find it more likely that most of these so-called "optimists" dismiss the possibility of nuclear war (which could even start by accident) because they are simply too psychologically frail to cope with the thought of it -- i.e., textbook irrationality.