See the summary here, download it at the little box towards the lower right. Title: “Anthropic Reasoning in the Great Filter”.
A major part of this effort is asking the questions, “what are different possible reference classes for anthropics/Doomsday Argument and what do they imply?”, and “can we agree on updating our probabilities for being close to the Great Filter (whatever is responsible for the Fermi Paradox) if we aren’t absolutely certain what reference class we’re in?”
Read this first.
My current position is that it’s extremely unlikely that life would develop to our stage because we live in a simple universe where even the evolution of consciousness is a miracle, but if it never happened, we’d never be around to observe it, so we happen to find ourselves in a universe where it did happen — but just barely. Because there are many more simple universes (without life) than those with it (assuming whatever process generates universes in the multiverse generates more simple universes than complex ones), we should assume to find ourselves in one of the most abundant universes (we’re typical, after all), we just happen to find ourselves in a universe that is common enough that it’s simple, but complex (and consciousness-biased) enough that at least one conscious species evolved in it.
Is the universe really as simple as all that? Max Tegmark has published a paper arguing that the universe may in fact contain close to zero information.