Accelerating Future Transhumanism, AI, nanotech, the Singularity, and extinction risk.

3Feb/1163

Converging Technologies Report Gives 2085 as Median Date for Human-Equivalent AI

From the NSF-backed study Converging Technologies in Society: Managing Nano-Info-Cogno-Bio Innovations (2005), on page 344:

2070
48. Scientists will be able to understand and describe human intentions,
beliefs, desires, feelings and motives in terms of well-defined computational
processes. (5.1)

2085
50. The computing power and scientific knowledge will exist to build
machines that are functionally equivalent to the human brain. (5.6)

This is the median estimate from 26 participants in the study, mostly scientists.

Only 74 years away! WWII was 66 years ago, for reference. In the scheme of history, that is nothing.

Of course, the queried sample is non-representative of smart people everywhere.

Comments (63) Trackbacks (0)
  1. Interesting. Some of this is really pie in the sky, especially parts relating to the humanities/education/culture etc. Some of this is correct but probably pessimistic in timelines (they predict wide spread personal genomics in 2035).

    (Your link is broken btw. There’s an extra ‘ at the end)

  2. My book attempts to prove that we had hardware power to do Strong AI decades ago.

  3. 2020: “8. Uninhabited combat aircraft will launch, navigate, identify targets, evade threats, and return to base autonomously, requiring commands from humans only to fire weapons.”

    Okay, so they don’t really identify targets and evade threats as well as they might, but wasn’t the Air Force already using Predators in 2005?

    I bet full human-level AGI will show up before 2085. Still, it makes a good upper-bound.

  4. If they are able to have

    “25. Devices connected directly to the nervous system [that] will significantly enhance human sensory, motor, and cognitive performance. (6.8)” (in 2030)

    it seems they would know enough about the brain to build a new one.

    Also, if we had these hardwired machines helping us think, wouldn’t that speed everything along?

    Good upper bound though, I agree.

  5. The main problems, at least from my view is memory bandwidth and total memory, agi as implemented in nature trades memory for relatively short times, real time operation in few cycles, with the optical interconnect technology from ibm and related developments in solid state. High bandwidth to about 100+TB of data will be possible in the near future. That’s the kind of hardware I estimate is necessary, at least for anything that resembles the natural solution.

    As for the complexity of the problem, I’m reminded of anthropologists and their mythical tall tales, many neuroscientists do everything in their power to exaggerate the complexity and marvels of the brain.

    • As for the complexity of the problem, I’m reminded of anthropologists and their mythical tall tales, many neuroscientists do everything in their power to exaggerate the complexity and marvels of the brain.

      LOL, AGI aint’t gaming, bandwidth isn’t “the problem”, absence of design (to be copied) is the problem…

      • A normal person cannot handle evolved designs, even in areas such as antenna design even with artificially implemented evolution, the cookie cutter recipes of engineers leave them dumbfounded when faced with something demandind understanding of the fundamental.

        A person with fundamental understanding of the nature of the problem can understand even evolved designs… no cookie cutter recipe in a memorized bottle, but pure understanding of the fundamentals.

        Memory Quantity and Bandwidth are the problem. You can’t trade memory for cycles if you ain’t got the memory nor bandwidth to trade. There exists a complexity ceiling towards any problem, a ceiling the human mind can grasp, anything above this ceiling is pure rube-goldberg run around inefficiencies that can be worked around.

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