Maybe it’s nothing at all! Maybe. Still, I have enough room in my thoughts to consider this, even if the probability is low. I don’t think anyone has the expertise to say for sure one way or the other.
A real analysis would involve probability distributions over solar energy flux and expensive tests on electronic equipment.
This is a good test case for our reasoning on global risk probabilities — are we quick to make unqualified judgments, or are we willing to spend the time to find the facts?
A commenter pointed out that scientists actually predict that this solar maximum will be the least intense since 1928, but this prediction is meaningless because below-average solar maxima can still be extremely intense:
“If our prediction is correct, Solar Cycle 24 will have a peak sunspot number of 90, the lowest of any cycle since 1928 when Solar Cycle 16 peaked at 78,” says panel chairman Doug Biesecker of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center.
It is tempting to describe such a cycle as “weak” or “mild,” but that could give the wrong impression.
“Even a below-average cycle is capable of producing severe space weather,” points out Biesecker. “The great geomagnetic storm of 1859, for instance, occurred during a solar cycle of about the same size we’re predicting for 2013.”
Does this mean that every 13 years is a significant danger? If so, then that lowers my estimated probability of disaster significantly. The problem is that I’ve switched my opinion back and forth already based on the evidence, and I have no way of knowing if this will continue.
The next solar maximum will be the first to present a significant danger to our technological systems, and by extension, advanced societies across the globe.
During previous solar maxima, the greatest danger was to our national power grids. This remains a small but significant risk. The worst case scenario is that large portions of the power grids are knocked out for a number of days. The effect this would have on our societies depends on our level of preparedness for such an event. The corresponding risk is obviously increased for advanced First World societies which rely heavily on electrical energy for the functioning of almost all areas of society.
The second major risk, which is essentially new to this solar maximum, is that of severe and extended degradation of GPS signals. GPS is increasingly relied upon, not only for navigation but for the timing and synchronization of IT systems. This there is the potential for disruption of systems not directly effected by geomagnetic storms. Again, the level of risk posed depends on our ability to prepare for and mitigate the effects of breakdowns in GPS-dependant systems.
In either case, with sufficient planning and preparation, the direct effects are likely to be short in duration (1-2 weeks), with long-term consequences limited to the financial costs incurred in dealing with the damage.
COMET 2012 S! – COMET ISON:
Epoch = 2013 Dec. 14.0 TT
T = 2013 Nov. 28.8704 TT Peri. = 345.5614
e = 1.000000 Node = 295.6595 2000.0
q = 0.012453 AU Incl. = 62.3643
comet will be in the vicinity of the Sun at solar maximum
NOAA SWPC SunSpots for March 2011 ( alone ) presented a significant vertical rise, the April 2011 SunSpot chart was ‘removed’ and replaced by a ‘very small image’ that cannot be viewed at the official FTP website location.
Official evidence presented in 2006 after SOHO MDI instrumentation plus historical data as far back as 80-years prove “2011″ ( ‘not’ 2012 or 2013 ) as the year “we all need to be concerned about.”
http://conceptactivityresearchvault.wordpress.com/2011/03/17/solar-maximum-sepe-effects
Thank you for your review.
- CARV
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