Accelerating Future

Transhumanism has been defined as the use of science and technology to improve the human condition, and the aspiration to go beyond what is traditionally defined as human, but it can be something broader: rational self-improvement while disrespecting the boundaries set as typical. There’s a lot of “self-improvement” out there, and a fair deal of promoting rationalism in debate and analysis, but these don’t always come together. For instance, a highly rational individual might spend their entire day in front of a computer, neglecting exercise, and failing to take opportunity of a huge category of potential self-improvement. Conversely, someone preoccupied with “self-improvement” might believe in trendy nonsensical ideas about self-improvement, such as elements of Buddhism.

People usually start off in life with a certain set of aptitudes, such as brains, social skills, strength, or looks. A fun way of embracing life is to try to maximize these qualities no matter where you start out on them. Even though I tend to fall on the “nature” side of the nature-nurture debate, I still think there is a tremendous amount that can be done to improve shortcomings that people make excuses to avoid improving. Social skills would be one example — several transhumanist friends of mine have remarked how they used to be socially inept, and now are clearly extremely comfortable in social situations, because they made simple choices, like joining a rationalist community or a debate team.

This broader transhumanism means feeling personally obliged to improve yourself, both for your own benefit and for those around you. Let me focus a little bit on those around you, because there’s been so much discussion on improving for yourself. Many groups and communities are only as strong as the average of their weakest members, due to aggregation effects that can be hard to explain. That’s why an effective team working towards a goal needs to have every member be disciplined; one undisciplined member can be a thread that unravels the whole tapestry. When you neglect your physical appearance, your social skills, or your intellectual standards, you don’t just hurt yourself, but those around you. Of course, no one can be perfect. The point is not to be perfect, but to at least try to improve, and put your ego aside to the extent that you are willing to accept criticism from others, sometimes even so-called “unconstructive” criticism. “Unconstructive” criticism tends to contain a grain of truth that can be the seed for future self-improvement.

Because the body is the seat of the mind, and the human animal’s mind is deeply interconnected with their body, the first priority of self-improvement should be a healthy lifestyle. Being overweight is linked to anxiety and depression. Exercise is connected to positive mood, self-esteem, and restful sleep in dozens of studies. Rigorous exercise, rather than lazy shortcuts, lead to real benefits. It’s not really a question of time — tremendous benefits can be gained by exercising rigorously for as little as 30 minutes a couple times a week. There is no one who is too busy to exercise. A transhumanist who professes to be interested in transcending the human who is too lazy to exercise is like a Christian who is too lazy to pray or attend church — a lemming attaching themselves to a social label rather than someone who can live up to the ideas they value. You have the tools to improve yourself now — take advantage of them! Don’t sit around for decades waiting for a pill to solve all your problems. If you aren’t active yet, starting thinking of yourself as the type of person who should be active, and behavior will follow.

After making a commitment to improving the body, you should improve your mind. Intellectuals should be expected to have a book in their queue pretty much perpetually. Books are quite cheap, and there is so much to learn that anyone not reading is someone who is neglecting their intellectual curiosity. Articles on websites tend to be short and emotionally charged, not the kind of careful analysis or inspired literature that exists in books. Reading quippy front-page articles on Reddit or Digg is not a good cornerstone for a balanced intellectual life. Don’t even get me started on television. I’m not saying that people shouldn’t get information from diverse sources, but that the true foundation of intellectualism is, and has always been, books. “Infotainment” like the Colbert Report is just entertainment.

After you get your information, you have to process it properly. Be aware of cognitive biases. Never trust anything you think the first time. The greatest enemy of rationality is not the church, or the mainstream media, or the Republicans/Democrats, but your own brain. A true rationalist can be exposed to the most idiotic information sources and still extract useful evidence and insights by applying their own frame to the facts, rather than using the framing of the presenter. A rationalist does not get emotional while arguing, because nine times out of ten, emotions get in the way of proper analysis. Do a cold, clean analysis first, then, maybe a few hours or days later, you can start indulging in the emotions that flow from true beliefs. Maybe it’s even best never to get emotional at all! Emotions are fast-and-frugal heuristics for processing information, far inferior to dispassionate analysis. I like to get emotional about issues that aren’t really important, like my favorite songs or games. For those issues that really do matter, like geopolitics, social psychology, philosophy, and science, I try to keep emotions to a minimum.

Don’t be so sensitive. We are all idiots in comparison to what is possible. Human beings are just monkeys, a node on the chain of being. One day in the not too distant future, minds will be created that put all of our best to shame. Don’t worship the human spirit as if it were a god. The human spirit is nice, but it has plenty of flaws. People are balanced when they are slightly skeptical about everything by default, not when they embrace everything by default. Remember that skepticism triggered the Enlightenment, and if it weren’t for skepticism, we would probably still be in the Dark Ages. Praise people who are skeptical of your ideas in good faith, don’t discourage them.

Improving ourselves is not easy. That the definition of “improvement” itself has many subjective elements is part of the challenge, though many types of improvements tend to be self-evident in retrospect. The hardest part of improvement may be the willingness to make yourself vulnerable to criticism from others. All of us have our downfalls — we’re overweight, lazy, irresponsible, or overconfident. To some degree, I am all of these things. I’ll bet most of you are too. Since everyone tends to have weaknesses, the idea is not to eliminate all weakness, or achieve some social standard of competence and then give up, but to whittle away at your weaknesses and reap the benefits from incremental gains. That’s what transhumanism is — slow improvement, using the best tools at our disposal. Never giving up, and never saying we’ve done enough. There is always more to do — more to read, more to learn, more to say, and more to act on. Go out and do it.

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Definition of “hard takeoff” (noun) from Transhumanist Wiki:

The Singularity scenario in which a mind makes the transition from prehuman or human-equivalent intelligence to strong transhumanity or superintelligence over the course of days or hours (Yudkowsky 2001). The high likelihood of a hard takeoff once a roughly human-equivalent AI is created has been argued by the Singularity Institute in Yudkowsky 2003.

Hard takeoff sources and references, which includes hard science fiction novels, academic papers, and a few short articles and interviews:

Blood Music (1985) by Greg Bear
Fire Upon the Deep (1992) by Vernor Vinge
“The Coming Technological Singularity” (1993) by Vernor Vinge
The Metamorphosis of Prime Intellect (1994) by Roger Williams
“Staring into the Singularity” (1996) by Eliezer Yudkowsky
Creating Friendly AI (2001) by Eliezer Yudkowsky
“Wiki Interview with Eliezer” (2002) by Anand
“Impact of the Singularity” (2002) by Eliezer Yudkowsky
“Levels of Organization in General Intelligence” (2002) by Eliezer Yudkowsky
“Ethical Issues in Advanced Artificial Intelligence” by Nick Bostrom
“Relative Advantages of Computer Programs, Minds-in-General, and the Human Brain” (2003) by Michael Anissimov and Anand
“Can We Avoid a Hard Takeoff?” (2005) by Vernor Vinge
“Radical Discontinuity Does Not Follow from Hard Takeoff” (2007) by Michael Anissimov
“Recursive Self-Improvement” (2008) by Eliezer Yudkowsky
“Artificial Intelligence as a Positive and Negative Factor in Global Risk” (2008) by Eliezer Yudkowsky
“The Hanson-Yudkowsky AI Foom Debate” (2008) on Less Wrong wiki
“Brain Emulation and Hard Takeoff” (2008) by Carl Shulman
“Arms Control and Intelligence Explosions” (2009) by Carl Shulman
“Hard Takeoff” (2009) on Less Wrong wiki
“When Software Goes Mental: Why Artificial Minds Mean Fast Endogenous Growth” (2009)
“Thinking About Thinkism” (2009) by Michael Anissimov
“Technological Singularity/Superintelligence/Friendly AI Concerns” (2009) by Michael Anissimov
“The Hard Takeoff Hypothesis” (2010), an abstract by Ben Goertzel
Economic Implications of Software Minds by S. Kaas, S. Rayhawk, A. Salamon and P. Salamon

Critiques

“The Age of Virtuous Machines” (2007) by J. Storrs Hall
“Thinkism” by Kevin Kelly (2008)
“The Hanson-Yudkowsky AI Foom Debate” (2008) on Less Wrong wiki
“How far can an AI jump?” by Katja Grace (2009)
“Is The City-ularity Near?” (2010) by Robin Hanson
“SIA says AI is no big threat” (2010) by Katja Grace

I don’t mean to say that the critiques aren’t important by putting them in a different category, I’m just doing that for easy reference. I’m sure I missed some pages or articles here, so if you have any more, please put them in the comments.

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Luke at Less Wrong has made a concise post listing resources for CEV research. CEV stands for “Coherent Extrapolated Volition”, a research direction for the Friendly AI problem.

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This is a dialog that grew out of an email conversation with Rick Moss, author of the recent book Ebocloud, which explores futuristic social networks combined with brain-computer interface technology. I find the topic interesting and am curious about work in this area.

Rick Moss:

Michael, here’s our question: Could a Social Singularity occur? You’re thinking, without a respectable definition of the term, what’s the point of asking? Granted, the usage of Social Singularity found out there is rather arbitrary. Mostly, it seems bloggers are tossing it around in an attempt to sex-up concepts like crowdsourcing and the “hive mind” without any sense of responsibility.

So I’d like to (humbly) offer up a reasonable definition based on ideas I stumbled into when writing my recently published novel, Ebocloud. I think it’s worth going through the exercise, and here’s why: a Social Singularity might very well be a heck of a lot more favorable to the human race than a plain old Singularity. Stay tuned to learn why.

As we all know, a Singularity is a technological mash-up that results in smarter-than-human intelligence. Unfortunately, the physical limitations of human gray matter tends to be the spoiler for Singularity theories that count on making people part of that smarter-than-thou equation. Neurons can only transmit electrochemical signals so quickly and they can’t multiply geometrically in the brain like computing power (as per Moore’s Law). That makes it more likely that the self-learning computers will win the ultimate Singularity Jeopardy match. Kind of scary.

In my Social Singularity theory, corporeal limitations don’t go away. In fact, they’re embraced. Let’s get into it.

For a Social Singularity to occur, I see certain conditions that will need to be met. The first: human minds—and a lot of them—will need to be networked to a very powerful computer network (let’s call it a cloud, since that’s the configuration of choice these days), presumably by way of brain computer interfaces, or BCIs. (This is the way it’s done in Ebocloud, details to come.) The objective of the human-cloud collective is to facilitate a feedback loop whereby human sensory data and biometrics are uploaded to the cloud to be aggregated, analyzed and used in various applications, then redistributed back to the human participants.

No, human nervous systems are not geared for data-intensive, multi-media input and output, so in my scenario, the cloud applications must be content with collecting small amounts of data from the humans (wirelessly transmitted to the cloud). And whatever information is sent back to the people must be in small, relatively modest packages.

Michael, we’ll get back to the big Social Singularity question, but based on what I’ve told you so far, can you imagine applications hosted on a cloud network that could be used by thousands of wirelessly networked human participants? Given their physical limitations, what if any potential do you see?

Michael Anissimov: What resolution? The resolution of sensory data and biometrics really matters. In a certain sense the internet already exchanges sensory data and biometrics so you’re being too vague here for me to say anything.

Ever heard of Quantified Self? They are doing this now. It’s written about in one of the most popular books on Amazon, “The Four-Hour Body” by Tim Ferriss. So in its mild form it already exists, not really futuristic because it’s already here…. but you probably mean something else.

RM: Yes, definitely something else. The Quantified Self movement is self-centered, whereas the applications I’d like to explore here would be for the general benefit of the species. Yes, Mr. Ferriss is selling a lot of books promising to “prevent fat gain while bingeing” and “produce 15-minute female orgasms” (not that there’s anything wrong with that). Ebocloud offers a glimpse of a possible evolutionary step for humankind. (How could it possibly compete in book sales?)

But to answer your question, Mr. Ferriss recommends such self-biometrics as weighing your own feces. You’re the scientist; I’m just the crackpot sci-fi author, but I’d say we’re looking to go lower res than that. Let me fill in some more details.

In Ebocloud, the massive humanitarian social network of the title is distinguished from rivals (i.e., Facebook) by its emphasis on physical-world interaction. And so the founding scientists want to augment the experience with a wearable interface that will allow users to sense the presence of their fellow members and work with them in close coordination. What they come up with is a BCI called a dToo (digital tattoo). Laser-bonded in substrate layers to the skin on the inner wrist, the device incorporates wireless technology to connect with “the cloud” and integrated circuitry bonded to the nervous system by way of nanotubes that seek out nerve endings. (It’s sci-fi…just go with it.)

After the dToo is applied, a map is made of the subject’s nervous system and two-way communication, at a rudimentary level, is established. And yet it’s quickly proven that when accurately administered, simple impulses sent to the minds of participants in a group can be used to great affect. Minor sensory stimulation coupled with neurotransmitter (e.g. dopamine) triggers indicates the presence and relative position of others in the network. Apps are developed to coordinate group movement so that work relief activities and arts projects take on super-human grace and efficiency. Essentially now an extension of the cloud network, the users begin to experience occurrences of spontaneous orchestrated movement analogous to herd behavior. (Picture schools of fish shifting in undulating rhythms.)

So Michael, given that we’re in the realm of speculative fiction, this is all highly … well, speculative, but yes… the challenge is working with low res information but administered to hundreds of thousands of participants. Do you begin to see possibilities?

Michael Anissimov: The Quantified Self movement is not at all based just around the individual, the whole point of recording the data is so that people can share it, compare their progress, and notice high-level generalities that would have been obscured if it weren’t for the recording. Also, I’m not a scientist, just a science writer.

The idea of a “digital tattoo” connected to brain-stimulating and brain-computer interfacing nanotubes is interesting, but wouldn’t it be easier to just have the tattoo on the head instead of the wrist? Anyway, sure, I see possibilities in this area — probably more scary ones than positive ones, because people already seem socially conformist enough, but I’m not sure. The first obvious beneficial application that comes to mind is the military.

Why would this work better with the military than in more a popular culture context? A couple reasons; 1) the military lives and works together exclusively, while civilians wander around between schools, work, yoga class, cycling club, etc. The idea of a select group of people binding together at the exclusion of all other people, like a cult, would be too socially shocking to take off very easily at first, 2) the military has more of a need for social cohesion and organization than civilians. Civilians do things casually, and generally are forgiven for small mental mistakes at work, whereas in the military, accurate coordination and communication is a matter of life or death.

Another fundamental limitation is the family unit. People are genetically programmed to place their family above other forms of social organization, in almost all cases. Non-familial, non-traditional forms of societal organization are often viewed with suspicion. That’s not to say that they don’t exist. Certainly there is the counterculture. This leads me to think that this system would be more likely to be adopted by countercultural groups, possibly with extremist goals. Why? Not because the technology is inherently sinister, but just because extremist groups have the desire to cooperate and communicate more effectively with a group, and most everyday folks do not. Many people already feel overbearing control at work — a digital tattoo that magnified that, in a work context, would clearly be unwelcome.

In a more positive context, I can certainly see artistic or cultural collectives using the technology to augment traditional activities such as theater and dance.

RM: Yes, I agree you need a terrifically strong social construct for the Social Singularity to occur and also that traditional groups aren’t at all idea. We might look to tap the power of online social networking but, unlike Facebook and such, there needs to be a driving sense of purpose. That’s what the ebocloud.com invention is all about. The ebocloud adherents are highly motivated to a) help themselves and their families, b) help their fellow members in the network and, c) improve the world (most likely but not necessarily in that order).

Ebocloud.com is based on an extended family concept first floated by Kurt Vonnegut back in the early ‘70s when he was inspired by the Ebo tribal culture of Nigeria. New ebocloud members are profiled and assigned to tribes, or “ebos”, each providing a mutual support system for “ebo cousins.” The sprawling cloud network is set on an open source app platform so members can organize ebo activities, running the gamut from neighborhood work parties, arts programs and pot-luck dinners to disaster relief efforts.

Ebocloud.com is a democratic, bottom-up organization, awarding “Kar-merits” to members for their altruistic efforts­—merit points they can draw on when they are themselves in need. The member devotion to ebocloud becomes cult-like, yes, but the founders build in checks and balances against individuals assuming power over the general will of the membership.

The ebos (each named for a different wildflower) are spread across the globe but work face-to-face within communities. At a point, the “cousins” take to tattooing their wrists with their wildflower insignias so they can recognize each other in public. Acknowledging “ebo-ink” becomes an important ritual. That’s why the ebocloud scientists go for a digital tattoo on the wrist, to mimic the social convention that has been adopted by the cousins.

It’s a fictional scenario, of course, in which all the pieces fall into place, resulting in a Social Singularity. I’m not asking if it would happen this way in reality, but if it perhaps suggests a formula by which one might occur.

MA: I’d agree more broadly that something like this could occur in the 2020s or 2030s if people formed groups around topics they thought were most compelling. Religious groups, like Christian, Jewish, or Islamic groupings, come to mind.

The most important thing about the Singularity is creating a transhuman intelligence. You can only go so far with combinations of humans, whatever superficial flourishes you put on them, be it a digital tattoo, karma points, or whatever. In retrospect a “Social Singularity” would more likely be seen as an ambient dynamic contributing to some specialist actually doing the neuroengineering or AI research necessary to launch a real Singularity. In retrospect, it will be the neuroengineering or AI that was seen as being the most crucial feature, not the social nature of the group that that spawned it.

I think the idea is interesting, but more like a pre-Singularity social phenomena, a “hyper-Facebook”, than anything else. It seems like the general human desire for socialization stays about the same, distributed in a bell curve, and isn’t heavily impacted by technology. The existence of Facebook did not necessarily make everyone hyper-social. Highly social people use it to socialize extensively, and those who aren’t very social to begin with don’t use it for that purpose.

If you’re talking about something with direct connections to the pleasure center of the brain, I would certainly call that neuroengineering, but unless the device is actually improving the quality of the information being processed, you still have the same old stupid humans. Hooking humans up to each other and hooking them up to drugs has already been done, but the scenario you describe does make it deeper. Maybe something like an ebocloud will herald a repeat of the 1970s. I think whether or not such a technology catches on will depend on the vibe of the era. The 1980s, for instance, were highly individualistic while the 1970s were communal.

RM: As the hypothesis is presented in Ebocloud, there is a distinct opportunity to, as you say, “improve the quality of the information being processed.” The transhuman superintelligence is achieved as “the cloud” network gains access to the sensory input of millions of dToo-bearing people. Imagine the network of supercomputers gathering stimuli from the sight, hearing and physical sensations of the tens of thousands attending a stadium event, aggregating it along with third party data, “stitching” it all together into a “vision” of the event, then feeding that unimaginably rich sensory experience back to the audience. And then, imagine these augmented human perceptions uploaded again to the cloud. It is in this feedback loop that I see the possibility of a singularity spontaneously occurring, but of course, only if the software designers are up to the task of channeling the resulting confluence of human/computer intelligence into something constructive or artistic. Otherwise, it’ll be noise multiplied geometrically.

In the Ebocloud scenario, I see social networking as integral to the achievement of a singularity, not as some precursor to such. Although I agree with your thinking that the technology’s adoption may depend on the “vibe of the era,” I see market forces being much equally influential. I expect that commercial social media firms will be flush with extra cash for R&D in the next ten years, as will the developers of personal digital devices and BCIs. The likes of Apple, Google and Facebook, with their billions to burn on wild-eyed notions, could very likely spur technological leaps in these areas. It would be nice if these developers were at least aware of the possibility of a social singularity so that they don’t stumble into the phenomenon blindly. That could be tragic.

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From Humanity+ website:

The main strength of Humanity+ has always been its membership. The members of Humanity+ run the organization, elect leadership, fund projects, and help advocate for the transhumanist cause.

Thousands of people worldwide already identify as transhumanists, but still might not know how they can contribute to building a better future with technology. That’s why we’re announcing the Humanity+ Aubrey de Grey Advocacy Prize, which will be awarded this summer to whoever can refer the largest number of new Full, Plus and Sponsor Members before July 1st. The Advocacy Prize includes:

- Lunch with Humanity+ Advisor Aubrey de Grey, a leading advocate for anti-aging research
- A free pass to any 2011-2012 Humanity+ conference, including the first-ever transhumanist conference in East Asia, this fall in Hong Kong
- Free Humanity+ Plus Membership for a year
- A free Humanity+ T-Shirt and mug
- A free transhumanist book of the winner’s choice, along with a copy of Aubrey’s book Ending Aging
- A page listing the winner’s name and biography on the Humanity+ website at humanityplus.org
- A personalized, engraved Lucite trophy

You can apply to win the Advocacy Prize today by emailing us at info@humanityplus.org, or by filling out this easy form. We’ll send you free tips on how you can market effectively, tell people about transhumanism and compete for the Prize. Apply today!

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