Society for Risk Analysis Annual Meeting Presentation
This is just a reminder that I will be presenting at the Society for Risk Analysis annual meeting in Salt Lake City on December 5-8. The meeting is open to anyone interested in risk analysis. Registration is $500. Robin Hanson and Seth Baum will be there as well. My presentation will be part of the "Assessment, Communication and Perception of Nanotechnology" track. The full session list is here. Seth will be chairing the "Methodologies for Global Catastrophic Risk Assessment" track, where Robin will be giving his talk.
Here's my abstract:
T3-F.4 14:30 Public Scholarship For Global Catastrophic Risks. Anissimov M*; Singularity Institute
Abstract: Global catastrophic risks (GCRs) are risks that threaten civilization on a global scale, including nuclear war, ecological collapse, pandemics, and poorly understood risks from emerging technologies such as nanotechnology and artificial intelligence. Public perception of GCRs is important because these risks and responses to them are often driven by public activities or by the public policies of democracies. However, much of the public perception is based on science fiction books and films, which unfortunately often lack scientific accuracy. This presentation describes an effort to improve public perceptions of GCR through public scholarship. Public scholarship is the process of bringing academic and other scholarship into the public sphere, often to inform democratic processes. The effort described here works on all GCRs and focuses on emerging technologies such as biotechnology and nanotechnology. The effort involves innovating use of blogs, social networking sites, and other new media platforms. This effort has already resulted in, among other things, a visible online community of thousands following the science around GCRs, and plans to further move discussion of scholarly GCR literature into the mainstream media. It is believed that public scholarship efforts like these can play important roles in societal responses to GCRs.
Here's Professor Hanson's abstract:
W3-A.3 14:10 Catastrophic Risk Forecasts From Refuge Entry Futures. Hanson RD*; George Mason University
Abstract: Speculative markets have demonstrated powerful abilities to forecast future events, which has inspired a new field of prediction markets to explore such possibilities. Can such power be harnessed to forecast global catastrophic risk? One problem is that such mechanisms offered weaker incentives to forecast distant future events, yet we want forecasts about distant future catastrophes. But this is a generic problem with all ways to forecast the distant future; it is not specific to this mechanism. Bets also have a problem forecasting the end of the world, as no one is left afterward to collect on bets. So to let speculators advise us about world’s end, we might have them trade an asset available now that remains valuable as close as possible to an end. Imagine a refuge with a good chance of surviving a wide range of disasters. It might be hidden deep in a mine, stocked with years of food and power, and continuously populated with thirty experts and thirty amateurs. Locked down against pandemics, it is opened every month for supplies and new residents. A refuge ticket gives you the right to use an amateur refuge slot for a given time period. To exercise a ticket, you show up at its entrance at the assigned time. Refuge tickets could be auctioned years in advance, broken into conditional parts, and traded in subsidized markets. For example, one might buy a refuge ticket valid on a certain date only in the event that USA and Russia had just broken off diplomatic relations, or in the event a city somewhere is nuked. The price of such resort tickets would rise with the chance of such events. By trading such tickets conditional on a policy that might mitigate a crisis, such as a treaty, prices could reflect conditional chances of such events.
Doubt Thrown on Uncle Fester’s Botulism Recipe
In the comments, Martin said:
I wonder how accurate it is. Uncle Fester became underground famous in the 90s when he published books on meth and acid manufacture, but other clandestine chemists criticized his syntheses for being inaccurate.
From this small snippet, it sounds like he wants you to go out and find the right Clostridium species and strains in soil and culture them yourself, which sounds as impractical as his suggestion in the acid book to grow acres of ergot-infested rye. :)
Any more comments on why this is impractical? It sounds much simpler than growing acres of ergot-infested rye. He describes how he would isolate spores, first by heating the culture (this kills anything that is not a spore), then encouraging growth in an anoxic environment (kills anything that is not anaerobic). This leaves only anaerobic bacteria derived from spores.
The book does claim that botulinum germs are "fussy about what they like to grow in, its pH, and its temperature" and that "This need to exclude air from the environment where the germs are growing is the most difficult engineering challenge to the aspiring cultivator of Clostridia botulinum", so he's not saying that it's a cakewalk.
Of course, many of these underground books (Anarchist Cookbook...) are rife with misinformation. Anyone serious about producing botulism toxin would need actual biochemical knowledge and multiple corroborating sources. Still, there's a lot of information in this particular book that would at least provide a compelling starting point.
It's worth noting that Uncle Fester probably never synthesized all the compounds described in his book, which includes over half a dozen different types of nerve gas. He repeatedly points out that synthesizing these chemicals is a risk to the life of the person performing the synthesis. In some parts of the book, he names sources, like literature released by the military, but the vast majority of his book lacks citations.
Instructions for Mass Manufacture of Botulinum Toxin Freely Available Online
Properly delivered from a plane, a few grams of botulinum toxin could kill hundreds of thousands, if not more, in a major city.
Silent Death by "Uncle Fester" has the full process instructions, including details on optimal delivery.
The LD-50 of botulinum injected into chimpanzees is 50 nanograms.
Combine it with effective microbots, and you have a situation where anyone can kill anyone without accountability.
This is one of the reasons I want a Friendly AI "god" (really more like a machine) to watch over me is that the dangers will simply multiply beyond human capability to manage.
Here's a bit of an excerpt from my version of Silent Death:
Botulin is the second most powerful poison known, taking the runner up position to a poison made by an exotic strain of South Pacific coral bacteria. The fatal dose of pure botulin is in the neighborhood of 1 microgram, so there are 1 million fatal doses in a gram of pure botulin.
The bacteria that makes botulin, Clostridia botulinum, is found all over the world. A randomly chosen soil sample is likely to contain quite a few spores of this bacteria. Spores are like seeds for bacteria, and can withstand very harsh treatment. This properly will come in very handy in any attempt to grow botulism germs, because other germs can be wiped out by heating in hot water, leaving the spores to germinate and take over once they cool down. Much more on this later.
Another very important property of botulism germs is that they can't survive exposure to air. The oxygen in it kills them, but does not kill their spores. Whatever toxin the germs made before their demise also survives. This needs to exclude air from the environment where the germs are growing is the most difficult engineering challenge to the aspiring cultivator of Clostridia botulinum.
Finally, all botulism germs are not created equal. There are subgroups within the species that make toxins that vary immensely in their potency. They are called types: A, B, C, D, E, F and 84. Type A is by far the most deadly, followed by type B and 84. THe other ones we won't even bother to discuss. Also within a single type, there are individual differences in how much toxin a given strain will produce. Breeding and gene manipulation have a lot to do with this, and our government (and the Russkies as well) have put a lot of effort into picking out strains that make an inordinate amount of toxin. The champion as of about 30 years ago was the Hall strain, but I'm sure that they've come up with something better since then. The Hall strain of type A was able to make 300 human fatal doses of botulin per ml of broth it grew in.
Here we will explore the two major levels of use for botulin as an attack weapon: the individual or small group assassination, and the large scale assault with the poison in a manner similar to nerve gas.
Very informative! As a Russian, I love the "Russkies" anachronism.
99.9% of the population will dismiss the above as not a big deal, due to wishful thinking. It's all just words on the page, until people start dying.
WSJ: Gains in Bioscience Cause Terror Fears
From The Wall Street Journal:
Rapid advances in bioscience are raising alarms among terrorism experts that amateur scientists will soon be able to gin up deadly pathogens for nefarious uses.
Fears of bioterror have been on the rise since the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, stoking tens of billions of dollars of government spending on defenses, and the White House and Congress continue to push for new measures.
But the fear of a mass-casualty terrorist attack using bioweapons has always been tempered by a single fact: Of the scores of plots uncovered during the past decade, none have featured biological weapons. Indeed, many experts doubt terrorists even have the technical capability to acquire and weaponize deadly bugs.
The new fear, though, is that scientific advances that enable amateur scientists to carry out once-exotic experiments, such as DNA cloning, could be put to criminal use. Many well-known figures are sounding the alarm over the revolution in biological science, which amounts to a proliferation of know-how—if not the actual pathogens.
Another bit later in the article:
All the government attention comes despite the absence of known terrorist plots involving biological weapons. According to U.S. counterterrorism officials, al Qaeda last actively tried to work with bioweapons—specifically anthrax—before the 2001 invasion of that uprooted its leadership from Afghanistan.
This is great. It's best to pay attention to obvious risks, like this, nuclear terrorism, the integrity of the power grid under solar storms, major earthquakes, etc., before they happen, not after. Often times, adequate preparation even requires little marginal effort.
Geomagnetic Solar Storms and EMP
I wish to qualify my statement in the previous post where I wrote, " I currently think that EMP attack is the second greatest risk we face, right behind a genetically engineered superplague."
What I should really say is that I think that any electromagnetic event that wrecks havoc on electronics is the second greatest risk, and that includes geomagnetic storms as well as EMP. I don't want the particularly vivid risk of EMP attack to distract attention from the fundamental point that the most critical nodes in our power grids simply need to be more protected.
EMP attack is controversial. The experts are divided. Scientists can agree, however, that a solar maximum is on the way for 2013, and it could rival the Carrington Event of 1858 in its intensity.
The Space Review has an article that argues that EMP attack is unlikely while geomagnetic storms are the real threat.
Welcome to 1850: The Risk of EMP Attack
I am concerned about the PR aspects of the EMP attack risk communication over the last couple years. Awareness of the EMP risk has spread much faster among the extreme right than any other portion of the political spectrum. This is already making it highly unfashionable.
Given the year (2010), I currently think that EMP attack is the second greatest risk we face, right behind a genetically engineered superplague. A small EMP-optimized nuke launched from a container ship in the Gulf of Mexico could take out the power grid of the entire continental United States. The same thing could be done anywhere, like Europe or Japan.
The facts are available from the Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Attack. No one cares except the Fox News crowd. It wasn't like this only a few years ago: EMP attack was primarily a topic limited to analysts and sci-fi TV show writers. Obama seems concerned about nukes in general (which presumably includes the EMP risk that emanates from them), but not many on the left share his concern. People are too busy worrying about global warming. The aging Henry Kissinger is not a good spokesman for the nuclear security movement.
If an EMP attack came, cars and trucks would just stop. Factories, controlled by computers, would stop. Molten steel on the assembly line would cool and solidify in place due to failure of the heating elements. The vast majority of tractors, combines, and other heavy machinery would become useless. Transformers and other electrical elements, large and small, would be fried. The largest transformers have to be ordered from China and are generally ordered with a year of lead time.
An effective EMP attack on the US would cause tens of trillions of dollars of damage. Cities would run out of food in a few days. The US grain stockpile only has about a million bushels of wheat. Wheat is the only common grain with enough nutrients to sustain someone on an all-grain diet. A bushel is only 60 pounds, and someone needs about a pound of wheat a day to avoid hunger pangs. Ideally two pounds if you are doing manual labor. 60 million man-days of food is not a lot. The population of the United States is 300 million. That means our grain stockpiles are enough food for everyone to eat a fifth of a pound and then they're gone.
The long-term prognosis will depend on how hard it will be to get crucial electronics for trucks and tractors in. If security collapses a few weeks after an EMP attack, foreign companies may be reluctant to do business here.
For a few tens of billions of dollars, we (the US) could shield our most important infrastructure from EMP attack. Our power grid is so naked and unprotected right now, we are practically asking to be nuked.
58% of Americans Expect World War and Nuclear Terrorism by 2050
Here are the results from Pew Research. Thanks to James Hughes on the ieet-x list for the link.
H+ Lund: Who Works on Existential Risks?
Here is the short list from H+ Lund, the student transhumanist society based in Lund, Sweden.
A member of H+ Lund, Abraham Wolk, is currently an SIAI Visiting Fellow.
According to Wikipedia, Lund is one of the oldest cities in Sweden.
Anti-Aging/X-Risk/AGI Proposals in Top Ten at PCAST
About 35 people voted for the two proposals yesterday, bringing the AGI/x-risk and anti-aging proposals to Rank #4 and #6 respectively. This is not bad, but we should do better, logging at least two hundred votes for each of these proposals. While we're at it, why not throw in this proposal to protect the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse attack?
Currently there is not a lot of competition for these three proposals. Based on my current understanding, the biggest risk for which there is currently substantial evidence for the imminent danger of is EMP. EMP is probably the most radical risk the government could actually bring itself focus on here in 2010, so I think it's definitely worth voting for the more precise "EMP attack" in addition to the existential risks in general proposal.
Let's show the President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology that these initiatives are important to us and have strong grassroots support.
Register and vote now! Share this link on Facebook!
Lifeboat Foundation X-Risks Network: A Bayesian Network, Debate Graph, and Project Tracking System for Existential Risks
A recent email from Eric Klien, President of the Lifeboat Foundation:
Michael,
The Lifeboat Foundation is ready to begin work on an ambitious project
called the Lifeboat Foundation X-Risks Network. Our page for this project
is https://lifeboat.com/ex/x-risks-network Our mailing list/forum for
this project is at
http://groups.google.com/group/lifeboat-foundation-x-risks-network
To get invited to the discussion on our mailing list/forum, send an
email with the subject "Lifeboat Foundation X-Risks Network" to
membership@lifeboat.com.The goal of the X-Risks Network project is to combine a bayesian
network, a debate graph, and a project tracking system all into one
graph. The project is focused on tracking progress on existential risk
reduction and then determining the most leveraged ways to help reduce
existential risks.This project is an extension of the debate graph idea posted to
http://lesswrong.com/lw/1qq/debate_tools_an_experience_report/1l1w which
is an extension of the Transhumanist Wiki's Scenarios Project at
http://transhumanistwiki.com/wiki/The_Scenarios_ProjectOur plan is to create a text based PHP program that does a subset of our
goals and to add graphics to the program after feedback has shown that
the program is useful. Examples of PHP's graphics capabilities can be
seen at http://www.php.happycodings.com/Graphics/index.htmlWe are soliciting input on how best to do this project and what parts of
it should be tackled first. If you would like to be part of this
discussion, please let me know.Eric Klien
Lifeboat Foundation
This is an excellent initiative. It could be a big deal if smart people consider it valuable enough to spend their time on. I would like to add to it sometime after Singularity Summit is over. If you are someone who hasn't contributed anything to the fight against existential risks yet, but feel capable of doing so, this would be a great opportunity. Especially if you are an academic, you should get in touch with me about this project.
Robert Lecnik, one of the originators of this idea, has already pledged $2,000 to the project. This is a great project because anyone with substantial knowledge about existential risks can contribute, even if you have no money to donate. Conversely, if you have money to donate and no time to contribute, you can give money instead. I really think that this project could gain the attention of the media and the public, if done right. Attractiveness and simplicity of the interface will be paramount!
Patrick Lin in London Times: “The Reality of Robocops”
Patrick Lin is spreading the valuable message of roboethics:
They have everything the modern policeman could need - apart from a code of ethics. Without that, a Pentagon adviser fears, the world could be entering an era where automotons pose a serious threat to humanity.
The robots need to be hack-proof to prevent perpetrators from turning them into criminals, and a code of ethical conduct must be agreed while the technology is nascent.
The article mentions that there are currently over 7 million robots in operation, about half of them cleaning floors.
Steve Jurvetson and Survivalism
Here's my favorite part from the Times article, mostly because it was the only part that was really new to me, and it provides validation of my personal beliefs.
Steve Jurvetson, a director of Synthetic Genomics, is part of a group of very rich, very bright Singularity observers who end up somewhere in the middle on the philosophy’s merits — optimistic about the growing powers of technology but pessimistic about humankind’s ability to reach a point where those forces can actually be harnessed.
Mr. Jurvetson, a venture capitalist and managing director of the firm Draper Fisher Jurvetson, says the advances of companies like Synthetic Genomics give him confidence that we will witness great progress in areas like biofuels and vaccines. Still, he fears that such technology could also be used maliciously — and he has a pantry filled with products like Spam and honey in case his family has to hunker down during a viral outbreak or attack.
“Thank God we have a swimming pool,†he says, noting that it gives him a large store of potentially potable water.
Jurvetson is a paragon of competence and worldliness. He's nothing like the popular stereotype of a survivalist as a gun-toting far right loony bin. I would point to him as a strategy of silencing critics of preparedness and survivalism.
Unfortunately for Jurvetson, the fancy homes in the hills of Silicon Valley are likely to be the first to be invaded and looted when the you-know-what hits the fan. Perhaps he has a survival retreat somewhere else and a private helicopter, though. If so, I applaud him for his wisdom and foresight.
It's shocking how many life extensionists out there obsess day and night about what food they do or don't eat, but are completely unprepared for even a short cutoff of basic services. Food tends to be a particularly fertile ground for lunacy and obsession. The Golden Bough provides a good background of this phenomenon, which of course stretches back thousands of years.