Writings on the Technological
Singularity and Safe Artificial Intelligence:
Computer
Programs, Minds-in-General (Artificial Intelligence), and the Human
Brain (offsite) At some
point, brains made out of substances besides animal neurons will
exist. What will that mean? Will an intelligence that computes with
silicon think at the same rate at one that computes with proteins?
Heck no. And that's just the beginning of the huge differences between
human brains, computer programs, and artificial intelligences that
you should know about. Although no true Artificial Intelligence
exists yet, it seems smart for us to more closely examine the ways
in which they will be different from humans, so we can formulate
policies for its arrival sensibly.
Cooperating with New Intelligence (Artificial Intelligence) (pdf)
As Moore's Law continues to accelerate and cognitive scientists are
beginning to uncover the underpinnings of general intelligence, the
creation of true Artificial Intelligence is becoming a real, near-term
possibility. Since true AI would be able to think at speeds millions
of times faster than humans, custom-design new cognitive components,
and recursively self-improve, it's important for humanity's well-being
that the first AI built possesses a robust and self-reinforcing benevolent
morality. If we fail to prepare and just let the chips fall where
they may, the result could be a recursively self-improving AI with
no empathy for humans.
Beyond Defaults: Transhuman Intelligence
(printable)
One of my personal catchphrases is: "never expect the default
to be optimal." Just because it's there doesn't mean we should
accept it. The default is just what happens to be around when we get
here, but why not try doing better? We apply this reasoning very well
in certain contexts and very poorly in others. For example, some people
assume that Homo sapiens is an optimal species, or, complain
about Homo sapiens without offering potential improvements
or alternatives. The latter is what this essay is mostly about.
Forecasting
Superintelligence: the Technological Singularity (offsite)
Oxford philosopher Nick Bostrom defines a "superintelligence"
as "an intellect that is much smarter than the best human brains
in practically every field, including scientific creativity, general
wisdom and social skills". At what point will the creation
of such an entity become technologically possible? Must we know
every detail about how the human brain works before we are able
to build an artificial intelligence? Is superhuman artificial intelligence
really that much more difficult than human-level artificial intelligence?
Futurism at the intersection of computer science and cognitive science.
Deconstructing
Asimov's Laws (offsite) This is my contribution
to AsimovLaws.com, the Singularity Institute's web project whose
release was timed to coincide with the appearance of the "I,
Robot" film in theatres. "I, Robot" featured a bunch
of robots spontaneously running amok when their programmatic constraints
(Asimov Laws) collapsed. Sadly, there are people who still take
Asimov Laws seriously. People that don't take them seriously are
really proud of themselves at seeing the laws as fictional (as Asimov
did), but their proposed alternatives are often equally useless.
The study of AI morality needs to be turned into a scientific discipline,
built on the foundations of cognitive science and information theory.
Writings on Technological
Singularity activism:
Who
Are Technological Singularity Activists? (offsite)
Long paper describing what "Technological Singularity activists"
are. Singularity activists are people trying to create a smarter-than-human,
kinder-than-human intelligence, because we view the human mind as
one particular type of mind, a mind potentially subject
to improvement along intellectual, emotional, and moral axes, among
others. We figure that transhuman intelligences, properly constructed,
will be far more capable of coming up with ideas to help
people with their problems than we humans are. This is not worship
of some speculative higher being, but straightforward common sense.
We are not so arrogant to assume that the human species represents
some ideal of inferential, moral, or intellectual optimality. We
must reach beyond the default human template for creative solutions.
Who
Cares About the Technological Singularity? (offsite)
A list of prominent scientists and futurists concerned
with the arrival of the so-called "Technological Singularity".
Includes familiar names such as Stephen Hawking and Sir Martin Rees.
Considering the controversy surrounding futurist concepts such as
the Singularity, I consider it worthwhile to point out people who
take it seriously. These are straight-faced academics seriously
discussing topics like superhuman intelligence and the Technological
Singularity. Former flights of fancy are now acquiring scientific
foundations!
Simple
Ways You Can Help the Technological Singularity (offsite)
Confronted with such an abstract idea, futurist
thinkers may find it difficult to give up the business of pure futurism
and turn some attention to activism - directly creating the future
rather than merely speculating about it. People are often raised
with the assumption that mankind's future is entirely created by
Ph.Ds and top-level politicians, but this view is ultimately naive.
The world's military colleges and research labs suffer from a sort
of technological tunnel vision that results in their missing out
on the implications of areas such as nanotechnology and superintelligence,
leaving a minority with the responsibility of ensuring that these
technologies are developed safely.
Achieving
the Technological Singularity (printable)
The Technological Singularity offers a huge humanitarian
opportunity, allowing us to tap the power of transhuman intelligence
and recursive self-improvement and direct it towards good ends.
A successful Singularity would signify our safe passage through
possibly one of the most difficult transitions in human history.
There is no better way to maximize human freedom, open up as many
possible opportunities, and heal as many ills as through the creation
of something inherently benevolent and significantly smarter and
faster-thinking than we are. The Singularity could be humanity's
biggest and last life-threatening challenge.
A Short
Page Introducing the Technological Singularity (onsite)
This is my example of a page I think that everyone
concerned with the Technological Singularity should have. It says
a little bit about myself and how I got into futurism, followed
by a description of the possibility of transhuman intelligence and
some links. The Singularity is an idea just starting out - much
like nanotechnology was in the 80s. In order to accelerate awareness
about this important idea requires that we get the word out. This
page took two minutes to make, please consider making your own.
Who are Singularitarians?
(onsite) A shortened version of "Who
Are Technological Singularity Activists"? One day greater intelligence
will be technologically possible, and we can't assume it will be
in the form of an enhanced human being. It could arrive in the form
of an AI, and if it does, we want to make sure that that AI has
the goal system complexity necessary to understand and value qualities
like empathy, peace, compassion, etc.
Writings on life
extension:
Immortalist Utilitarianism: the Value
of Life Extension (onsite) What makes
life worth living? Why do some people eat healthily and exercise
to extend their lifespans? Why do some people advocate cryonics?
Can we quantify moral desirability? If 80 years of happy, fulfilling
living is desirable, would 800 years of happy, fulfilling living
be 10 times more desirable? This document examines the relationship
between immortalism and utilitarianism.
Fountains
of Youth: Hacking the Maximum Lifespan (offsite)
This is a piece I did with R.U. Sirius, cyberpunk pioneer and former
editor of the magazine MONDO2000, the precursor to WIRED magazine.
R.U. interviewed myself and Cambridge biogerontologist Aubrey de Gray
for the website "The Neofiles", sponsored by Life Enhancement
Products, a nutritional supplement company. Various questions about
progress in the control of aging on cellular and genetic levels, and
the philosophy of immortalism. I even get to mention nanotechnology
and cryonics!
Objections
to Immortality: Answering Leon Kass (printable)
An article I did for the nonprofit Immortality Institute in February
2003, responding to the latest outbursts of the government bioethicist
Leon Kass. Mr. Kass is basically pushing to outlaw all life extension,
and if he scares enough people, it could actually happen. Not only
could this kill billions who would rather live than die, but it
damages the overall intellectual environment which futurists are
operating within, stifling the fruition of further beneficial technologies
and the corresponding freedoms they would unlock (Virtual reality,
nanotechnology, space programs, etc.) However, Mr. Kass's specific
stance against the prospect of indefinite lifespans may help convince
bystanders of its near-term technological feasibility, perhaps resulting
in a net positive. It's really hard to say. This article was also
published in the Extropy Institute's online magazine "Extropy".
Writings on molecular
nanotechnology:
My Position on Nanotechnology Administrative
Policy (pdf)
(printable)
At some point in the next decade, possibly as early
as 2006, someone will create a molecular assembler - a submicroscopic
programmable robot with the ability to make copies of itself. This
will quickly lead to nanofactories, desktop appliances capable of
synthesizing practically any product you could possibly want based
on software specifications, for only the cost of raw materials.
If these nanofactories are administrated and deployed responsibly,
we could greatly benefit from their use, but if not, we could all
be dead.
More Dangers
From Molecular Nanotechnology (printable)
This page was written as an add-on to the Center
for Responsible Nanotechnology's page on the subject. Nanotechnology,
when it arrives, will reshape every facet of human society. It will
be a tidal wave of new technological abilities for humanity - and
these abilities will be used both for good and for evil. In order
to prevent abusive or ignorant applications of such an advanced
technology requires that we visualize the dangers and prepare for
them.
Writings on futurism
and transhumanism:
What
is Transhumanism? (onsite)
Short document summarizing transhumanism, introducing existential
risks and the Technological Singularity. Transhumanism is an extension
of the popular philosophy of humanism, a worldview that places human
beings and human abilities in central focus. Ethics in humanism
derive from what individual humans care about.
Accomplishments
of Transhumanist Organizations (onsite)
A series of overviews of the concrete accomplishments
of transhumanist organizations and individuals associated with them.
I feel that having a list of these accomplishments would be a good
idea, because it's convenient to see them all in one place, plus
it will help encourage people to get involved. Nine organizations
reviewed so far. Please send me an email if I missed anything.
Future
Shock Level Analysis (onsite)
Analysis and expansion of a popular classification
scale for various types of futurism. The "Future Shock Levels"
scale helps one make decisions about which futurological concepts
to present to which audiences; for example, you wouldn't want to
talk about nanotechnology to someone who isn't familiar with genetic
engineering or nuclear fusion. The interesting thing about the Shock
Levels is that there seems to be a fairly regular migration from
one end of the spectrum to the other, although this is not entirely
certain. If this phenomenon does not hold for the whole scale, it
at least holds for a major chunk of it.
Transhuman
Intelligence and Altruism (onsite)
A relatively short piece on transhuman intelligence
and altruism. A rant of sorts - winds through several related topics.
I'm generally arguing that transhuman intelligence and altruism
really need to go together, that altruism is a real thing, and how
much better the world could become if it were saturated with altruistic
transhuman intelligence. Whether or not this eventually comes to
pass, of course, will depend upon our actions in the present.
Tips for Transhumanist Activists
(onsite)
Ah, the wonders of complaining about how your friends and associates
should be acting. That's part of what this paper is about! Meant for
the audience of people who are attempting to be transhumanist activists,
this paper includes a few suggestions for making the most out of your
presence. Don't be a lazy cheerleader or ride on the coattails of
others; you too can be the "ideal success story"! (If you're
wondering what on Earth a "transhumanist activist" is, or
why they should even exist, check out the link to the Transhumanist
FAQ, three links down.)
Transhumanist
FAQ (offsite)
I didn't actually write this. Oxford philosophy professor Nick Bostrom
did, and I just put it here to get you to go read it. I'm trying
to show that respected academics and intellectuals are spending
their time considering (and pioneering) transhumanist issues, because
they're genuinely important. This particular piece is about the
philosophy/technological movement I'm a part of, "transhumanism",
which originally descends from humanism and continues to rapidly
acquire sympathizers and adherents. Notice how transhumanist ideas
have been steadily seeping into the mainstream for years now.
Writings on reason and rationality:
A Concise
Introduction to Heuristics and Biases (onsite)
Rather than approaching each problem from the ground
up, the human mind uses heuristics - rules of thumb - to confront
and solve problems in a cognitively economical fashion. Unfortunately,
while these heuristics are very effective for solving certain problems,
they often break down. Since these biases are so deep-rooted and
practically universal, experience - even decades of experience -
fails to remove them. They must be isolated empirically and formally
debiased.
Online interviews:
Happily Ever
After: An Interview with Michael Anissimov (offsite)
A delightful interview I did with Phil Bowermaster of Speculist.com,
a great futurist blog. And what a cool title for my first formal interview,
none the less! Phil has been working in the fields of IT and Telecommunications
for the past 15 years, where he spent 4 years in Malaysia and helped
lay a variety of communications networks. The interview is on extreme
life extension, transhumanism, AI, and the Singularity.
Seven
Questions with Michael Anissimov (offsite)
Another interview with the Speculist. Short set of questions about
the future. The answers highlight my opinions regarding the future;
I strongly emphasize unknowability, transhuman technologies, greater-than-human
intelligence, and the Singularity. (The usual.) Good intro to my
worldview, which resonates strongly with the worldviews of fellow
futurists Eliezer Yudkowsky and Nick Bostrom.
Personal miscellanea:
Statements I Agree or Disagree
With (onsite) Opinions, so many opinions.
Distinct opinions are a big part of our individuality. Even if they
can't always be completely correct, I advocate the communal sharing
of deep opinions, and oppose the withholding of opinions for PR
or embarassment reasons. Interesting fact: if we never used the
sincere opinions of others as "ammo" to degrade them or
their ideas during heated arguments, then people would be a lot
more open about sharing them in the first place. Be tolerant of
each other's deep, sincere opinions! Otherwise all conversation
just turns to small talk.
My Current
Ideological Platform (onsite)
Everyone has an ideological platform, whether we
pay attention to its existence or not. Rather than letting my platform
pull at me from the mysterious darkness, or keeping it as a secret,
I like throwing it out into the unshielded open, so it can be criticized
and discussed. My current platform revolves around some nontrivially
abstract and complicated anchors, though. Enjoy!
Quotes I
Like (onsite)
Quotes I like, but don't necessarily agree with
entirely. Most of them I agree with, though. Example: "Science
itself, therefore, may be regarded as a minimal problem, consisting
of the completest possible presentment of facts with the least possible
expenditure of thought." -- Ernst Mach. Send in any quotes
if you think of any I might like!
World Peace
Through World Domination (onsite)
Ever wanted to wipe out poverty, disease, war, and
aging, think you may know how, but are worried that pesky governments
or international mega-corporations will get in your way? Look no
further, "World Peace Through World Domination" is the
strategy you need. (Humor.)
Intelligent
People with Interesting Ideas (printable)
Throughout the course of my life, I've been influenced
profoundly by a series of contemporary thinkers. I believe that
the possibilities of advanced technology totally change how we should
think about philosophy, planning, science, politics, et cetera,
so only thinkers who understand advance technology have truly up-to-date
ideas. Here they are!
10 Reasons
to Do Stuff (onsite)
Why try to live as long as possible, enhance human
intelligence, develop safe nanotechnology, safe artificial intelligence,
or learn more about science and technology? This document lists
10 reasons for each.
Why Intelligent People Fail
(onsite) An interesting question, isn't it?
Even though intelligence in IQ sense is a powerful indicator of
real-world success, sometimes certain variables intervene to prevent
a high IQ person from reaching their full potential. Since I'm sure
all my readers have extremely high IQs, they might find this list
interesting.
|