… for the same reason that probabilistic correlation isn’t transitive.

Whether Japan would have surrendered without nuclear weapons in WW2 is relevant to how we should think about nuclear weapons and morality. How likely the Emperor’s dog was to suddenly die on Aug 10, 1945 is relevant to whether Japan would have surrendered without nuclear weapons in WW2. But how likely the Emperor’s dog was to suddenly die on Aug 10, 1945 is not relevant to how we should think about nuclear weapons and morality. Not even a little bit.

If we looked closely, what percentage of the internet would we find is devoted to debating the health of the Emperor’s dog?